Submitted by Kristan Rivers05.15.2008
Carl Icahn has put forward a slate of alternate director candidates for Yahoo's board in his proxy fight against Yahoo.
"Facing a battle for its board, Yahoo on Thursday pushed back its annual meeting until the end of July and announced the resignation of a board member.
The annual meeting, during which the entire board is up for re-election, had been scheduled for July 3. Yahoo did not yet set a particular date for the annual meeting but said that it will be around the end of July."
This is a prediction that Carl Icahn's attempt to replace Yahoo's current board with those more friendly to a Microsoft merger will ultimately succeed.
In order to judge this prediction favorably, at least five of Mr. Icahn's proposed or preferred candidates must be voted in as members of Yahoo's board at the late-July shareholders meeting. Bets will close on July 23, 2008, and the prediction will be judged after the shareholder meeting has occurred, unless the currently unscheduled meeting happens earleir than the closing date.
(Ed. note: Some minor word edits have been made by The Standard to clarify the prediction's rules.)
Suggested Odds50.00%
Prediction Close Date:07.23.2008 (EST)
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Comments
With the news breaking over the weekend that MS/YHOO are looking for a different type of relationship in their sordid affair, I'm not too sure how far this will go anymore. That's just me.
Perhaps sit on this until mid-late June and then if it's still an open issue run it as a short-term prop for the last week or two prior to the annual meeting and vote?
Still give Kristan the credit, of course.
That said, the suggestion remains in effect until June 15th without any special action. That's nearly to the point in time that I describe. So just delay deciding until it's clear whether or not this will remain a fun/worthwhile/interesting prediction.
Both Eric's and Bradley's points are valid. Although Microsoft are for the time-being pursuing another avenue with Microsoft, there's been no indication of a back-down by Mr. Icahn. The prediction isn't necessarily that a MS-Yahoo merger would be forced by the new board (although that was my initial expectation) - rather the prediction focused on whether a significant portion (a majority) of Yahoo's board would be replaced by candidates put forward by Mr. Icahn. There's still been no clear indication either way regarding Mr. Icahn's preference for a smaller deal between Yahoo and MS; a board put in place by Mr. Icahn could still veto the currently speculated deal, in preference for a different tie-up (with Google, for instance).
Check this out for a bit more thoughts on the current state of affairs:
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid={06498597-2F17-4844-9FDC-6F5864461402}
Hi Kristan,
Not sure if you saw this, but Icahn has another ally in his fight now. Definitely getting complex.
I can't wait for that shareholder meeting in July. It ought to be pretty heated to say the least.
http://www.thestandard.com/news/2008/05/22/update-yahoo-postpones-board-...
Mmmm, the meeting has been pushed back to late July...
We can easily fix this. We should change this Suggesition's close date to something like July 25th, then judge the prediction once the meeting has occurred.
So, does the resignation of one of the board members today count as one of the six? ;)
I just changed the prediction closing date to July 22 - arbitrarily chosen as I consider the 22nd to be sometime before Yahoo's unhelpful "around the end of July" date for the board meeting.
With the reduction in board members to 9 (instead of 10), I suppose the prediction could also be changed to reduce the number of candidates to "at least five" - instead of six. Will change that.
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