Submitted by Yi-Wyn Yen01.07.2009
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Betting closes on Nov 30 2009
Last year in December the National Bureau of Economic Research officially declared that the United Sates had been in recession since December 2007. As the financial crisis and economic recession further deepens, US IT investment and purchases will significantly slow down in 2009.
According to the IDC's 2008 Worldwide IT Spending Blackbook, the year-over-year IT spending growth rate in 2008 was 3.7%. In 2009, it is predicted that the US IT spending growth in 2009 will drop by more than 80% to below 0.75%.
This prediction will be judged once the IDC's Worldwide IT Spending Patterns: The Worldwide Black Book 2009 Q3 report is released to the public in late November 2009.
Image: Tracy O
Current Community Consensus 71%Prediction Statistics
| Betting Closes: | Nov 30 2009 | Current Consensus: | 71.09% | Total Bets: | 25 |
| Today's Change: | 0% | ||||
| Life Time High: | 75.03% | ||||
| Life Time Low: | 29.94% |
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Comments
Note that this is NOT a prediction that IT spending will drop by more than 80% (the title), but rather that the GROWTH in IT spending will drop by more than 80%. These are COMPLETELY different statements.
Correct. We're talking about growth rate here. Thanks for the heads up. Fixed.
I goofed and made an "against" bet based on the original heading. Oh well :(
We are really betting on a range not a figure so its a much easier. IDC doesn't mention if they adjust their revenue figures by the GDP deflator or some other price deflator--that is important for this case. People often forget that revenues are a function of prices while unit sales figures are not. For example consider the huge swings in consumer retail spending and distortion of inflation numbers by ballooning and plunging gasoline prices in 2008. In some months nearly all of the increase in retail revenues was gasoline price increases--while people were actually buying less gasoline. It is the same with tech sales. So this prediction is a no-brainer if forecasts were not adjusted to account for expected price changes. The drop will be more than that--even if unit sales remain constant (which almost certainly they won't) price cuts across the board in the kind of tough market where Intel sees a 30% drop in sales will be certainly be over the 3.05% needed to reach that figure.
Hi Daniel, good question!
IDC's forecasts usually make assumptions about falling/rising prices, but make no assumptions about inflation because of the high difficulty tracking the ever-changing IT price performance. Thus, it is almost impossible to separate volumes based on new functionality and volume based on inflation
Hi Daniel, good question!
IDC's forecasts usually make assumptions about falling/rising prices, but make no assumptions about inflation because of the high difficulty tracking the ever-changing IT price performance. Thus, it is almost impossible to separate volumes based on new functionality and volume based on inflation
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