Submitted by The Standard05.01.2008
Thunderdome
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News149027Salesforce's
This prediction is closed and has been judged.
Judgment:
This was an interesting one. From a lifetime low of 19.78% consensus to a high of 62.25%, the community never fully agreed on this event at by the time bets closed. In the end, it was an even split. However, the event did occur, thus paid out at S$100. -- The Industry Standard
Original Prediction:
According to an anonymous source quoted by Fortune, "AT&T is preparing to subsidize $200 of the cost of a new iPhone, bringing the price down to $199 for customers who sign two-year contracts, the source says."
Obviously, this subsidy strategy would be a shot heard 'round the mobile world, and a serious threat to Verizon, Sprint and T-Mobile's market share over the summer.
This is a prediction that when the new iPhone is available in the U.S. market there will be a model available for $199 after subsidies by AT&T. Also, this model has to be considered a "new" iPhone, not the "original" iPhone.
Bets will be open until June 4 (the rumored release date) unless the phone is released earlier.
Note: Judgment will be made only when the new iPhone price is made available to the public by an offical statement by AT&T and/or Apple.
Price History
Prediction Statistics
| Betting Closes: | Jun 04 2008 | Current Consensus: | 48.75% | Total Bets: | 66 |
| Today's Change: | 0% | ||||
| Life Time High: | 62.25% | ||||
| Life Time Low: | 19.78% |
Comments
FOR sure
Probably too early for that kind of drastic pricing move....but we all love that idea!
Go apple!
http://techland.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2008/05/23/att-shows-thinking-on-n...
Sorry, dup.
I was wondering if a mail-in rebate of $200 counts as a full $200 subsidy..
Analyst rejects talk of near-term iPhone subsidies (posted today at RCR News)
http://rcrnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080602/SUB/789783694/108...
this is a high-demand premium-price product... initial discounting is not necessary and is unlikely. My guesses:
(1) Initial pricing of 3G iPhone will be as planned - no major discounts
(2) Approx 90-120 days after launch, they rollout first "upgrade" (larger storage/etc) - base 3G iPhone is discounted to $199. Likely timing is US Fall back-to-school schedule.
Would you consider extending this deadline to WWDC, the most likely time when Apple would make such a price change?
Having the deadline today is fine.
Judgment will occur after the price is announced, which may be next week (when, presumably, the phone is announced), or later in the month (when, presumably, it ships), or next year (if we're all wrong about the imminent arrival of the 3G iPhone). The last option wouldn't be much fun as lots of money would sit idle for an indefinite amount of time, but it's also unlikely.
Mmmm, the iPhone Nano rumors add another element to this. We might get the 3G iPhone at $399, AND a new 2.5G iPhone Nano at $199. Would fit the definition for success here.
I'm still betting that we see the 3G iPhone @ $199. Between the rumors coming out of Spain (Telefonica/Movistar at €100) and the UK (O2 at £100), SOMETHING should be priced in that neighborhood in the US. If not then AT&T should have "leaked" counter-rumors over the past couple of months to manage expectations.
Monday will be fun one way or the other, with all these related predictions.
Bam! Check. Done deal. Will judge soon. Congrats, Apple!
How will this be judged? Looking at http://www.apple.com/iphone/ the condition to get a $199 iPhone 3G requires the following (reading the footnote)::
1) Purchase of new iPhone 3G
2) Subscribe to a 2yr AT&T rate plan
AND
3) Prior purchase of 1st generation 8GB iPhone
It doesn't require a prior purchase. It's COMPARING to a prior purchase.
Here's AT&T's press release: http://www.att.com/gen/press-room?pid=4800&cdvn=news&newsarticleid=25791 No mention of any other purchase requriement.
Jobs was VERY clear in his WWDC presentation that the MAXIMUM price for the 8GB 3G iPhone would be $199.
This prediction should be judged as a success. Let's close it up.
I stand corrected. Re-read the footnote. The speed comparison was made between the new iPhone 3G 8GB with the first generation iPhone 8GB.
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