Submitted by The Standard05.14.2008
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This prediction is closed and has been judged.
Jeremy Toeman has a really interesting prediction up on LIVEdigitally this morning, reasoning that there is a perfect storm of factors that will produce a huge leap in MacBook (i.e. notebook, non-desktop) market share in the next year.
To quote Jeremy:
1.) Vista is just a disaster (I can count on one hand the number of people I know personally who think it’s a step up from XP), and there’s no solution imminently on the horizon.
2.) The PC manufacturers are caught in an Innovator’s Dilemma moment where the thousands of configurable options on a PC are what their customers have asked for, yet don’t truly want.
3.) The price point of an entry level MacBook is on par with a Windows notebook.
4.) Finally, and possibly most importantly, the introduction of BootCamp and Parallels have enabled the “tentative” customers to make the leap, knowing they can run Windows for anything they miss (Outlook!)
This is a prediction that Apple laptops (we're going to be liberal here, i.e. not JUST the MacBook line and/or is successors, whatever the name, we're talking ALL Mac laptops in aggregate) will have at least 50% market share by this time next year.
As for the judging, this could be somewhat challenging. Oftentimes this type of data is released a good quarter after the time in question. Judgment will be made as soon as a metric showing Apple's sales are reported by a solid source. If a user finds this information before we do, and we accept the source, we'll award that user S$10,000 Standard Dollars for helping to close the prediction.
Related content from IDC: Worldwide and Regional Server 2007–2011 Forecast: April 2007
Price History
Prediction Statistics
| Betting Closes: | May 15 2009 | Current Consensus: | 6.60% | Total Bets: | 91 |
| Today's Change: | 0% | ||||
| Life Time High: | 50.00% | ||||
| Life Time Low: | 5.73% |
Comments
XP still dominates, and businesses are sticking with it. 50% is too much. Perhaps 25% is achievable.
Mac laptop share is south of 10% today. This is easy money.
Apple garners 4.6% of notebook market share in 1Q08. This is a far cry from the 50% target for next year.
@Abner, agree on easy money but the ROI on this is so far away. Much better plays available for several months to come.
No Chance.
If this were limtied to consumers only. And US only. And exluding everything but Vista PCs. Then maybe.
1) linux and xp are available as well.
2) huh? laptops always have limited options.
3) not compared to a 600USD dell new.
4) I run OS X on my used ThinkPad, and Apple opened up the vitualization gates on OS X.
plus there is the MID market to consider now with the likes of the eeepc, are they laptops or not? <400USD for cost conscious consumers and children's market.
I wouldn't want to put a bet on it but with all the new Atom based laptops like the eeepc, I wouldn't be surprised if Apple's market share went down, not up.
Apple’s North American notebook market share surges to double digits. "Their North American market share grew 60 percent in the second quarters of 2008 as compared to the same quarter last year, according to a report by DisplaySearch."
Despite the torrid growth, Apple market share just barely broke 10%. That points to a long ROI that most likely render an unfavorable decision after bet is closed.
This one won't pass. It was made in a different era, when people had more money to spend and the netbook craze hadn't really taken off.
Ian Lamont
Managing Editor
The Industry Standard
twitter.com/ilamont
Readers, if you see sources confirming Apple's market share is below 50%, please post them here or email ian@thestandard
Ian Lamont
Managing Editor
The Industry Standard
twitter.com/ilamont
Still no estimates out there. Keeping an eye peeled ...
Ian Lamont
Managing Editor
The Industry Standard
twitter.com/ilamont
Is this ever going to be judged?
Judged negative. I don't have a report that says "Apple's share of the notebook market is X%" but I can make a judgment, based on this IDC data and Apple's most recent quarterly conference call. The IDC estimates did not even place Apple in the top five of worldwide market share of all PC sales for 2Q 2009. That means it must be below 5.3% (which is #5 Toshiba's total share). Even if Apple's market share is 5.299% (about 3.4 million units) and every single one of them is a notebook computer (it wasn't, judging by the AAPL conference call), that would still be just a fraction of the total notebook market, which was at least 33 million units last quarter and probably much higher (based on the fact that laptop sales have captured more than 50% of the overall PC market for several years, and laptop sales have been growing).
Ian Lamont
Managing Editor
The Industry Standard
twitter.com/the_standard
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