Submitted by Ozgur Uzuner05.05.2008
After dramatically withdrawing its Yahoo bid after three long months of high-stakes poker, Microsoft (MS) will try to reach in a new direction with another large Internet company, such as AOL, Facebook, or MySpace, etc., to help drive an immediate boost in its online market share.
This is a prediction that some time between now and the next 30 days, MS will make some sort of public announcement that it will attempt to take over/buy/acquire/invest heavily in a major Internet property other than Yahoo. In other words, their "Plan B" shall be revealed now that the Yahoo deal appears to have finally closed, at least for now.
In order for this to be judged favorably, a minimum of at least $1billion must be put forward by Microsoft towards some other large Internet-based company. Acceptance of the offer is not important, only the revelation of a new direction made publicly by MS. Bets will close on June 2 and judgment will be made on June 9, 2008, unless something is announced earlier in the mainstream media.
Any new announcements regarding Yahoo will not be judged towards this prediction. In fact, if Microsoft were to announce a new deal with Yahoo and nothing more within the given timeframe, this prediction will pay at S$0.
Suggested Odds50.00%
Prediction Close Date:06.02.2008 (EST)
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Comments
I made a few minor word edit here, but you may want to consider using a different for for "tie-up" like "announces acquisition plans" or something of the sort. The wording will need to be tightened up a little bit so as to not create any ambiguity.
Hey thanks for editing, I think it looks better now.
I'd also suggest putting a floor on minimum deal size. If they pick up a minor stake in some start up for $25million, is that sufficient?
I'm talking about major companies such as AOL, Facebook, Myspace..I mentioned that in the description.. Anyways, Microsoft won't bother acquiring a company worth $20-30 million...
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