Submitted by Yi-Wyn Yen01.12.2009
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This prediction is closed and has been judged.
Judgment made on March 18, 2009: Rollouts of Microsoft's Silverlight 3, but no launch date announced for Windows 7 yet. The community judged this correctly. -- The Industry Standard
Microsoft rolled out its first public beta version of Windows 7 on Jan. 9 after CEO Steve Ballmer hyped up the product during a CES keynote speech. Clearly there was a lot of interest for the newest PC operating system. Microsoft made Windows 7 available for download to the first 2.5 million users, and the company's servers had trouble keeping up with the demand in the first couple days.
Microsoft execs have remained vague on when Windows 7 will ship for this holiday season and have warned PC makers that the official launch could be in early 2010. ZDNet blogger Ed Bott puts an aggressive July 2009 time frame for the new OS because the Windows 7 beta version expires on August 1, 2009.
Prediction: Microsoft will announce an official release date for Windows 7 between now and the opening keynote of the Microsoft MIX09 conference on March 18, 2009. For this prediction to be judged a success, MSFT must state that the Windows 7 release be no later than March 31, 2010.
Price History
Prediction Statistics
| Betting Closes: | Mar 18 2009 | Current Consensus: | 1.98% | Total Bets: | 26 |
| Today's Change: | -5.61% | ||||
| Life Time High: | 65.70% | ||||
| Life Time Low: | 1.98% |
Comments
@Yi-Wyn, can you please clarify what you mean by "release date"? Will any announcement for a specific date, month (i.e July '09) or quarter (i.e. 3Q09) be sufficient? Will a statement of "sometime in 2010" or "no later than x" be sufficient? Also, will a tentative date be considered favorable?
IMO, for a favorable judgment, an official statement with explicit date is needed. I know this question focuses on judgment on technicality but I feel that this needs to be clarified to avoid any confusion (at least to me).
David, for clarification, release date such as as specific date, month, or quarter will be sufficient. If Microsoft states that Windows 7 will be released in fall 2009 or early 2010, that will work too. So far, MSFT has shied from commenting on a specific time frame.
@Yi-Wyn, if the above comment is accurate, then if MSFT came out saying "no later than 2012", then a favorable judgment can still be rendered. IMO, this makes the criteria for judgment relatively weak (as MSFT could take an pessimistic view on date to extend the life of Vista which is beginning to gain some traction after the Mojave experiment while giving them the flexibility to release it earlier).
Perhaps, an additional criteria that if announced, the release date is no later than X where X can be 1Q09. It adds more credibility to any announced time frame when it is a lot closer to current date. Just a thought.
Why would you want it if its anything like vista its not worth putting got computing hardware to waiste on an operating system thats probably just as unstable as vista. I've vista on my work computer and everyday it malfunctions and does stupid things? and at home well it nearly took my brand new computer with it to the grave, thats why i stick to XP and am just looking into a unix system at least they work.
@David, I see your point. I think "no later than 2012" is a bit of a stretch and too vague. Given that MSFT has hinted that the date could be either Q4 2008 or early 2009, I will clarify the prediction to include that.
@Yi-Wyn, thanks. I think the clarification strengthens the prediction which makes it more interesting and playable with possibility of going either way.
@Yi-Wyn, BTW, I had a suggestion which has a 9-to-1 vote related to this as well
http://www.thestandard.com/predictions/suggestions/microsoft-releases-wi...
Hi David, this one does seem quite similar. I missed this one in the suggestion box. I'll be sure to be more vigilant before throwing up a prediction. Thanks for bringing this to my attention.
who cares what specific month it will come out...when it comes out it comes out, what I want to know is as a vista user will I have to pay for the switch? If so, having just got the computer and Vista advertisements still all over the place, I think I'm being ripped off...
My views: MS should stop messing us about now, XP is good and stable. People complain about Vista, Win 7 is a patch for Vista. To me Vista takes up space. XP is meant for home use, Vista needing more space is for companies, MS should look at marketing it this way. As with computers coming out, we cant keep up, thus same with MS, we just cant keep changing.
Windows 7 Release Candidate is out (Build 7048).
Well.. build 7048 was just a rumor. Official word from Microsoft is the RC build (7046) will be broadly available on April 10, 2009 with a caveat that no significant problems arise before then. Given that, it is almost a guarantee that an official Windows 7 launch date will not be ascertain before MIX09.
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