Submitted by Yi-Wyn Yen01.29.2009
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This prediction is closed and has been judged.
The economic crisis has rapidly accelerated the demise of daily newspapers. The Seattle Times is the latest to announce it's in danger of filing for bankruptcy protection. Seattle's rival paper, the Seattle Post-Intelligencer, is up for sale and will likely fold if it cannot find a buyer by early March.
The days of delivering newspaper to your doorstep is coming to an end quicker than you think.
Prediction: One of the largest 15 daily U.S. newspapers will announce by June 30, 2009 that it will cease printing completely and publish content online or in a digital format only.
Here are the 15 largest daily U.S. newspapers that will be judged for this prediction. The dailies are based on print circulation size, according to Audit Bureau of Circulations:
1. USA Today
13. Boston Globe
15. Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Image: Laffy4k/Flickr
Price History
Prediction Statistics
| Betting Closes: | Jun 30 2009 | Current Consensus: | 7.94% | Total Bets: | 51 |
| Today's Change: | 0% | ||||
| Life Time High: | 51.25% | ||||
| Life Time Low: | 7.94% |
Comments
Nope, the maths won't work.
Maybe someday, but not yet. Most have huge but negotiaible labor costs - which even in the face of unions, can be adjusted in bankruptcy. These papers still churn out $$$ and most are the only major player in their markets.
@Matt, did you see this incredible headline? "Printing The NYT Costs Twice As Much As Sending Every Subscriber A Free Kindle"
News Corp set to trim newspaper jobs in US and UK
Philly newspapers, including Philadelphia Inquirer and News file for Chapter 11.
Hearst has announced the Seattle P-I will go web-only.
Time has published a list of top 10 newspapers that are likely to fold or go online only. The list includes the NY Daily News.
NY Times: "The Seattle Post-Intelligencer newspaper will produce its last printed edition on Tuesday and become an Internet-only news source, the Hearst Corporation said on Monday, making it by far the largest American newspaper to take that leap."
This would indicate that migration to online only will not be anytime soon on a mass scale
David, I think that is a little bit of wishful thinking on the part of traditionalists. Last year, both the NYT and LA Times were reporting tens of millions of unique visitors every month, which rivals their subscription- and newsstand-based print readerships, even if pass-along readers are included.
I think another factor that needs to be considered are the costs of printing newspapers relative to the ad and subscription revenue brought in. Even if a paper has hundreds of thousands of paying print subscribers, if subscription revenue and dwindling print ad revenue can't keep up with printing and distribution costs, it just doesn't make sense to keep the print edition going. It's too expensive, and most readers and advertisers would not accept higher print subscription and ad rates -- especially considering the online alternatives are so cheap and convenient.
My own personal prediction (explained on my blog a few months back) is that nearly all print publications will be dead or online-only in five years' time. That will disappoint many readers who prefer the print edition, but I don't see how print's high costs can be supported in an increasingly online-centric world.
Ian Lamont
Managing Editor
Judged negative.
Ian Lamont
Managing Editor
The Industry Standard
twitter.com/the_standard
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