Submitted by The Standard08.07.2008
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This prediction is closed and has been judged.
Judgment on January 8, 2008: This did not occur by the end of 2008. On January 6, 2009, the Cubs' website reported that the winning bid could be announced soon. However, it was not made in time to meet the requirements of this prediction. So, whether Mark Cuban is successful or not is a moot point. -- The Industry Standard
Original prediction: Ever since opening day of 2007, rumors have been heard (from left field?) that Mark Cuban, billionaire dot-com entrepreneur turned Dallas Maverick’s owner and blog maverick, was on the short list for buying one of baseball’s most storied franchises, the Chicago Cubs. Those rumors became fact when Cuban submitted his application to Major League Baseball to purchase the team last July.
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The Tribune Company, the current owner of the Cubs, announced their desire sell the team by the end of the 2007 season. As reported by ESPN last year, “The team is one of Tribune's richest assets. Bidding for the ballclub and historic Wrigley Field, however, is certain to be fiercely competitive. Analysts have estimated the Cubs could fetch $600 million or more, a far cry from the $20.5 million Tribune paid in 1981.”
That deadline came and went. But news around the sale is beginning to heat up again. Could baseball be warming to the idea of Mark Cuban joining their ranks?
While Cuban’s name has always been on the short list of buyers, his legendary antics as the owner of the NBA’s Dallas Mavericks could be making the conservative baseball owners queasy. They can reject his bid without any reason given.
As reported by the NY Times on August 3, 2008, “Bob DuPuy, the president of Major League Baseball, . . . praised Cuban’s Internet and technology expertise. “He’s been outspoken on issues, but we’ve had owners who are outspoken as well,” he said. With his tongue lodged somewhere in his cheek, he said, “I’ve not heard of him referred to as a loudmouth.””
Will baseball embrace the outspoken and opinionated personality of Mark Cuban, or will they go the less controversial (and starchier) route?
This is a prediction that Mark Cuban will make a successful bid for the Chicago Cubs in 2008, and will be the new owner of the current top team in the National League. Considering where the Cubs are today, a deal like this might not be announced until the end of the season in order to avoid distraction (although a team with its first World Series title in 100 years might change the price).
(photo credit: kk+)
Price History
Prediction Statistics
| Betting Closes: | Dec 31 2008 | Current Consensus: | 9.98% | Total Bets: | 51 |
| Today's Change: | 0% | ||||
| Life Time High: | 66.82% | ||||
| Life Time Low: | 9.98% |
Comments
As a fan, I personally like this idea. After seeing what Cuban did to the Mavs, his enthusiasm and huge competitive spirit supporting the Cubbies could be like a dream come true. Have no idea what the baseball owners think about it, though. And I wouldn't want him down in the dugout. Leave that to Lou.
I don't believe this prediction should be on TIS
@Shiv, it's an experiment. We obviously want to expand the engagement with our prediction market while still maintaining a connection to the tech and online industry. Mark Cuban is one of the most successful Internet moguls - mainly due to the sale of Broadcast.com to Yahoo! for nearly 6 billion dollars.
We have lots of predictions about Google, Apple, iPhones and Yahoo. And, we have lots of excellent smaller predictions about very targeted tech topics. These all obviously create core of the market.
A prediction like this one is an experiment to broaden our scope. It's a tricky balance, but a fun one.
My first reaction was the same as Shiv's, but on about 8 seconds of reflection I came to the same conclusion (for close but slightly different reasons) as Eric.
I've been one of the people who's been going around point out concept-drift when people keep suggesting non-tech issues in the suggestions area, but I'm completely okay with this one. Much better connection to the Tech industry than oil futures. :)
On that note, Bradley/Shiv, if you think of any similar predictions in which we spread our reach to a wider market while still maintaining our tether to online/tech, let's give them a whirl.
I am in agreement with this prediction as Cuban has significant ties to technology (internet and High Def activities).
So, non-tech activities related to folks like Richard Branson (Virgin Airlines, Virgin Mobile, Virgin Galactic), Paul Allen (Microsoft, Charter Communications) are reasonable?
I didn't even blink on this one when I saw it. The man has made pots of money on Internet technology and was on Icahn's Yahoo slate.
@TIS, be sure to clear up that Cuban is part of the group that made the $1.3B offer (highest bid thus far) for Cubs. So that there is no room for debate, the prediction is for Cubs to be acquired by the group that Cuban is a part of.
I love this prediction. Check out http://www.cubanandthecubs.com
Another endorsement for Cuban
http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chicago-cubs-bidders-narrowed-aug...
hmmm.. someone made a significant against bet to take it down to the 38%. Then I think Bradley popped it back up to 49%.
IMO, This one is too close to call at this time. Cuban might have the highest bid but his achilles heel is that he has yet to garner local Chcagoan support to take part on his bid. He is the sentimental favorite however but in the business world, it is all about $ and local business support. Think I will remain sidelined on this one for now.
Looks like Ricketts is now the favorite despite Cuban's popularity.
http://wap.chicagotribune.mlogic3g.com/detail.jsp?key=174396&rc=bu&full=...
http://www.bizofbaseball.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&c...
Wow, that does change things a bit. Very interesting indeed. However, from that tribune link, it says, "It's not clear, though, if Ricketts made the highest offer in the first phase of the auction that was completed last month." So, Ricketts matches the profile well. But I wouldn't count out Cuban so swiftly. His pockets are a lot, lot deeper. Money talks.
It just shows that Cuban has stiff competition in Ricketts who is more than capable to raise his bid as well. With about 4 months to go (decision to be made by year end), things are going to get interesting. How many people in the history has significantly owned more than one major sport franchise? Yet, with 5 bidders still in play, Cuban chances is not yet above 50%. The odds of this prediction is still against him at this time (IMHO).
Looks like final bids are now going to happen late September or early October. That means, winner selection may occur in October but will takes about 1-2 months to be ratified by MLB .
It still doesn't look positive for Cuban at this point as he has yet to secure Chicagoan business support in his bid. If MVC Capital (not part of the final 5) decides to join Klaff's group, then Cuban chances diminishes even more. There is a chance MVC Capital may join Cuban's bid.
@TIS, can a judgment be made when the winner is announced but before it is ratified or do we have to wait until ratification which makes official the winner.
@David, "This is a prediction that Mark Cuban will make a successful bid for the Chicago Cubs in 2008." Ratification seems pretty important in order for that to occur. If Cuban is announced as the top bidder, but ratification fails, then the prediction would have been judged prematurely.
@Eric, thanks. So, judgement will most likely not rendered on this prediction until near end of year regardless of who was deemed to have a successful bid given that it has to be ratified. ROI is over 3 months away on this one.
Probably right, @David. Some "stocks" simply have a longer ROI than others.
Wow.. someone either cashed out or just pushed the % down to 34% from 50% in excess of over S$300K). Was it because of something I said?
Both rumors make sense
1) Winning bid is by Thomas Ricketts!
2) Cuban was kept in the final five to drive the final bids higher!
@TIS, given the financial market meltdown, Cubs owner is considering delaying making a decision to allow bidders to reformulate the bids funded by debts in order to reduce his tax bill. If there is a delay and a decision still needs to be ratified, this may take place AFTER end of year. What is TIS position on how to handle this new development?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/29/credit-crisis-hurts-cubs_n_1302...
http://www.mouthpiecesports.com/blog/2008/09/29/even-sam-zell-hates-this...
If no final formal decision on eventual winner can be made in 2008, will judgment be UNFAVORABLE regardless if Cuban becomes the eventual winner?
If there is a delay, and the time expires, this would be judged at 0%. But not before the time expires or Cuban is announced the new owner. Recent developments might cast some doubt on a sale this year, but it's certainly not definitive. We let the market ride itself out.
"Mark Cuban's desire to purchase the Cubs hasn't lost any steam because of the recent financial crisis." -- Oct. 10
"Even in this economy, the team and Wrigley Field are attractive to investors"
But... "Now, it could be weeks or months before money flows freely again to finance such a deal. One bidder, Mark Cuban, owner of the National Basketball Association's Dallas Mavericks said last week that, "Even if we wanted to close the day after tomorrow, the banks might not be able to close.""
Looks like this one will be judged AFTER time expiration. New sale structures not going to be made available to bidders until January 2009.
Looks like Cuban won't be making it into the final round as the good 'ol boys club of MLB and Bob Selig has indicated a no vote for Cuban at the General Managers meeting.
http://www.suntimes.com/sports/deluca/1266088,CST-SPT-deluca07.article
This isn't a done deal, but yes - it is looking less and less likely IMO. Your article, David, seems to be one of the last nails in the coffin for this deal to transpire.
Of the remaining 5 bidders, they have been asked to resubmit new offers (including financing details) by Nov 26 to be considered further!
http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=484921
http://markinchicago.typepad.com/cuban_and_the_cubs/2008/11/tribune-desp...
Very interesting, @David, thanks for the tip!
Mark Cuban might now be distracted now that he is being charged for Insider Trading by SEC.
http://www.sec.gov/news/press/2008/2008-273.htm
Saw that this morning on the NY Times. Not sure if this hurts his chances, or helps it? ;) One of our editors joked we should create a prediction that his upcoming trial will be shown on HDNet.
@Eric, jest aside ... airing the trial on HDNet would have the likelihood of 0.0000000000000000000000000001% happening if it is greater than 0%. Perhaps a more realistic prediction is "Cuban found guilty of insider trading".
What does the following mean from SEC?
"The Commission's complaint seeks to permanently enjoin Cuban from future violations of the federal securities laws, disgorgement (with prejudgment interest)"
As I recall, anyone found guilty of insider trading is prohibited from being in a position with executive power (see Martha Stewart's sentence). Wouldn't this hamper Cuban's bid for Cubs?
Between the General Managers vote, and the insider trading claim, I don't see how he could possibly succeed picking up the Cubs by years-end...
From http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20081119&content_id=3685525&vkey...
"On Monday, news broke that Cuban was targeted in a civil proceeding by the Securities and Exchange Commission, which is looking into insider trading regarding the sale of personal stock. One MLB owner said on Wednesday that Cuban's bid for the Cubs would go on the back burner for the time being until the SEC issue is resolved."
Also, according to SI.com (picked up by http://www.fannation.com/truth_and_rumors/view/78171) , it seems Cuban is OUT of the running as the bid is not considered serious enough. According to reports, only 4 serious bids are in consideration at this time.
Latest.... 3 bids submitted by Thanksgiving deadline. Insiders hinted that Cuban isn't one of the 3.
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20081201&content_id=3697270&vkey...
http://www.editorandpublisher.com/eandp/news/article_display.jsp?vnu_con...
http://markinchicago.typepad.com/cuban_and_the_cubs/2008/12/sionara-cuba...
@TIS, if this is confimed, can unfavorable judgment be rendered?
This is a done deal regardless if Cuban submitted a bid or not. Decision will NOT be made until Spring which is AFTER the judgment date criteria.
Did not happen by end of 2008. Unfavorable judgment can now be rendered.
I was thinking the same thing [judgement should be rendered fairly quickly], but we're still waiting as if this was actually difficult...
Tribune Co. has picked the Ricketts family as the winning bidder to purchase the Chicago Cubs, according to multiple reports.
It was a rather obvious choice ... it was alluded to way back in late Aug or early Sept 08. Mark Cuban is not part of the "old boys club".
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