Submitted by Edward Beckham01.08.2009
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This prediction is closed and has been judged.
Judgment made on Jan. 21, 2009: Caroline Kennedy has withdrawn herself from consideration for Hillary Clinton's Senate seat. This prediction is ruled as not happening, which most of the community got right. -- The Industry Standard
Original prediciton: Hillary Clinton has been nominated to be Secretary of State under the Obama Administration. If Clinton is confirmed, her U.S. Senate seat will be vacant, requiring New York Governor David Paterson to pick someone to fill the vacancy.
Among those interested in filling the position is Caroline Kennedy, the 51-year-old daughter of late President John F. Kennedy. A recent poll conducted among New York State Democrats show support for Kennedy, currently holding at about 44 percent, compared with just 23 percent for the next leading contender for the slot, State Attorney General Andrew M. Cuomo.
Prediction: If Sen. Clinton is confirmed to be the next Secretary of State, Caroline Kennedy will be chosen to fill Clinton’s vacancy in the Senate. Kennedy will need to accept the position in order for this prediction to be judged favorably. * Note, The Industry Standard may adjust the prediction closing date as needed should there be a delay in appointment.
Price History
Prediction Statistics
| Betting Closes: | Jan 31 2009 | Current Consensus: | 17.51% | Total Bets: | 25 |
| Today's Change: | -27.51% | ||||
| Life Time High: | 56.22% | ||||
| Life Time Low: | 17.51% |
Comments
According to this article, there are 15 contenders in the running of which 10 has been interviewed by Gov. Paterson. Others in the running are New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi of Long Island, and Reps. Carolyn Maloney, Steve Israel, Jerrold Nadler, Kirsten Gillibrand and Brian Higgins.
Update: Caroline Kennedy officially interviewed over the weekend by Gov Paterson.
Looks like Caroline support for Senate is waning in the eyes of the public who now favors Cuomo.
If this Politico.com article is on the mark, Gov Patterson will pick someone who will increase his own popularity for a re-election in 2010. Unfortunately, based on recent polls, Caroline Kennedy is not the current popular public choice.
Cuomo or someone besides Caroline to be named
The above LINK posted by David Kuan to an NBC article is a misleading interpretation of the NBC article. Caroline Kennedy is not "out" as the above LINK in the comment assumes. In fact, the article cited by the above comment points out that "[I]n a CBS television interview Tuesday, Paterson noted that Kennedy impressed him, but Cuomo also has outstanding qualities." Additionally, the LINK renders a misleading title, it does NOT say that "someone besides Caroline to be named."
The reality is that it is not an easy one to call, but the answer is coming very soon, as "Paterson [is] to Announce Senate Choice by Saturday," as reported by the NY Times at: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/21/nyregion/21paterson.html?_r=1&hp
There is a very real chance that it could be Cuomo, but Kennedy is also a viable contender.
NEW YORK (Reuters) – Caroline Kennedy told New York Gov. David Paterson she is withdrawing from consideration to replace Hillary Clinton in the U.S. Senate, the New York Post reported on Wednesday, citing unnamed sources.
Kennedy, the daughter of slain President John F. Kennedy, has never held public office but launched an unusual public campaign to replace Clinton, who has been chosen by President Barack Obama to be secretary of state.
Anonymous source says she's out
IMO, the more likely story is that she was out of contention and the "act" of withdrawing name is merely a PR thing to "save face".
Just as I thought (from http://www.nypost.com/seven/01212009/news/politics/caroline_kennedy_ends...)
Caroline Kennedy tonight withdrew her name from consideration to replace Hillary Clinton in the U.S. Senate after learning that Gov. David Paterson wasn't going to choose her, The Post has learned
Speaking of Hillary Clinton:
There is bad news about her husband.
It is opined that Bill Clinton committed racist hate crimes, and I am not free to say anything further about it.
Respectfully Submitted by Andrew Y. Wang, J.D. Candidate
B.S., Summa Cum Laude, 1996
Messiah College, Grantham, PA
Lower Merion High School, Ardmore, PA, 1993
(I can type 90 words per minute, and there are probably thousands of copies on the Internet indicating the content of this post.)
_________________
“If only it were possible to ban invention that bottled up memories so they never got stale and faded.” Off the top of my head—it came from my Lower Merion High School yearbook.
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