Submitted by Ian Lamont06.19.2009
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This prediction is closed and has been judged.
In mid-January, Apple co-founder and CEO Steve Jobs sent an email to staff in which he said he was taking a leave of absense to "take myself out of the limelight and focus on my health." In the message, he said that his leave would last until the end of June.
Now the end of June is approaching. While Jobs has reportedly been seen on the Apple campus, he did not make a hoped-for appearance at the World Wide Developers Conference at the beginning of the month. Apple has not commented on his current health or plans, beyond saying that he remains deeply involved in decision making.
A related prediction that Jobs will step down as Apple CEO by the end of 2009 now has a community consensus of just 33%.
Prediction: Steve Jobs publicly returns to a regular working schedule at Apple headquarters on or before June 30, 2009. There must be an official confirmation from Apple, in the form of a press release, or comment/statement by an Apple official described in a news report. A delay or ambiguous message from Apple about his working status will render a negative judgment.
Image: Steve Jobs at Macworld 2007 (acaben/flickr, creative commons license)
Related: Steve Jobs' greatest Macworld video hits, 1998-2008
Price History
Prediction Statistics
| Betting Closes: | Jun 29 2009 | Current Consensus: | 95.26% | Total Bets: | 24 |
| Today's Change: | 15.85% | ||||
| Life Time High: | 95.26% | ||||
| Life Time Low: | 40.13% |
Comments
Very soon after posting this prediction, some information came out about Steve Jobs' health situation:
http://www.thestandard.com/news/2009/06/20/report-steve-jobs-had-liver-t...
He's reportedly on track to return by the end of the month. We'll see how it plays out.
Ian Lamont
Managing Editor
The Industry Standard
twitter.com/the_standard
He needs to recovery. Give him 3 months
One observer thinks the WSJ story and angle is "media manipulation" on the part of Apple, and he doubts Jobs will return by the end of June:
If Wilcox (who used to write a Microsoft-focused blog for one of the big tech publishers) is right, the question I have is whether Jobs' role entails a regular work schedule at Apple HQ.
What do participants in this prediction think?
Ian Lamont
Managing Editor
The Industry Standard
twitter.com/the_standard
Well, it looks like he's returned to work. He's commenting publicly, as Apple CEO, in today's press release:
http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2009/06/22iphone.html
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2009/06/22/one_million_new_iphones/
that looks pretty official to me
Hello Garrick. Did he make these statements at a press conference? I am looking for confirmation of a "regular working schedule at Apple headquarters."
Thanks,
Ian Lamont
Managing Editor
The Industry Standard
twitter.com/the_standard
Job's most recent statement is not sufficient to constitute him returning to work. Furthermore, it is more likely that Jobs returns by end of the month, he will not be working at full capacity (regular working schedule) but instead part time basis.
I agree that the statement in the press release is not sufficient. I doubt he even said or wrote it -- typically the marketing, communications, or PR department will write a release and then have a senior executive approve it.
However, one thing that I want to make clear is that "regular working schedule" does not have to be stated by Apple or Jobs as "full time" at Apple HQ. I deliberately avoided using "full time" in the prediction language because it is difficult to determine -- he may be traveling, going to meetings, or visiting other companies with which he is associated, such as Disney/Pixar. But he needs to be coming to the Apple office on a regular (as opposed to occasional or infrequent) basis.
Ian Lamont
Managing Editor
The Industry Standard
More information: He's supposedly been spotted on campus, according to second or third-hand sources:
http://www.thestandard.com/news/2009/06/22/confirmed-steve-jobs-back-job
Ian Lamont
Managing Editor
The Industry Standard
twitter.com/the_standard
More confirmation:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/31494763
Thanks for the link, Garrick. But there's one sentence in that CNBC story that's relevant to us:
"Now, the broader question is whether today is a one-hit-wonder, whether he won't be here tomorrow ..."
More information is needed -- preferably an official statement from Apple or Jobs himself that he came to work a second day and/or is working at Apple HQ on a regular basis.
Failing that, I would accept an account in a news outlet based on information from someone who has seen him back at work for a second day before the close of the prediction.
Ian Lamont
Managing Editor
The Industry Standard
twitter.com/the_standard
Weird aside: Fake Steve Jobs has apparently returned:
http://fakesteve.blogspot.com/2009/06/new-york-times-is-friggin-pathetic...
Ian Lamont
Managing Editor
The Industry Standard
twitter.com/the_standard
I doubt Fake Steve Jobs will be appearing on CNBC anytime soon though (a different playable prediction).
Everyone:: I have put a call into Apple for a confirmation of whether or not he is working regularly, but haven't gotten any reply. If I don't get a reply by June 30, or there is no other source that confirms he is still coming into work, then I will follow the original prediction language which says:
Ian Lamont
Managing Editor
The Industry Standard
twitter.com/the_standard
@Ian, it is now official. See http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aSy0WezEGvvY where Apple's spokeperson confirmed it.
“Steve is back to work,” said Steve Dowling, a spokesman at the Cupertino, California-based company. Jobs is at Apple a few days a week and working at home the remaining days, he said. “We are very glad to have him back.”
Agreed, and judged.
Ian Lamont
Managing Editor
The Industry Standard
twitter.com/the_standard
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