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Over 650,000 jobs lost in March 2009?

Yi-Wyn Yen
Comments 4
This prediction is closed and has been judged.
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Judgment made on April 3, 2009: Unemployment rate reached 8.5% with more than 663,000 jobs lost in March. This prediction came true, which 94% of the community got right. -- The Industry Standard

More than 4.4 million Americans have lost their jobs since the recession started in December 2007 and more than 12.5 million are currently out of work. The Labor Department reported that 651,000 people lost their jobs in February, an 8.1% increase from the prior month.

This is the third straight month where 650,000 or more jobs have been lost. Monthly U.S. job losses have more than doubled since the fall of Lehman Brothers on Sept. 15, 2009. 

Here are the staggering numbers:

 

Month                        Total job losses                      Unemployment rate

September 2008             321,000                                   6.2%

October 2008                  380,000                                  6.6%

November 2008               597,000                                  6.8%

December 2008               681,000                                  7.2%  

January 2009                  655,000                                  7.6%

February 2009                 651,000                                  8.1%

Prediction: Job losses will hit 650,000 or more in March. The Labor Department will report preliminary numbers for March 2009 on April 3, which will be used to judge this prediction.

 

 

Price History

Prediction Statistics

Betting Closes:Apr 02 2009Current Consensus:94.27%Total Bets:17
Today's Change:
0%
Life Time High:94.27%
Life Time Low:33.18%

Comments


ADP just reported job loss at 742,000 in March relative to 697,000 for February (which is revised down to 706,000). Given the historical tight correlation between ADP and BLS metrics, I suspect BLS numbers will show a loss of over 650K.


Estimates for BLS number is around 658K.


Official numbers from BLS is 663K. Time to render favorable judgment.


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