Submitted by Bradley Baker05.26.2008
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This prediction is closed and has been judged.
Sony Corp. has delayed for the second time the release of its much-anticipated answer to Xbox Live Achievements - the virtual-community service for the PlayStation 3 known as Home.
As reported in The Wall Street Journal, "The 3-D service called Home, which originally was expected to be sold starting last year, now is expected to be available in the fall, the company said."
This is a prediction that Home will be released for public sale by December 2008. A short additional delay from "fall" to as late as November 30th is not grounds for this prediction's failure. Any delay to December 1st or beyond would be.
This prediction will close at the earliest of the public release of Home, November 30th, or a confirmed public announcement from Sony of a release date after November 30th. A confirmed public announcement of a cancellation of the project would also result in an immediate negative outcome for this prediction.
It is unclear as to whether the initial release will be a beta or a final release, but that is outside the scope of this prediction.
Price History
Prediction Statistics
| Betting Closes: | Nov 30 2008 | Current Consensus: | 9.98% | Total Bets: | 25 |
| Today's Change: | 0% | ||||
| Life Time High: | 78.58% | ||||
| Life Time Low: | 9.98% |
Comments
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Beta testing begins this month:
http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D928QATG0.htm
http://www.pcworld.com/businesscenter/article/149185/sony_begins_accepti...
This is a closed beta test and would not (IMO) meet the criteria for this prediction (publicly-available)*. However it's anticipated that there will be an open beta and/or final version later in the fall, either of which would.
* That said, I would not be adverse to my opinion not prevailing and a decision being made that a 10,000-person beta test is public enough for judgment.
This looks like easy money but ROI is so far off.
@Bradley, on re-reading this, the criteria is a public sale of this new service. The closed beta although may number is size, beta testers are not obligated to pay for the service. As such, the "fall" beta does not meet the "public sale" criteria and judgement cannot be made just yet.
Right, but the rumored "open beta" to follow likely does.
It's not clear that Sony plans to charge for Home even when it's out of beta.
Eric- Perhaps a clarification on whether this will trigger on public release or whether it requires money to exchange hands?
@Bradley/TIS, seems like an open beta will happen before a non-beta release. So, will an open beta (that is free) be considered for favorable judgment? IMO, doesn't really jive with the term "public sale" if the open beta is free. There is a chance that Home will not be subscription-based.
Of course, if the open beta is paid (i.e. subscription-based), then it would meet judgment criteria and the question above is moot..
It's already been announced by Sony that Home will be free. There is no intention, based on everything I've seen, to ever charge for it.
The open beta in (reportedly) October (as opposed to the very widespread closed beta that's currently underway) should result in a positive judgment.
Then again, this is the same discussion we had a month ago.
Current rumors are that the October release, if it happens, will be a 1.0 version (current beta is 0.98). Of course Sony hasn't confirmed anything and this current crop of rumors is all based off of a single message board post by one beta tester (out of the 10,000 or so). Not even an employee leak, yet it's spawned dozens, if not hundreds, of articles and blog posts. Anticipated release, much?
The rumor of firmware 2.5 and Home 1.0 as Open Beta for PS3 Home has been refuted. So, it won't be in October for sure. Question is, will it be open beta in November? Might be a good bet for a big score :)
From http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20081008-home-absent-from-otherwise...
Also strange was the absence of PlayStation Home. Typically, Home has be available for tours at events like this. Given that the network service is expected to launch in open beta next month, it was troubling not to see the software there. A Sony spokesperson reassured Ars that the service was still coming, though could not offer any exact dates or even solid timeframes for the beta's launch. "Showing Home in this kind of event is difficult; it's hard to give tours when the floor is this loud," explained the Sony rep. "The software is still on track for before Christmas, though." When pressed about the target date of November, the rep reiterated "before Christmas."
This one is cutting it close. Final stage of closed beta to kick off late October or early November. No mention on when this final stage concludes. Suffice to say, Open Beta will start in Japan before anywhere else when it happens.
Home beta client got hacked. Will it have adverse affect on launch date?
There are now indications of potential December date for Open Beta as the target date for late November may be slipping.
What a joke! PS3 Home now used as a marketing tool for its video series "Qore". Only annual subscribers to "Qore" that are 18yrs or older can get access to the closed Home beta. This one is beginning to look less likely to be open beta in November.
http://ps3.qj.net/Opsie-No-beta-invites-for-regular-Qore-subs-after-all/...
http://slinux.net/sony-corrects-qore-ad-home-access-for-subscribers-only
http://ps3star.com/post/6520356/Qore-Home-Beta-invites-for-annual-subscr...
This is beginning to look like a December open beta (before Xmas).
http://www.myfreeps3.net/ps3-news/10/sony-madly-working-to-hit-home-open...
http://www.n4g.com/ps3/News-222176.aspx
Sony has sent out word on the PlayStation forums that version 1.0 will hit the closed beta soon (but not that soon), and will be inviting a large number of extra testers once it happens.
Here's the official outline of events to come in the following weeks, as posted by TedtheDog:
This is looking certain to be judged UNFAVORABLY. Home v1.0 hitting closed beta on Nov 20. With invitations just being sent out with a couple more rounds of invites to follow and servers being put online next week, there is NO WAY that Open Beta will happen in November.
Other related articles:
http://ps3.qj.net/Home-Beta-v1-0-info-leaked-November-20-release-date-/p...
http://www.qj.net/Home-Beta-v1-0-info-leaked-November-20-release-date-/p...
http://www.computerandvideogames.com/article.php?id=202036
Despite all the hype and hope for a November 19th open beta, this has yet to happen. Sony still maintains an open beta before Xmas '08 but with email snafu on final closed beta invites ans deteriorating confidence on Sony, it is yet to be seen that it will happen this year at all. Nevertheless, unfavorable judgment can now be made for this prediction.
home will be out in december.
Current release schedule
* Closed beta: April 2007
* Open beta: By 25 December 2008[34]
* Final release date: TBA.
there you go.
Bradley - my understanding is this did not meet your requirements. Will close/judge at 0% unless you have any objections.
@TIS, this prediction clearly did not meet favorable judgment criteria as the community predicted. Unfavorable judgment should now be rendered to free up frozen $.
Dec 11 has been formalized as the launch date for open beta by SCEA..Just 11 days too late for favorable judgment.
Additional coverage from Engadget (http://www.engadget.com/2008/12/10/playstation-home-launching-globally-o...)
@TIS, please close this out. It is almost 2 weeks overdue. I have a very significant amount frozen on this prediction which I would like to make better use of. Bradley might have been MIA or on a long vacation. Haven't heard from him for a long time.
Judged. I really thought they would have gotten it out by Black Friday, but I was wrong.
Ian Lamont
Managing Editor
The Industry Standard
@Ian, thanks! It is my believe that their internal milestone that they tried to achieve was November rather than Dec. So, it could have easily happened as predicted but unfortunately, building up a network to serve the millions of potential Home users takes some time to iron out problems. Even the sending out invitations was problematic.
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Sony Corp. has delayed for the second time the release of its much-anticipated answer to Xbox Live Achievements - the virtual-community service for the PlayStation 3 known as Home.
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