Submitted by Eric Hill10.28.2008
Thunderdome
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This prediction is closed and has been judged.
Judgment: Not even close, which the community correctly predicted. Prediction closed, and judged at 0%. -- The Industry Standard
Original prediction: Depending on the source, current polls (1, 2, 3, 4, 5) currently show the Obama/McCain race relatively close with Obama leading an average of +7.2 points.
Polls, however, have been known to be wrong.
Some posit that as many as 10-15% of likely voters have not firmly committed to either of the choices available. Under these conditions, it’s still possible for McCain to accomplish a stunning defeat; the contest could be much closer than what many polls show.
Prediction: John McCain will win at least 265 electoral votes in the 2008 US presidential election, according to the CNN.com website. Using the CNN electoral map application, this total could include wins for McCain in Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Missouri, Colorado, and Nevada. We’ve also added New Hampshire to McCain’s list. To be clear, McCain may win any states in order to achieve the 265 threshold. The states mentioned is how we derived our figures.
Let the community decide. Place your bets below.
(Map source: Cnn.com; Photo: AP/ Carolyn Kaster)
Price History
Prediction Statistics
| Betting Closes: | Nov 03 2008 | Current Consensus: | 8.71% | Total Bets: | 31 |
| Today's Change: | 0% | ||||
| Life Time High: | 48.75% | ||||
| Life Time Low: | 3.56% |
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@Eric: You're kidding, right?
165 might be a more playable prediction.
I respectfully disagree. Even if you took away all of the states Cnn.com currently labels yellow (tossup states) McCain still has 174. Florida and Ohio tipping red doesn't seem like a big stretch to me at all considering the last two elections. Already that gets you to 221. It's totally possible.
A 7 point average poll lead shouldn't leave either side feeling overly confident.
@Eric, I agree with Bradley that 265 makes this a very lopsided prediction. 245 is much better allowing for bets on either side. Given the current consensus at 4%, I will make a token FOR bet for a potential big ROI.
It's only lopsided if you take the polls at face value. Trust me - it wasn't easy writing this prediction with the news that is out there. It does, however, make for an interesting prediction (I think). My personal feeling is that this is a lot closer than many want to admit regardless of which candidate you favor. Prior to the financial crisis, McCain was essentially tied with Obama.
I wanted to make a prediction that was technically possible, but pushed the envelope in terms of a potentially closer election than polls reveal (7 points isn't a very large gap).
If I'd made this too low, I might have been accused of stating the obvious, or showing some sort of bias. Taking this prediction on a purely numbers perspective, and not an emotional one, wasn't easy. ;)
I only hope you're on the money--plus 5. Then a well-spoken, well-dressed man with a harridan of a wife can return to the Senate where, hoping to mount a comeback in 2012, he will take no brave stands on a single issue and again work to arouse the hopes of lemmings from Manhattan's Upper West Side to the streets of San Francisco. Note to the potentially aggrieved left: Obama voted for F.I.S.A., giving the government the right to invade your privacy even more than the Patriot Act did. He's nothing but a fraud.
He said he could no more disown Rev. Wright than he could being black. Then he disowned
the good Rev. after he stated that Obama was a "politician." Under the bus you go, Jeremiah. Obama is a fraud. He joined the Church to overcome doubts in his community that he was "really black," and
did not leave until it became politically impossible for him to remain. He is a fraud. His campaign was launched in the home of Bill Ayers, no longer a terrorist but certainly a man who saw in Obama a man who could put his (no doubt) never-abandoned radical agenda into place. He partied with Palestinian champions Edward Said and Rashid Khalidi, yet, a joint Israel/US flag pin affixed to his shoulder, assured AIPAC that he will do everything necessary to prevent Iran from getting the bomb ...slyly repeating the word "everything" to emphasize his in tentions to take the miitary route, if necessary. This the same pragmatist who advocates direct talks with Ahmadenijad, toady of the murderous mullahs.
Again, a fraud. McCain is hardly a great candidate, and Sara Palin is dementedly dangerous. But perhaps all the fainters and Obama sycophants from coast to coast ought to come to grips with the fact that their Savior is a spectacularly ambitious, narcissistic politician, like all other politicians. And that , should he be elected,he will disappoint them mightily in the first term of his presidency. He'll want to be re-elected, after all, and this would prove impossible were he to govern from the left. We'll stay in Iraq because notwithstanding their protestations to the contrary (they're politicians, too) the country's government knows it needs the US to remain to prevent an inevitable secytarian bloodbath and Iranian domanince in the country--something the Saudis, the protection of whom is our number 1 priority in the region (if you think it's Israel, think logically: which country really means more to the US's continuation as a superpower?)
He will fraud it up, and all those nice, well-scrubbed democrats in Oregon et ali. will weep into their hankies, the Daily Kos will fulminate to the point of madness, and the staff of MSNBC will choke on their own partisan venom.
So if McCain wins, great. If Obama wins, it'll be a pleasure to watch him topple in the estimation of his polyannish supporters..
@Eric, to some extent, I agree that the electoral votes would be closer to a tie than all the poll stipulates. I have a feeling that this consensus % is going to stabilize around the 30% as we draw closer to Nov 3.
While my reference to 165 was intentionally a bit of hyperbole, I do believe the final count will be closer to that than to 265. Probably considerably closer.
To the point where I'd take a side wager of S$1,000,000 that it will be (ie that McCain receives less than 215 electoral votes) in a heartbeat.
For reference, not only do I think Obama gets all of CNN's yellow states, with the possible exception of Missouri, I think he'll take Indiana. Balancing IN and MO, and assuming they'll split (one way or the other) I think 174 is about right for McCain. If both go to Obama, McCain gets 163. If McCain gets both he ends with 185. That's the range I'm looking for.
MT, ND, and GA are in discussion but I see all of them staying Red. NC and OH are in discussion the other direction but I see them staying Blue (and, yes, I recognize that CNN currently has them yellow).
This site seems to be on the up-and-up on how the votes will likely play out .. As of this comment, McCain is looking at less than 160 electoral votes.
BTW, check out the Senate outlook. Democrats at 59! I have a suggestion for Democrats hitting at least 60 seats. Unfortunately, not getting enough votes for now :(
None of this means squat. The only thng that matters is how 50 million voters will vote next week, and no one knows that.
Here's another excellent resource that is tracking this: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
Re: the site you noted - I reviewed it, since always looking for neutral information. But unfortunately, the site itself says that it gets far more Democrats than Republicans, in the order of 8-to-1. so, not a reasonable site for neutral comparisons. Appears they don't even try to norm their data to account for the heavy one-sidedness of data. Oh well.
Sorry, I didn't realize my comment would not link directly to the comment I was replying to - the site in question is http://www.electoral-vote.com/.
You cannot help the poor
by destroying the rich.
You cannot strengthen the weak
by weakening the strong.
You cannot bring about prosperity
by discouraging thrift.
You cannot lift the wage earner up
by pulling the wage payer down.
You cannot further the brotherhood of man
by inciting class hatred.
You cannot build character and courage
by taking away people’s initiative and independence.
You cannot help people permanently by doing for
them, what they could and should do for themselves.
~ Abraham Lincoln
@TriMarkC, thanks for the link. I had found electoral-vote.com earlier this year, but forgot about it.
Cheers.
@Eric, wasn't I the one that posted the link in Comment #9? Anyways, has TIS thought a little more about my 60 seat prediction? This one should be an interesting play with Ted Stevens case, the chances are now sufficient for bets on both sides of the fence (which makes for a fun prediction).
The sound of a true republican. Hahahahaha. It must have taken a lot of guts to say the last line.
"Abraham Lincoln": I am afraid that these seven phrases have been erroneously attributed to you. According to a State of Illinois web page, there were 10 phrases, not seven, and they were penned by Rev. William Boetcker decades after Lincoln died.
Ian Lamont
Managing Editor
The Industry Standard
Dear Ian,
no matter who wrote that, I got that from another website.
But how true those words are.
I do think amusing that this prediction is trading lower than the chances of Obama not being president (ie McCain receiving 270+ (or, in theory, a few ultra-unlikely possibilities)).
And recognize that I share at least some blame in that, although I pushed them to the same level when I dropped a bunch into both predictions a few days ago.
I'm feeling less comfortable about IN, but more comfortable about MO. I still think they split. GA is more in play now, but I think it still stays in McCain's column. I still have this contest at 174-364.
Bush doesn't stand a chance in hell.
/I'm sorry, did I say Bush?
//Same difference.
///Game point, bros, dems control everything after Nov. 4.
////Get used to it.
I learned about intrade.com on Hardball the other night. Has Obama with 364 electoral votes to McCain 176. Perhaps they are right!!
@Bradley, I think you're probably pretty close with that assessment. My money would be on 210-225.
Incidentally, we're working on plans to develop multiple outcome bets.
It depends on who wins the East Coast. Once the networks start shooting their mouths off at 9PM ET, the other Time Zones have from 1-5 hours (Hawaii) to decide to vote to "correct" the East Coast Votes. Also the antiquated "Winner Takes All" Electoral College Delegate allocations means that even if a candidate loses in Electoral Districts their EC Delegates still get assigned to him/her. The proper way is to just give 2 ECs to the State winner and one EC to the winner of an Electoral District (ie: The way Congress gets elected). Under the current system it is possible for the "Winner" to get less than 40% of the popular vote or win a number of large states (getting all their ECs) and have only 30% of the actual district votes.
Actually, now that the dust is beginning to settle, http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ was nearly completely accurate. They currently show the exact same total for Obama (349) as the NY Times. Assuming North Carolina holds it's razor thin lead for Obama, 538 will have missed the final total by only 15 electoral votes. Pretty impressive. Most of us presumed a tad more would fall into the McCain/Palin totals in the end. An incredible night last night.
@Larry (link), at last count, over 119 million votes were cast. An historic day.
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