Submitted by David Kuan01.07.2009
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This prediction is closed and has been judged.
The average gasoline price at the pump has plummeted as the U.S. recession rapidly worsens. As of January 5, 2009, the average cost of a gallon of regular gasoline was $1.42 less than a year ago.
As the U.S. recession deepens and spreads globally, international demand could weaken further. As consumer spending power drops, crude oil prices could fall even further, which could translate to even lower gasoline prices at the pump. This assumes a lack of any major refinery disruptions due to wars, natural disasters, terrorism, pipelines being turned off (as seen in the dispute between Russia and Ukraine over natural gas prices), and so on.
Some analysts believe that $20/barrel crude oil is entirely possible which would push gasoline prices down to levels not seen in several years, if not decades. With crude oil prices accounting for about 59% of the gasoline price, gasoline prices may likely drop below $1.25/gallon if crude oil drops to about $30/barrel.
Using an interesting application known as the Gas Calculator, a $30 barrel of crude makes approximately $1/gallon. "It takes 3-6 months for crude oil to make its way through the refining process and make it into gasoline that you buy at the pump. Due to this delay, you may not see an immediate jump in pump prices. "
Prediction: Will the U.S. average cost of a gallon of regular gasoline decline below $1.25/gallon at any time between now and May 31, 2009? Judgment will be made based on figures from Energy Information Adminstration. (Prediction edited by The Industry Standard. Image: The Industry Standard)
Let the community decide. Place your bets!
Price History
Prediction Statistics
| Betting Closes: | May 29 2009 | Current Consensus: | 3.23% | Total Bets: | 23 |
| Today's Change: | 0% | ||||
| Life Time High: | 48.75% | ||||
| Life Time Low: | 3.23% |
Comments
Some DEEP pockets have spoken...
Bloomberg, Jan. 7: "Oil futures tumbled 12 percent, the most in more than seven years, after a U.S. government report showed bigger-than-expected increases in supplies of crude oil, gasoline and distillate fuel as consumption dropped." This will impact the price at the pump.
If the demand/supply goes unchecked, it probably seem likely that price at the pump will continue to feel the deflation effect. OPEC will not stand idle when prices free fall.
Yes it will. But that means that stocks are going to be decimated and no one will even notice low gas prices because they will be more concerned about losing another 30% for the year in equity!!
It just seems to me that the price of crude and gasoline defies the rules of supply and demand. Other than the suppliers control the supplies and they will demand what price you will pay. It's funny to me that you can watch crude oil prices drop and look at your local gas station and see the gasoline prices stay the same for days and days as the price of crude continues to drop, but, if the price of crude goes up the price at the pump goes up within 2 days. It defies logic and smacks of greed. Then you have the "speculators" and "commodities experts" that try insight panic to drive the price up. How many tropical storms that fizzled out this year caused crude to spike up? I recall a couple of years ago the price of crude and gas went up because 2 Isreali soldiers were kidnapped. Give me a break!!! It's all a bunch of greed, collusion and manipulation and unfortunatly the consumer pays (and now our economy). Frankly, it's kind of nice to hear oil companies not proclaiming yet another quarter of "record profits". I'm sure their profit margins are still intact though.
Crude oil hording rampant to drive up prices.
Amen Joe!! I agree with you 100%. I follow the crude oil prices on a daily basis and it makes no sence to me that a couple of months ago the price of crude oil was $36 a barrell and the price at the pump stayed the same and when our Government bought 12 million barrells as a safety net for when we have a disaster the price at the pump wouldn't be impacted. (I don't believe that one bit) Well that buying spree shot the price of crude oil up to $48 and the price at the pump the very next day went up .10 cents and and still continues to rise even though the price of oil has been steady at $41 to $42 a barrell for weeks now. It's all greed and dishonesty and frankly plain wrong I say if we elect people into office then we should be able to fire them as well! There isn't a soul who reads this that if they lied and were that lousy at thier job that they would be able to hang onto it for long!!
Exactly -- when the oil prices go down, there is always a significant delay at the pump, and it alwasy in a couple of cents each time. But whenever there is any thing even remotely related to potential increase in oil price (let alone the actural increase), you will see a prompt and many times huge jump at nearly every station, sometimes within hours and in 10 to 20 cents each time rather than 1 to 2 cents when they go the other direction. I couldn't find good explanations other than greed. But it's always to good time to turn on your radio and find out what the news is. Like Joe said, someone may have just been kidnapped. Well, when they realize whatever just happened had no real impact on oil prices and couldn't continue to keep the price high, they only lower the price about 2 cents each time after several days, apprarently very reluctant to let you pump the gas at its normal/reasonable price -- who doesn't want to pocket a bit more money? I wish the same rules can be followed when the oil prices increase or decrease, but sadly, that may never happen in reality.
Judged, based on the chart on the bottom of the EIA page:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/wrgp/mogas_ho...
The price did not drop below $1.60 before May 30, and is actually currently on an upward swing.
Ian Lamont
Managing Editor
The Industry Standard
twitter.com/the_standard
LOL. Your never ever going to see gas below $2.00 from now on. In fact get ready for the first part of July/August 2009, it will be hitting very close to $5.00 a gallon if not more. By 2010 it will be well above $5.00 a gallon. Look around and you'll going to see for yourself. Ellectric cars? What a joke. Electric also has to be paid for. Get a life and think as well as listen and look at the price of goods your buying. Pay attention and you can see there is going to be hard times ahead for all!
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