Submitted by Yi-Wyn Yen02.13.2009
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This prediction is closed and has been judged.
Electric car maker Tesla Motors announced that it will receive a $450 million loan from the Department of Energy to build a factory for its Model S, a four-door electric sedan, and also to support its battery supply business. Tesla CEO Elon Musk assured customers in a monthly newsletter that the money from the DOE would come in "four to five months."
That's great news, except the DOE has a reputation for being slow-moving and full of bureacratic delays. Obama's new Energy Secretary Steven Chu will get roughly $35 billion to $40 billion under the stimulus bill to loan to green tech companies. Chu said he wants checks sent to these companies in 4 weeks. But some DOE skeptics don't expect to see any loans given to clean tech businesses for another 12 months.
Tesla is supposedly one of a handful that is on the fast track to receive its loans this year.
Prediction: Tesla Motors will get its loan from the Department of Energy by July 1, 2009.
Image: Tesla Motors
Price History
Prediction Statistics
| Betting Closes: | Jun 30 2009 | Current Consensus: | 96.44% | Total Bets: | 17 |
| Today's Change: | 84.52% | ||||
| Life Time High: | 96.44% | ||||
| Life Time Low: | 11.92% |
Comments
There could be no better investment in America than to invest in America becoming energy independent! We need to utilize everything in out power to reduce our dependence on foreign oil including using our own natural resources. Create cheap clean energy, new badly needed green jobs, and reduce our dependence on foreign oil. The high cost of fuel this past year seriously damaged our economy and society. The cost of fuel effects every facet of consumer goods from production to shipping costs. After a brief reprieve gas is inching back up. OPEC will continue to cut production until they achieve their desired 80-100. per barrel. If all gasoline cars, trucks, and SUV's instead had plug-in electric drive trains, the amount of electricity needed to replace gasoline is about equal to the estimated wind energy potential of the state of North Dakota. There is a really good new book out by Jeff Wilson called The Manhattan Project of 2009 Energy Independence Now.
Tesla just raised additional $40M including GE who became second largest investor in Tesla Motor (according to leaked interview info) while awaiting the federal loan.
Big news here:
http://www.energy.gov/news2009/7486.htm
However, I am holding off on judgment until I determine when the loan will come through. This is an announcement, but it's not clear if it will come through before June 30.
Ian Lamont
Managing Editor
The Industry Standard
twitter.com/the_standard
Someone just placed a big bet that this is going to happen -- it shot from 12% community consensus to 96%.
Just a reminder: I am making judgment based on the language in the prediction -- an announcement of the loan coming through at some undertermined point in the future will not suffice.
Ian Lamont
Managing Editor
The Industry Standard
twitter.com/the_standard
@Ian, IT ALREADY HAPPENED!
The announced approval is the indication by which Tesla can start using the loan instrument to draw the necessary funds from the government. It behaves very much like a Home Equity Loan where once the loan instrument is set up, the borrower can draw funds at his/her discretion. To that point, Tesla has indeed secured the loans from DOE. When it decides to draw the funds to fund its production plant build out is at Tesla's own discretion and should not be the crtieria by which this prediction is judged. Furthermore, any news on when the funds are drawn may not be as forthcoming.
In short, this prediction should be favorably judged. There is also precedence on this. All the bail-out predictions were judged at the announcement of approval and not when actual $ gets funneled. There should not be a different standard applied to this prediction.
Disclosure: I am responsible for most (if not all) of the % change on this prediction (reverting my big against bet to a big favorable bet).
Judged. Tesla did indeed lock down the loan, according to several sources.
Ian Lamont
Managing Editor
The Industry Standard
twitter.com/the_standard
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