Yahoo announces planned sale of its stake in Alibaba by June 30?

The relationship between Yahoo and Alibaba, a Chinese e-commerce site which controls Yahoo's operations in China, is not going well.

The companies have been joined since 2005, when Yahoo paid $1 billion for a 40% share of Alibaba and turned over Yahoo's Chinese operations to the firm. Alibaba has been profitable in recent quarters, and is reportedly on an expansion and investment spree.

Even before Yahoo appointed Carol Bartz as its new CEO, Alibaba was very vocal in asserting its independence, declaring "we will do things our own way." The Chinese company is also looking for partners to expand its own brand in the United States. However, a source "close to the relationship" says that relations have soured since Bartz took control of Yahoo at the beginning of this year. According to the source, Bartz had no contact with Alibaba during her first two months in office and then told the Chinese company that it wanted its China operations back.

Bartz has also been on a tear to dump redundant or non-core services, while beefing up underperforming services that are crucial to the company's success. In an early interview, Bartz said Yahoo should create new markets, both geographic and vertical.

Prediction: There will be an announcement on or before June 30, 2009 that Yahoo intends to sell its 40% stake in Alibaba. There has to be an official announcement, blog post, or a press quote from a named official from one of the two companies for this prediction to be positively judged. However, the date of the sale does not need to be stated, just the fact that Yahoo intends to sell it.