Submitted by Yi-Wyn Yen01.07.2009
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This prediction is closed and is in the process of being judged.
The growth of online advertising dramatically slowed in 2008 with the start of the economic recession. After several years of healthy growth, U.S. spending for online advertising dropped by less than half, from 25% in 2007 to 12% in 2008.
Analysts forecast Internet ad spend will rise only 10% in 2009. eMarketer estimates that total U.S. online spend for '08 was $23.6 billion and this year will reach $25.7 billion. IDC's latest Internet Advertising Quarterly report also suggests that the growth has faltered. In Q3 2008 report says that "total U.S. advertising spending increased by 9.4% to $6.67 billion from $6.09 billion in the same quarter a year ago."
Others claim that the 10% prediction will get slashed again with expectations of a deepening recession.
Prediction: Will online ad spend in the U.S. Internet advertising continue to grow by more than 10% in 2009? This prediction will be judged once the IDC's U.S. Internet Advertising Quarterly Wrap-up 3Q 2009 report is released to the public in December 2009.
Current Community Consensus 15%
Prediction Statistics
| Betting Closes: | Dec 15 2009 | Current Consensus: | 14.80% | Total Bets: | 27 |
| Today's Change: | 0% | ||||
| Life Time High: | 61.06% | ||||
| Life Time Low: | 14.80% |
Price History
Comments
@Yi-Wyn, suggest that the prediction heading be modified to be
"U.S. online advertising grows by over 10% in 2009?" to be consistent with prediction body verbiage.
Incidentally, can you look into the
Ad spending will shift from impression to performance-based marketing in 2008 prediction that is being judged. According IAB 2008 Q3 report, it already shows performance-based marketing with more market share than impression-based. IMO, it has sufficient data to support rendering of judgment.
I originally had it that way but shortened it to "by" in the header to make it less wordy. The gist of it is still the same, in my opinion. But I switched back per your suggestion.
In regards to other prediction, I sense that the trend will be the same, but I believe IAB will come out with their annual report within a month, which is why I wanted to wait before closing that out. Will take a look.
Though the economy has slashed big profits of the overall advertising industry - including both traditional and new media advertising, the relative low cost of online advertising (plus its 'measurable' features such as clicks) could steer more companies to spend more on internet ads and less on traditional media.
So I bet yes on this prediction. :-)
Online advertising grows with more than 10% in US? I guess a lot of people put their hopes in advertising to overcome the financial crisis consequences. That's tells a lot about people's perceptions on marketing in general.
Regg, Clickbooth agent
Q4 2008 - $6.1B
Q1 2009 - $5.48B
Q2 2009 - $5.43B
Q3 2009 - $5.50B
Q4 2009 - TBD
To meet judgment criteria, Q4 2009 will need to be over $9.29B or 52% above Q408. This is a quarantee negative judgment as it is pretty much impossible for Q4 to report such numbers.
Reference links:
http://www.emarketer.com/Article.aspx?R=1007128
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gqQuauRdM5lFiB8oNc4ymo...
Seems likely -- but one difference between Q4 2008 and Q4 2009 is retailers/vendors targeting the consumer market need a blowout holiday period, and marketing is one way to achieve that. That $6.1B figure from last year may indeed show a sharp rise this quarter.
Ian Lamont
Managing Editor
The Industry Standard
twitter.com/the_standard
twitter.com/ilamont
Each year Q4, retailers/vendors targets for blowout sales as it represents the most significant % of the annual sales. With real unemployment rates hovering around 20%, expenditures for sales/marketing have been severely curtailed. That said, many retailers/vendors have earmarked costs associated with sales/marketing for Q4 this year as many are at the make-or-break point. Still, a 50%+ is unheard of.
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