Submitted by Yi-Wyn Yen03.31.2009
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This prediction is closed and has been judged.
At the start of the year, analysts estimate the U.S. unemployment rate will hit 10% by the end of 2009. The monthly unemployment has steadily risen since September 2008, when investment bank Lehman Bros. imploded.
Here are the monthly figures from the Labor Department:
Sept. 2008 6.2%
Oct. 2008 6.6%
Nov. 2008 6.8%
Dec. 2008 7.2%
Jan. 2009 7.6%
Feb. 2009 8.1%
Prediction: The monthly unemployment rate will rise to 9.0% by October 2, 2009. This prediction will be judged based on the Labor Department's monthly report. The last monthly data that can be used for judgment is September, and the Labor Dept. is scheduled to report numbers on Oct. 2.
Price History
Prediction Statistics
| Betting Closes: | Oct 01 2009 | Current Consensus: | 96.44% | Total Bets: | 17 |
| Today's Change: | 4.76% | ||||
| Life Time High: | 96.44% | ||||
| Life Time Low: | 50.00% |
Comments
Forecast for March '09 is 8.5%. The forecast is typically accurate +/- 0.1%.
Official numbers for March 2009 is 8.5%
@Yi-Wen Yen, what if the unemployment rate rises above 9% prior to Oct 2, 2009, would the bet be judged early as favorable?
@Marc, the judgment criteria says "...will rise to 9.0% by October 2, 2009". That means, early judgment is indeed possible.
The interesting thing to me is some of the largest states in the nation have already crossed the 10% level, including California. However, some smaller population states still have relatively low unemployment. I strongly recommend people check out the following interactive map to see how the jobs picture is playing out in individual counties over time:
Slate: When Did Your County's Jobs Disappear?
Ian Lamont
Managing Editor
The Industry Standard
twitter.com/ilamont
Bureau of Labor reported 8.9% for April.
9.2% is the consensus number expected to be reported on June 5. If so, favorable judgment criteria would be met.
Judged: 9.4%, according to the NYT, but the rate of loss is slowing:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/06/business/economy/06jobs.html?hp
Ian Lamont
Managing Editor
The Industry Standard
twitter.com/the_standard
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