Submitted by Allan Gunneson03.20.2008
With the impending switch to digital television, the broadcast television stations, news media and government have done a lousy job in getting the word out to Ma and Pa Consumer about the pending switch in January 2009.
When grandma finally finds out in December 2008 that the following month her beloved Phillips 13" TV can no longer receive Wheel of Fortune and Oprah from her "Radio Shack SuperColorMaster 2000" antenna, there will be hell to pay.
This prediction is simple. Some member of the US Congress will introduce legislation to put a hold on the scheduled switch of analog television to digital and that legislation will pass on or before 12-31-2008.
Editor's Note: This prediction's rules has been updated slightly on March 31 to better reflect the wishes of the community.
Suggested Odds50.00%
Prediction Close Date:12.31.2008 (EST)
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Comments
I'd prefer a market for there actually BEING a delay. Mere introduction of legislation? That's a bit weak.
Especially if it includes putting forward an amendment to some completely unrelated piece of legislation that gets immediately rejected as irrelevant, but somehow can be spun as scoring points for some Representative with some special interest supporter.
Allan, what do you think? Should we make this more powerful and say that there will indeed be a delay (not just legislation proposing such)? I tend to agree with Bradley.
Gents, your comments are well reasoned. I am willing to change the prediction that congress will implement a delay through legislation.
It's pretty hard to vote no to this prediction as it does not propose that the legislative bill will succeed, just that someone in Congress will introduce a piece of legislation. That seems much too probable. Had the prediction been focused on the success or failure of such legislation, I would have to vote in favor of failure.
Allan, I updated your Suggestion's rules. This sounds pretty good to me now.
Thanks Eric. Great site!
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