Submitted by Yi-Wyn Yen01.30.2009
Thunderdome
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This prediction is closed and has been judged.
There were no venture-backed tech IPOs in Q4 2008. In fact, there were no venture-backed IPOs for any sector in the fourth quarter. San Antonio-based IT hosting company RackSpace was the last company to go public five months ago. The last time there were two straight quarters with zero IPOs was 34 years ago.
Prediction: No venture-backed U.S. tech company will go public by June 30, 2009. Venture capital firms that fund start-up companies defined by the National Venture Capital Association will be used to judge this prediction.
Image: Digiart2001/Flickr
Price History
Prediction Statistics
| Betting Closes: | Jun 28 2009 | Current Consensus: | 3.73% | Total Bets: | 29 |
| Today's Change: | -14.51% | ||||
| Life Time High: | 61.06% | ||||
| Life Time Low: | 3.73% |
Comments
@Yi-Wyn, I think the prediction verbiage needs a statement that defines a "VC-backed US tech company" to avoid any confusion. Then, the first public IPO for a company that matches the definition by end of June 2009 would render an unfavorable judgment. Otherwise, a favorable judgment will be rendered.
Does FriendFinder count? They filed for IPO on Dec 23, 2008.
Open Table actually filed for IPO today.
@David, Friendfinder would not count since the startup was acquired by Penthouse.
This begs the question "How long does it take from filing to actual offering and what is the process?". This dated article might shed some light on the question.
I think Medidata should definitely count in the case. I think it filed on Jan 26. VC backed, US Tech company....
Medidata filed on Dec 28, 2008.
http://tinyurl.com/atl34y
@Ekapat, thanks for the clarification. Ultimately what matters is that a company actually goes public by June 30, 2009.
@Ekapat, my bad. Got the dates crossed with Friendfinder.
LinkedIn, via TechCrunch: “We Can Go Public Any Time We Want To”
If all goes well, this prediction will close unfavorably next Tuesday when the Cincinnati-based company O'Gara Group IPOs (filed for IPO 8/22/08). Despite its name, it is a high tech company that focuses on high tech counter terrorism for the federal and state government. It is VC-funded by the Walnut Group.since 2005. Here is the IPO prospectus. Check out their IPO roadshow presentation here.
Interesting. Will keep an eye out on this.
MJN had a successful IPO last week breaking the IPO drought. Tomorrow sets the stage for the end of high tech IPO drought with the offering of O'Gara Group.
OGA IPO date is confirmed for 2/18.
Will keep an eye out on this but won't judge until something definitely happens.
Alas, O'Gara decided to postpone its IPO indefinitely due to market deterioration.
Yeah. I was kinda skeptical of an imminent IPO. Wishful thinking these days...
Changing World withdraws from IPO a sign for clean tech startup IPO drought to continue.
Rosetta Stone plans to go public the week of 4/13/09
Done deal. Rosetta Stone had successful IPO at $18/share on 4/15/09 and will begin trading at NYSE 4/16/09.
Waiting for the opening bell, and to see the listing. It's supposed to be "RST" on the NYSE, but I haven't seen any pricing info. Can anyone point me to a confirmation?
Ian Lamont
Managing Editor
@Ian, http://uk.reuters.com/business/quotes/quote?symbol=RST.N
Thanks David. Judged against the original prediction.
Ian Lamont
Managing Editor
The Industry Standard
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