Submitted by Denis Lafont-Tr...09.01.2008
Google has launched a brand new open source browser named Chrome.
The first day after the launch, Google is said to have 1% market share (source: http://marketshare.hitslink.com/ ).
Day 2: Chrome is given 3% (Source: http://getclicky.com/global-marketshare-statistics ) Will Google Chrome continue to that pace ? Will Chrome users switch back to Firefox or IE?
Prediction: Google Chrome will have 5% market share by the end of 2008. Bets will close on December 31, 2008 while judgment will occur no later than when December 2008 metric is reported. Judgment will be made based on http://marketshare.hitslink.com/ reporting for Google Chrome. The number used will be the last % available for the month.
Let the community decide. Place your bets!
Suggested Odds50.00%
Prediction Close Date:12.22.2008 (EST)
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Comments
Is there a reason to close the bet so early when the metric would not be released until late February? Also, do we need to account for the metric skewed by the initial surge of Chrome downloads and usage (i.e. by curious IE and Firefox folks)? Perhaps, discount month of September 2008 from consideration? Suggestions?
BTW, why set judgement date to be static? Also, title says end of 2008, then verbiage states data for January with judgement date of February. Sounds confusing. And what if Chrome really takes off and breaks the 5% earlier?
Suggest verbiage change from:
Bets will close on December 22, 2008, while judgment will occur on February 29, 2009 based on http://marketshare.hitslink.com/ data for January.
To:
Bets will close on December 31, 2008 while judgment will occur no later than when December 2008 metric is reported. Should usage metric breaks 5%.earlier, favorable judgement can be made. Judgement will be made based on http://marketshare.hitslink.com/ reporting for Google Chrome.
You're right, edited.
The only thing I removed from your proposal is the "hould usage metric breaks 5%.earlier, favorable judgement can be made." Reason: the first months will be quite shaky, and Chrome could break the barrier and go down the same month. One example is http://marketshare.hitslink.com/report.aspx?sample=21&qprid=43&qpcustom=... where Chrome broke the 1,45 % then decrease.
I agree that an occassional spike should not count towards the judgement. Verbiage still reads a little confusing. I believe your intention is if any of the monthly metric shows Chrome breaks 10% market share, a favorable judgement can be made. Using monthly metric removes metric fluctuations from consideration.
If that is true, I suggest addtional verbiage change:
A favorable judgment will be made based on earliest monthly browser market share metric reported by http://marketshare.hitslink.com/ reaches 10% or above for Google Chrome.
Sorry for the misunderstanding. My intention is to have the *final* number of the month be 10%+. The rational behind is that I am not sure we can have daily or hourly figures like the one we have now. So the judgment will be based on the final report of hitslink.com
Denis
@Denis, perhaps use the term "final number of the month" to be more explicit and clear. Also, you have bumped it up to 10% from 5%. Is there a reasoning behind this? With only about 3 months to go, that might be a tall order for a beta version browser (with no Mac and Linux versions released). 5% is much more playable (for YE08 timeframe), IMHO.
@David
Wording: ok, edited.
10% against 5%: Well, in 3 days Chrome seems to be at 2,5% market share (see http://technos.ouvaton.org/ ). I am afraid that 5% is a too near y target. What other readers are thinking?
@Denis, GetClicky metric is not measured the same way as Hitslink (websites sample differs). Also, Techcrunch did their own metric and it broke 6%. I attribute all this surge to the new launch but it will subside after the first few initial weeks (see Comment #1). The final monthly metric will average out some of those surge spikes.
OK then , we stay with this wording and the 10%?
Denis
Wording looks ok now. I am ok with 5% or 10%. Only difference is how I would bet if this becomes a playable bet. I expect more back/forth swings on 5% than at 10%. A back and forth swings (like what we see for Chrome Mac) makes the betting more interesting, IMO. Up to you on which threshold to use. I just voted Yes.
Ok, let's go for 5%
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