Submitted by Garrick Hileman12.05.2008
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This prediction is closed and has been judged.
Judgment made on January 9, 2009: No Verizon iPhone was introduced at MacWorld. Verizon subscribers remain iPhone-less. -- The Industry Standard
Original prediction: Without question, the iPhone has revolutionized the wireless phone industry. Since its announcement almost two years ago, many diehard Verizon wireless subscribers have lamented the lack of a Verizon iPhone and been generally disappointed by the attempts of Apple’s competitors to deliver a Verizon “iPhone killer”.
Famously (or perhaps infamously), Steve Jobs & Apple actually approached Verizon first about the iPhone but were unable to come up with a deal. Enter AT&T (formerly Cingular), and the rest is history.
It has been reported that AT&T’s contract with Apple makes it the exclusive carrier for the iPhone for anywhere from two years (2009 expiration) to as long as five years (2012 expiration), to most recently reported three years (into 2010). This naturally has led to widespread confusion. The lockup has even landed the attention of politicians.
With the two year mark arriving in 2009, rumors galore are percolating about the iPhone coming to the Verizon network.
Prediction: Will Apple announce at 2009 MacWorld the availability of an iPhone on the Verizon network for sometime in 2009? For this prediction to come true an announcement about the future availability in 2009 need only be made. The Verizon iPhone does not have to be available for sale at MacWorld.
Price History
Prediction Statistics
| Betting Closes: | Jan 05 2009 | Current Consensus: | 10.43% | Total Bets: | 22 |
| Today's Change: | 0% | ||||
| Life Time High: | 48.75% | ||||
| Life Time Low: | 10.43% |
Comments
i predict that an announcement will be made that a verizon iphone is in the making....*fingers&toes crossed*. Im a loyal verizon customer for almost 5 years and would kill to have an iphone on verizon since at&t is a horrible service in comparison to verizon. I can guarentee you that ill be in lines the day a verizon iphone comes out!
This is extremely unlikely, unless Verizon considers going GSM.
@Robert, my thoughts exactly. CDMA EVDO Rev A is VERY different from UMTS HSPA from an air interface perspective. That means the guts of the radio in the handset will have to undergo significant changes which makes this highly improbable. Furthermore, the exclusivity license with AT&T is still in force.
@Steve, you might have to wait until Verizon and AT&T both deploys UMTS LTE (by which time the exclusivity would have expired). I can almost guarantee that Apple will not restrict itself to a sole carrier when LTE becomes the prevalent worldwide (for established mobile operators). Timeline is estimated around 2011-2012 timeframe (LTE standards as worked on by the 3GPP Rel 9+ are still in progress).
For those interested, check out 3GPP for UMTS and 3GPP2 for CDMA.
They just HAVE to accept the fact that the MOST popular cell phone of all time cannot stay exclusive to one provider for long..... Verizon iPhone in '09!!
I too have been a long time customer of Verizon and would love to have an iPhone. My colleagues' iPhones have questionable audio form the receiving side, making me always question the AT&T network.
Come on plp yeah verizon is okay but att rules i have an iphone and i love it the service att i providing is the best i couldnt ask for more and i hope that verizon dont get the iphone cuz att will suck so att an apple stay together so that plp can stay hating on us lol
As a die-hard Apple fan, I would be ecstatic if Steve Jobs would make the deal of the century with Verizon for 2009. Look guys, contracts are made to be broken. Even if the contract with AT & T is good through 2012, Apple can afford to pay it off and make the iPhone the most popular mobile phone in the world! Verizon & Apple would own the wireless industry. Apple would be crazy not to do it.
It would be awesome if Verizon came out with the Iphone, think of all the possibilities there would be. Their business would go even higher and become much more successful, apple should join forces with Verizon, they have best service, unlike AT&T. Hope for Verizon Iphone 2009!
@luis: AT&T may be the perfect service for you, but as you can see it is not for near half of wireless subscribers in the US, much less the world. Keep in mind that with the iPhone being exclusive, its exposure and customer base is limited and apple will want to expand that. With the iPhone going Verizon, it will of course still be available on AT&T, but will allow many users to gain an iPhone, especially those consumers who will not switch to AT&T due to it’s reception(AT&T is sketchy when it comes to reception, congrats on being one of the few who got lucky.)
@David and Robert: I disagree; Verizon’s CDMA is all digital and far superior to GSM. It will be some time before LTE (or 4G as it is referred to by those that didn't do their research) is widely available. There is no reason that the iPhone won't be made for CDMA other than the contract with AT&T, and Verizon’s security concerns. That said no one but AT&T and Apple know for sure what the terms of that contract are, and weather or not apple is willing to break it and pay. If that contract is up, it would only make sense that apple start looking to where it can expand next. You are right that CDMA and Rev A. is different which leads me to my last point
@Everyone: (I felt like staying consistent) There is one other thing that keeps Verizon and iPhone apart. Verizon's network is extremely secure and they want to keep it that way. In a sense that would mean limiting some of what the iPhone is capable of, or modifying it. This could take time and neither side wants to give in and let the other mess with their technology. I really hope that an iPhone will be available by 2010 for Verizon as that is when my contract ends. I'm doubtful, but hopeful. It's not impossible, and it would be worth it, but will apple do it?
@Inaudible, some interesting insight you offered. Let me add a few more pointers ....
1) Verizon Wireless CTO has outed accelerated deployment timeline of LTE to as early as late 2009 with wider deployment in 2010.!
(see http://www.fiercewireless.com/story/verizon-deploy-lte-late-2009/2008-12...)
2) Verizon was the first US carrier approached by Apple but business arrangement with revenue sharing hit major roadblock (where Apple probably asked for too much).
3) Verizon is using CDMA2000 1xRTT (2.5G) and EVDO Rev A (3G). AT&T and T-Mobile are using UMTS EDGE (2.5G) and UMTS HSDPA (3G). There are still deployed 2G infrastructure but are in the process of being phased out.
4) There are security provisions in both digital technologies, CDMA2000 and UMTS. Both are considered fairly secure. To say that Verizon's deployment is more secure than AT&T's deployment is probably debatable.
We've fielded a couple of tips (some more sketchy than others) about EVDO iPhones floating around Cupertino in the past, but today's tipster seems a little bit more sure of himself. Besides having some Verizon insider credentials, he seems to know way too much about Verizon-Apple politics. According to him, Apple will be announcing iPhones for Verizon Wireless in 2009, perhaps as early Macworld 2009. Negotiations between Apple and Verizon are ongoing but they expect to hammer out agreements by the end of the year.
This isn't a huge surprise for a number of reasons:
1. Apple has been scouting out EVDO and CDMA Engineers for months in their online iPhone job postings (here, here, here and here). Yes, some of these skills overlap with UTMS and CDMA can also refer to the broad swath of 3G Technologies...but come on...don't put "EVDO" on the job description if it ain't true.. (BTW, WiMax is also littered throughout Apple's Job postings...interesting/digress)
2. No matter how big AT&T is and how much range they cover, leaving out Verizon and to a lesser extent Sprint, will be eliminating a broad swath of the US wireless market. If Apple is serious about competing with Blackberry, Symbian and Android, they will have to broaden their carrier footprint. One carrier does not a platform make. Apple will need a way to grow its market after AT&T is saturated.
3. LTE technology won't be mature until well into 2010. Apple can't afford to wait that long to broaden its carrier footprint
4. Who is happy with Rogers in Canada (*crickets*)? EVDO opens up to new carriers there as well.
5. Verizon wireless is a partnership between Verizon communications and Vodafone. Vodafone, you'll recall, has contracts with Apple for iPhones in around 15 markets around the world. Apple has a working relationship with Vodafone (and Tmobile obviously).
6. Apple has just started going "Open" in a few markets, including Hong Kong. This will likely increase the number of unlocked 3G iPhones on the world market (South Africa is also open). While this won't benefit Verizon directly, it certainly shows that Apple is considering being more "carrier agnostic."
7. Tim Cook, famously said that Apple wasn't married to the one carrier/country model. As Apple expands, it is going more and more open.
8. Verizon's iPhone Cheat sheet was weak and their arguments about Stevo getting old were silly. They'd rather play ball with Apple than try to defend itself against it.
9. Apple originally wanted to go with Verizon for the iPhone. Some of the original disagreements included "not carrying the iPhone at Best Buy and hardware reliability" - see quote below. AT&T was a second choice. When Verizon balked, Apple went to AT&T...Think Verizon is happy about that decision (no) or willing to reconsider Apple's overtures (yes)?
According to Verizon, Apple CEO Steve Jobs insisted that he have hard control over iPhone distribution.
The problem? While Apple and Verizon stores would have it, Wal-Mart, Best Buy and other Verizon distributors could have been left out. "That would have put our own distribution partners at a disadvantage" to Apple and Verizon stores, Gerace said.
Customer care was another hitch: If an iPhone went haywire, Apple wanted sole discretion over whether to replace or repair the phone. "They would have been stepping in between us and our customers to the point where we would have almost had to take a back seat … on hardware and service support," Gerace says.
The number one reason people think AT&T is the only US carrier that Apple will visit is because a couple of falsely reported rumors by USA Today that "revealed" Apple has signed exclusivity deals with AT&T. Depending on whether you trust the original article which said it would be five years or the latest article which says two years, or any of the other speculation out there (CNN says 2009), nothing public has ever been uncovered that has specified the length of AT&T-Apple exclusivity deals. At the original iPhone announcement at Macworld 2007, Cingular's CEO Stan Sigmund indicated that Apple and Cingular had signed a multi(2?)-year deal. A Macworld 2009 launch would put the AT&T-Apple exclusivity at 18 months from mid 2007 launch, WWDC 2009 would be 2 years from launch. Add 6 months for time since the announcement.
There is no reason why Apple wouldn't also be chatting with Sprint and T-mobile about possible deals as well. We welcome some carrier competition in the US iPhone field.
The sooner the better.
@Chris, nice commentary. Would like to add another point ...
Qualcomm pretty has the IPR wrapped up for CDMA. This makes the cost of the radio component higher than that of UMTS. Qualcomm has just abandone d the UWB (which was originally the 4G path for CDMA2000) to focus on LTE.
OK, deep breath. There is a CDMA iPhone. It is in testing with Verizon. You can doubt me and you can flame, I'm not saying it will be announced at Macworld. I'm saying, from the conversations I've had (not with my mothers brothers friend's cousin who works in a call center BTW) who work at VZ (not VZW which as there have been some management changes is a bit of a distinction without much of a difference) regarding the current issues that have come up during testing...it exists, period. It's EVDO, whether or not it's a world phone wasn't answered (actually, I didn't ask).
@anonymous
If what u say is true, then what are these current issues that have come up? And any more info??
@David: It is scheduled to be deployed, but how long before everyone is using LTE? All I'm saying is that CDMA will still be around for a while after LTE is out, and that means that a CDMA iPhone will still have a wide customer base, making it worth their time to release one. And on the security side of it all, I know that every time I talk to my rep (I work for a Verizon dealer and our rep talks to us regularly) she always points out at some point that Verizon's network has never been hacked. I'm not saying it's more secure than AT&T because I don't know, but it is a strong point for Verizon.
On a side note, it’s been pointed out on many other sites that Verizon would add its "craptacular" interface to the iPhone. I just want to point out that no blackberry or Samsung Omnia sports Verizon’s interface and so it can be safely assumed that the iPhone will remain the iPhone we know and love.
@Inaudible, I do not believe that iPhone will be restricted to one carrier per country forever but it makes business sense to launch in this manner to expand internationally. You are correct that EVDO Rev A will not go away for a while. This is being reflected by the 3GPP work addressing the interworking of non-3GPP (i.e. EVDO Rev A) and LTE Radio Access Network (RAN) with EVDO Rev A core network (3GPP TS 23.402).
From a production sense, it is far simpler to deal with the logistics of production of a UMTS only model that can serve a majority of the wireless systems in the world (with some minor modification to the baseband to reflect specific carrier frequency spectrum). Case in point, the deal with China Mobile has not been consummated because it is not a pure UMTS system and would require radio component changes. The size of China Mobile subscribers (> 300M) is far greater than that of Verizon Wireless (< 70M).
IMO, ultimately, Apple will go multi-carrier per country. I just don't think it will happen in the immediate term.
I am tied to Verizon forever. My entire family uses that carrier and, with our children and relatives all over the country, it sure keeps expenses down with their Verizon-to-Verizon free calling. Nonetheless, I am an engineer and am sick to death of the pathetic Blackberry's attempts at professional functionality. My friends with iPhones run rings around me for monitoring database processes, getting email, etc. In fact, *everything* runs a lot better on the iPhone. As for Verizon carrying it, I give it 999-to-1 odds against. Something that rational, something that consumer driven, that honest, is almost impossible to imagine from a large U.S. company. It would be like all of those Wall Street crooks returning our tax money they paid for executive bonues, like credit card companies lowering their interest rates because they Fed lowered their rates, like mortgage companies actually helping consumers because they were bailed out, like Apple halving the cost on Mac's because they outsourced their manufacture to China and it costs them less than half to make them; in other words, it is something from an alternative universe, science fiction, fantasy, the stuff of dreams.
This forum most definitely seems like it has the right folks talking about something they appear to have tremendous knowledge about....I feel like this would be the right place to ask something which tons of people out there are wondering about: does unlocking an iphone for verizon make sese? Would it ever work? should I bother dishing out $500 to get a device i simply adore but cannot get because i am married to the best wireless network in US???
Please comment guys...i am all ears
@vipul, IMHO, unlocking does not make sense whatsoever. The reason is that you will constantly be at the mercy of the having an update which renders your unlocked device useless or having to wait for next unlocking update to counter (a typical cat and mouse game). Suffice to say, if you are referring to the iPhone, I suggest be patience. Apple will not have exclusivity renewal now that it has proven itself globally. BTW, the current iPhone is only HSDPA compliant and not HSPA+. What that means it that it has fast download speeds but not upload speed. HSPA+ is the next upgrade within the 3G path for UMTS which include HSPDA and HSUPA (D for downlink to the device, U for uplink from the device). So, since AT&T is pushing on HSPA+ in 2009, my guess is that Apple will release a 3G+ version that takes advantage of HSPA+. As for Verizon, as mentioned in earlier comment, their next ugrade is LTE.
Check out this article for some fun reading
A short summary of access technology roadmap for major US carriers:
AT&T: EDGE -> HSDPA -> HSPA+ -> LTE
T-Mobile: EDGE -> HSPDA -> HSPA+ -> LTE
Verizon: CDMA2000 EVDO Rev A -> LTE
Sprint: CDMA2000 EVDO Rev A -> WiMAX
Note that Comcast, Google and Time Warner may likely become WiMAX MVNOs using Clearwire.
Note that UMB has been abandoned as there are no interest from carriers
I think the iPhone will be avalible for verizon in 2009. Because apple would not be hiering people that know about CDMA and gsm. But if apple tells ous anything at the macworld convention it's going to be about the iPhone. If this happens I will be one of the people in line to get it.
Ok so say apple plans to release an iphone for the verizon service, can verizon go gsm so it can be used globally and convienently?
I just hope that if the iPhone comes to Verizon, the data contract won't be ridiculous.
....I've heard for awhile also from two different sources...One vz, and one vzw that talks have been in the works for some time. Then it was in a few blogs...then it makes perfect sense. A large 3g network, number one network once again in almost every subject (consumer reports, j.d. power) and this popular device. Apple gets to become more of a true player.
I'll be honest though, what the majority of people want, ARE FREE EASY TO USE PHONES, that people can gloat about the deal they got (I personally use an always trusty blackberry and a omina) For all this talk here well LTE is on the way, it could never work on cdma, most consumers could not give a shit. Their not the majority that are buying i-phones, they aren't even buying iphones, their buying buy one get one free post razor's, samsung jukes, nokia whatever.
Though I'm a fan of apple, and support and respect vzw as a carrier as well as carrying this....
It's just so obvious, i'm surprised it's not obvoius. Who is the biggest manufacture? How many phones have apple made?
This is real data.
not going to happen......period.
Did not happen. Only business arrangement announced was iTunes over AT&T 3G.
I think it will happen,
Would be good for apple mostly
Now that verizon has bought alltel,
VERIZON is the number one carrier for coverage and subscribers
Take that att~!!!
im only a teenager but i think the iphone is really cool. my friend has one and it would be awesome to have one of my own. i have verizon wireless right now and i love the network. verizon is a very popular network and very reliable, but whoever runs the company should open their eyes and relize that the apple iphone is a huge seller and will add to verizon's already huge success. come on guys get with the program!
I'm a loyal Verizon wireless customer (since they bought LA Cellular 12 years ago) and I've wanted an iPhone since they came out. But I refuse to subject myself to the TERRIBLE connectivity of ATT and the TERRIBLE customer service. My friends who have iPhones are constantly dropping calls. Verizon's connectivity is so good, I can't recall the last time I dropped a call (I'm in the SoCal area). Their customer services is the best I've experienced with any company. Hurry UP Apple and Verizon!
I am a loyal Verizon customer who is practically holding her breath for iPhone to come to Verizon! (Yeah, I know, if that were really true, I'd be dead by now). Seriously, though, I'm with Steve (above) and would be waiting in line for one. I will not switch to AT&T. Their service just doesn't compare to Verizon's. I would rather be iPhone-less than bound to AT&T... but, of course, how great it would be to be like Deion Sanders and have BOTH! ;)
well you can indeed unlock the iphone 3g to verizon and has been proven over youtube and shown by calling *611 and hearing welcome to verizon press 1 blah blah.. this has been done on numerous vids.. my question is what do u do from that point on.. how do u get it to work to ur current verizon service.. that is the 1 answer they left out?
any responses would be very much appreciated either here or by email.. ttyl
I'm not disagreeing that they would have to switch to GSM to make it easy on them selfs. Then again it was Apple that went to Verizon in the first place so they already knew what kind of signal they had to program the phone for. The only problem might happen between the networking of the two different signals. But then again I'm sure its a small update or switch of some small sadder wire that allows the iphone to work with any network. So I think if anything Apple with either come out with some other new kind of phone for Verizon only different from the iphone of today.. a new breed if you will.. or it will be just the same iphone that AT&T has just modified for Verizon. Every one knows that the iphone is keeping AT&T from going under. They bought out Cingular one of the worst cell phone companies I've ever did business with. Service might be different now but I know the signal isn't. Those who have the iphone I'm sure don't see a problem because Apple is a genus. But ya thats my 2cents .
I have been a loyal Verizon customer for years. I got an iPhone and at&t 12 days ago. I live in Minnesota and I drove in a snow storm today just to go to the Verizon store, and I begged them to take me back. They did, and mentioned that I was definately not the only one today to go back! At&t has horrible service, horrible customer service, and their iPhone techs are flipping thru pages of books to try to help with problems. I couldn't do it anymore. Sweet phone, but totally not worth the hours I spent on the phone with them, poor reception, terrible customer service ect. I'm IN again, and I'm staying IN!
LTE will deploy in 2010, it is currently being tested today in Minneapolis ,Columbus, Ohio
Northern New Jersey .
The iphone will be released to Verizon Wireless before the Christmas Holiday shopping period.
According to public release, Verizon Wireless will go commercial in 2 markets with LTE by YE09 with more significant footprint in 2010. AT&T and T-Mobile will evolve to HSPA+ before LTE. There will be NO LTE phones until late 2010 at best. LTE is initially catered to wireless broadband data services (like air card, etc). For VZW, voice will evolve to Voice over EVDO before Voice over LTE.
I went out and bought an iphone because I couldn't wait for vzw. I returned the iphone back to best buy after 8 days and cancelled my contract. Too many dropped calls and employees not able to get a hold of me. For one week of use ATT is charging me 79.25. What a rip. As much as I love the iphone, I will NEVER switch to AT&T!
David, you know your technology, but I think you don't fully get the business aspect of this type of decision.
Point 1: The US is one of the money making markets in the industry (China is not...yet). So 70M is greater than 300M when you consider how few of the 300M could afford a product whose entire niche is the higher end consumer (this is why several high end lines are hard to find in China)
Point 2: The air interface portions of the IPhone don't have a large cost differential between technologies and have a small overall effect on the price of a high end phone, regardless of who owns the IP rights. This is why most other comparable phones are available in several technology areas. However, there is an obvious cost in developing for each air interface technology, but I doubt this would hold them back.
Sincerely,
Industry guy
I have what is a fairly basic question I guess. I really have never seen it answered. There are those who say there's "bad blood" between Apple and Verizon, or producing a CDMA EVDO version would be costly.
But has either company actually DENIED this is happening? I don't really see why one wouldn't, if they're truly not interested in working with the other.
I mean, business is business. It isn't personal. I can't see how Apple (being the technical and financially stable powerhouse it is) wouldn't be capable of producing a dual mode or CDMA iPhone (all other phone manufacturers do). Or that either company would pass on the opportunity to add what would likely be millions of users, just because they couldn't come to an agreement the first time around. I know someone is going to mention the whole exclusivity deal, but no one has the true details of it, other than what they've read in an article.
No wonder our country is sliding into the abyss...
What does UMTS LTE stand for
UMTS = Universal Mobile Telecommunication System and LTE = Long Term Evolution
Perhaps, this document may offer additional clarification on what LTE is all about.
I have verizon now and my contract is expired. I have heard numerous rumors about the iphone coming to verizon at the the June wwdc2009. I have heard that the 3.0 software will be released at this time as well. I read that in the 3.0 software you're able to connect your iphone to a laptop via bluetooth to get internet access? I have been waiting a long time to get my hands on an iphone. The iphone is just so fricken damn cool!! The blackberry storm doesn't even hold a candle to the iphone. I will be the first person in line to buy one, if this is true. I would have bought one anyways, however everyone seems to have trouble on the At&t network, including my two buddies that just bought an iphone. Well I hope Apple wises up and gets the contract through verizon. I guess time will tell!
The iPhone will likely NOT be a Verizon connected product any time soon (see following link)
http://reviews.cnet.com/8301-12261_7-10209477-51.html?tag=mncol;title
Besides the difference in Radio hardware (they would have to make a whole different phone for verizon) Verzion always insists on having their crappy software on phones. "Get it now" and that nonsense...for example. ATT provides the connection and Apple does the rest. Apple makes the money on ringtones, apps, etc... On the other hand...VERIZON would want to to control and make all of that money. Its just not gonna happen people. Not in June...and probably not anytime soon after. If you look at the iPhone...there is NOTHING ATT about it; No ATT splash screen, no ATT ringtones, no ATT Mobile TV nonsense, NOTHING. Verizon thinks V CAST is the wave of the future and would clearly want that and their other crap on a Verizon iPhone. NOT GONNA HAPPEN
Go sign the iphone verizon petition. http://www.thepetitionsite.com/1/i-would-buy-a-verizon-iphone
I am a Verizon subscriber and I think the coverage is great. But like so many other big companies, I do not feel that they are not concerned with giving customers what they want but instead try to dictate to the customer what is available. They dropped the ball big-time when passing up the iPhone. AT&T also has exclusivity on the Blackberry Bold which is the second best phone on the market in my opinion. My VZW contract is up in June and if there is no VZW iPhone announcement by then, I will be switching to AT&T, especially with the announcement of the new iPhone OS and potentially a new iPhone.
Verizon and potential verizon customers sign this patition.
http://www.thepetitionsite.com/1/i-would-buy-a-verizon-iphone
im a verizon customer as well and wont switch to att ever. my younger brother took the bait and purchased the iphone with att. today we were at a ball game out doors and he had no signal!! lol c'mon apple, work it out with verizon and make a deal!!
At&t is has the best coverage on the globe. Lets start by saying that. At&t customer service is AMAZING. I have been an At&t customer for about 6 years any problem I've ever had has been resolved in a very timely manner and the reps have been fantastic. I recently got the iphone and i will say that I was having issues with reception but as soon as i did a software update it worked beautifully. I wouldnt trade my phone or service for anything in the world. I have had some dropped calls and no service in more rural areas of the country but i realize that At&t is an ever expanding company. Verizon has focused most of their endeavours on the US but At&t has focused their efforts globally. I would reccommend the service and the iphone to anyone who asked me about it.
Verizon has exceptional service in the US. You can not argue that. At&t is slowly but surely catching up.
Robert. Do a little fact checking. They are. Their upcoming LTE/4G network is built on the GSM standard.
verizon doesnt have to go gsm. apple will make a phone for cdma. im betting closer to 2012
i think it would be cool for verizon but verizon sucks because theyt charge for everything u do
so vzw blows
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