Submitted by Ian Lamont10.29.2009
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This prediction is closed and has been judged.
The U.S. unemployment rate has been steadily rising, from below 7% at this time last year to more than 9% by May 2009 (see The Standard's prediction about when it rose above that level -- months before the original deadline). Economists and other experts have been predicting that the rate will break 10%, but it's not certain when that will happen.
Considering the fact that the September 2009 figure reached 9.8%, it could happen soon -- the next scheduled release of data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is on November 6.
On the other hand, the rise in unemployment levels has not been consistent. Over the summer, the rate actually declined slightly. Moreover, recently there have been many signs of an economic recovery, ranging from the Dow breaking 10,000 to an increase in GDP to solid earnings reports from many technology companies.
Prediction: The U.S. unemployment rate breaks the 10% level on or before the December 2009 figures are released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in early January 2010.
Image: Egan Snow/flickr
Price History
Prediction Statistics
| Betting Closes: | Jan 04 2010 | Current Consensus: | 96.92% | Total Bets: | 15 |
| Today's Change: | 18.34% | ||||
| Life Time High: | 96.92% | ||||
| Life Time Low: | 50.00% |
Comments
Maybe if companies would quit being selfish and quit laying people off the unemployment rate would stop rising and reverse trends.. how hard is that to do..
The issue I am seeing with many employers as new graduate with a masters degree is that...employers "play political card". They say want person with experience, but do not want give experience. How can a person gain experience when a employer does want give that give that experience. Although, person can have internships, or volunteer experience, but employers still say that there no experience. Employers should quit playing the "political game" and give that experience and they might help reduce the unemployment rate. Also, does employers truly fallow the equal employment policy. I don' t think so..I think truly its a scam, that employers don't really fallow. If you go to an interview do see the diverse panel who are conducting the interview... or do you see company true mean that a value diversity....Hmm I think its political ploy that employers..are playing.
The issue I am seeing with many employers as new graduate with a masters degree is that...employers "play political card". They say want person with experience, but do not want give experience. How can a person gain experience when a employer does want give that give that experience. Although, person can have internships, or volunteer experience, but employers still say that there no experience. Employers should quit playing the "political game" and give that experience and they might help reduce the unemployment rate. Also, does employers truly fallow the equal employment policy. I don' t think so..I think truly its a scam, that employers don't really fallow. If you go to an interview do see the diverse panel who are conducting the interview... or do you see company true mean that a value diversity....Hmm I think its political ploy that employers..are playing.
are you insane? selfish,, without profit they don't exist! then where are the jobs gonna come from?
What do you expect when the economy is being run by Ivy league elitists who have never even run a lemonage stand? Sure they know how to spend taxpayer money to "create" government jobs, but when it comes to helping the private sector, they don't have a clue.
Current global demographic trends would tend to suggest that the more jobs they try to create, the more people are essentially going to crawl out of the baggage area of an airplane, or out of a cargo container, or over the border fence, or otherwise effect entry to the United States, by one means or another, meaning that if the government does all these wonderful things to keep boosting the economy and promising growth, growth, growth and so forth, we could end up at 400 million people in the US in 10 years, globally the headcount just went over 6.8 billion, that's 100 million a year increase starting in 2001 until now.
In english, they can create jobs until the cows come home, but eventually, all such efforts will be overcome by sheer force of numbers. It's decider-time, with all of this, I think if people kind of pulled their socks up, and actually applied for a minimum-wage job, or two, they'd find that the job market actually isn't all THAT bad, even if it doesn't provide them with all the employment perks they initially believed themselves to be entitled to.
Times are tough all over, there's worse things in life than being unemployed for a while, use it as a time to learn something, get creative, try and get your act together, build that resume, and actually start job-shopping like you meant to get hired, because that's honestly part of the problem, here, people are holding out for a better offer, when maybe there really isn't one coming their way. At least we're not Turkmenistan, with 50% unemployment...
It's very hard to do. The problem here is not companies being selfish or the unwillingness of people to take lower end jobs. The problem is that the very banks and mega corporations the government has tried to "bail out" have severely and irresponsibly over extended themselves. The housing market had been inflated for years and the bubble burst putting our entire financial system in a dyer situation, that combined with substantial increase in fuel costs left consumers with less disposable income. With personal investments gone or at risk and less money in pocket, consumers have drastically changed their spending habits. Americans were forced and continue to spend less or have over extended themselves with credit, and that has a trickle down effect on everything. All business is connected. The less consumers consume the less businesses produce. The less businesses have to produce, the fewer employees they need. The more people that loose their jobs, the less they spend. It really is a very vicious cycle and the end is unfortunately no where in sight. In order to stimulate the economy, consumers need to be able to have confidence in their investments and confidently spend the money they do have. We need to spend money in our local economies. The government needs to let big business fail. They are only prolonging the inevitable and loosing billions in the process. The government needs to invest in small business, support and stimulate small business growth. This country was built on the backs of small business, and it's the small agile business that will be key in rebuilding it.
Latest numbers shows 9.8%. Not enough to meet judgment criteria. Also, news that economic recovery is in full swing are coming in. Most economic indicators are now showing growth and with the holiday season hiring, it is becoming more doubtful that the 10% will be broken by end of 2009. At the current consensus %, the Return vs Risk makes it rather palatable.
Official numbers from US Bureau of Labor Statistics is 10.2%!!!! Done deal!
Judged.
Ian Lamont
Managing Editor
The Industry Standard
twitter.com/the_standard
twitter.com/ilamont
Is it time yet to start a new prediction for 15% by the end of 2010?
Jon Harris
Webmaster: Entrepreneur Support
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