Submitted by The Standard02.01.2008
Thunderdome
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This prediction is closed and has been judged.
This prediction had an aggresive closing date of Feb 6, 2008. The bid was not officially accpeted by Yahoo by that time. The prediction was closed by the market, and the community consensus that the prediction would not occur was correct. A new predicition with a closing date for mid-March has been posted. --The Industry Standard
According to the New York Times, Microsoft offered an unsolicited bid to acquire Yahoo for $44.6 bilion.
This is a prediction that Yahoo will accept the healthy acquistion bid by MS.
If Yahoo accepts, the internet consumer business as it is known today will be no more. The overall control of eyeballs (Yahoo serves approximately 500 million pages a month) combined with Microsoft's MSN/Live suite customers on top of their ad networks could be enormous.
This rumor has been floating around for over a year. The bid has finally taken place. Betting in favor of this prediction implies you believe Yahoo will accept.
Price History
Prediction Statistics
| Betting Closes: | Feb 06 2008 | Current Consensus: | 46.26% | Total Bets: | 391 |
| Today's Change: | -9.96% | ||||
| Life Time High: | 62.25% | ||||
| Life Time Low: | 41.34% |
Comments
Oligopoly (corrected, where's the spell check Standard!?!) exists so no acquisition necessary at this time. More likely is MSN to buy ASK or AOL or another second or third tier search engine.
I believe this tender is a move by MSN to draw Google out of the weeds since there is talk of a partnership between the two.
My question is who are the four firm's in the search Oligopoly or is there one at work at all here?
Oligopoly
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Oligopoly is a common market form. As a quantitative description of oligopoly, the four-firm concentration ratio is often utilized. This measure expresses the market share of the four largest firms in an industry as a percentage. Using this measure, an oligopoly is defined as a market in which the four-firm concentration ratio is above 40%.
1) Oligopolies exist and are a great way to do business. 2) Microsoft has learned that its Midas touch is intermittent at best; having been burned in this space previously, they will seek to buy a quality player. 3) Google and Microsoft hate each other for a reason. If Microsoft is going to hit Google hard, they need Yahoo!
Wouldnt bet my life on it but overall to me it makes good sense. Jerry Yang-Gates.
More than likely Yahoo will accept the offer, but then will probably get nixed by the US DOJ because of the past dealings with Microsoft. It may well happen after the election to nix this deal but right now or even if this happened a year earlier the DOJ would have probably blessed this deal.
This is a "Hostile" take-over attempt by Google. Yahoo will likely reject Mr. Softy's offer. However, shareholders of Yahoo! may be much more likely to comply.
So, while I voted against Yahoo saying "I Do," I do think a forced wedding in in the cards.
But this story is still quite fresh. Google will do their best to make a counter offer or play the regulatory damsel in distress. It is too soon to make a good judgment on where this will go, but Microsoft has the bucks and Yahoo is a company in trouble.
Too bad that a MS/Yahoo merger probably won't give Yahoo what it needs most . . . a sense of direction.
And that's the way I see it,
The Dusty Sage
It's quiet likely that MSFT has got something up their sleeve; acquisition of Yahoo will give them an opportunity to implement. Google is right to be worried about this. After all, becoming a second Netscape is not a pretty picture.
well working Prediciton market, Good job guys
I think Google should be more than prepared for this event. I'd expect such a wise team to have a well thought out strategic contingency plan. You can't win this with PR, legal talk nor with last minute attempts to create strategic alliances. Microsoft is proving to be a wise old owl.
I believe MSFT will have to raise its offer to at least $37 per share.
Google & Yahoo have worked together previously & this is the reason why Microsoft is bidding for Yahoo. However I don't think Google is going to take it easy, as Microsoft-Yahoo together would be
very good competition for Google.
This will result in MS raise the bidding amount per share. & surely Yahoo won't be accepting the offer by the said date.
You know where I've put my money on ;)
It's too cheap.
Yahoo will at a minimum reject this offer to get MSFT to increase the bid
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