Submitted by The Standard02.07.2008
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This prediction is closed and has been judged.
UPDATE: The Yahoo/MS story is still unresolved to this day. However, in terms of the prediction not occurring, the community was correct. --The Industry Standard
We recently closed an aggressive prediction which predicted Yahoo! would accept the Microsoft bid by Feb 6th.
The Industry Standard community felt that the time-frame was too short, and correctly bet against that prediction by 46%. Any prediction that closes under 50% suggests that the community believes a particular prediction/event will not occur.
We are recreating this prediction now with a closing date further into the future, to give this more time to be vetted.
The original deal, it seems, has caused a serious wave of activity. Microsoft shareholders are upset, Yahoo employees appear to be upset, Google seems upset. Something is going to happen fairly soon, that much is certain.
The prediction is that Yahoo will accept some sort of acquisition bid from Microsoft bid by mid-March.
Prediction Statistics
| Betting Closes: | Mar 15 2008 | Current Consensus: | 2.19% | Total Bets: | 227 |
| Today's Change: | 0% | ||||
| Life Time High: | 51.25% | ||||
| Life Time Low: | 2.19% |
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Comments
This should be closed and judged. It has been widely reported that Yahoo is rejecting MS' offer:
http://www.infoworld.com/article/08/02/11/Yahoo-says-Microsoft-offer-und...
That isn't definitive, if you read the prediction closely. It says, "The prediction is that Yahoo will accept some sort of serious investment from Microsoft bid by mid-March." It does not state that Yahoo will reject the initial bid by Microsoft.
The headline should be changed to "investment" instead of "acquisition". Those are two very different scenarios. I bet against either way, yahoo! is profitable and doesn't "need" the $$. From a search perspective they have the larger share of audience than MSN so it's unlikely they will see a big value in being owned by smaller share msn (if search is what msn is after). The combination of the two does not make any sense since they have very different cultures and combined are still not enough to topple google. If yahoo! could get their house in order I think they could mount an attack themselves through smart acquisitions, however, their track record is poor. Just ask Mark Cuban who got a shiny new NBA team with yahoo! money for video assets Yahoo! divested of (possibly too early now with video taking off).
Agreed, Andrew. The headline specifically states that Yahoo will accept Microsoft's acquisition. Accepting "some sort of serious investment from Microsoft" is not the same as accepting an acquisition bid. Yahoo has quite specifically rejected Microsoft's acquisition bid.
A number of articles have even been posted here to The Standard stating that:
http://www.thestandard.com/news/2008/02/11/yahoo-says-microsoft-offer-un...
http://www.thestandard.com/news/2008/02/11/whats-behind-yahoos-rejection...
http://www.thestandard.com/news/2008/02/11/update-yahoo-says-microsoft-o...
http://www.thestandard.com/news/2008/02/09/wsj-yahoo-reject-microsoft-of...
The original intention of this Prediction was not whether Yahoo would accept some sort of investment from Microsoft. It was that Yahoo would accept Microsoft's acquisition bid. The judgement should follow the spirit of the prediction (and the letter of the prediction's title), not try to get out on a technicality that "investment" was mentioned in the body.
So what is the actual defining factor, if you are judging this based on "serious investment from Microsoft bid"?
Since they've rejected the original bid, does this mean Microsoft has to make another bid, which Yahoo then accepts? Or does this mean that Yahoo will change their mind, and accept the bid after all by mid-March?
I don't really feel comfortable making a prediction bet on this until it has been clarified as to how this is going to be judged.
Elayne, it means Yahoo will accept an offer to merge (i.e. acquisition bid) by Microsoft within the given time frame. There could be three before this is settled, for instance. With Yahoo formally declining the initial bid, they can't "change their mind." They can, however, try to get even more money and accept a higher bid, or large investment, as pointed out by Andrew above. The initial bid prediction was closed before the news came out about the Yahoo's rejection, as it had a very aggressive closing date. This prediction is broader than that.
So, the headline had changed. Firstly, we heard that "Yahoo to reject Mircosoft's buyout offer" . And today the talk among some of the analyst is "Yahoo think that Microsoft 's offer under value the internet company". Well, that mean the "talk" of Microsoft acquisition of Yahoo is still very much alive. Its now about how much Yahoo want to sell and how much Mircosoft want to pay !
I am convinced that this is a deal that will happen .....
I tend to agree with you Francis. Although, the speculation that went out today that News Corp may be interested in throwing in a bid is a very interesting concept. Seems very speculative, but interesting nonetheless.
Yahoo! board is melting under pressure according to new reports. This is probably a good thing for Microsoft as they turn up the heat in an attempt to get a deal done. Unless more serious offers start to come watch for Yang to get ousted and the board to capitulate to Microsoft demands. I don't think mid-March is realistic but sometime in May is certainly possible.
If this goes into a proxy fight, it sounds like this could go way beyond the March 15 deadline for this prediction to come true. Andrew 9 is right, this could drag on for some time if Yahoo resists. http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/02/19/microsoft-to-authorize-prox...
"Google Stock price' at google.com. Survery says>>>>>>>> Yahoo finance, first search result. Google could not find its own stock price. . Yahoo fianace is yahoo's greatest asset as even google uses them....
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=google+stock+price
GOOG: Summary for GOOGLE - Yahoo! FinanceGet detailed information on GOOGLE (GOOG) including quote performance, Real-Time ECN, technical chart ... TheStreet.com Power Stock Rankings: March 4 ...
finance.yahoo.com/q?s=Goog - 45k - Cached - Similar pages
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