Intel (INTC) third-quarter revenue $9 billion or more?

If one believes the pronouncements by some of the world's top computer manufacturers, the tech industry is pulling out of a slump. Intel (INTC) is one of the latest companies to revise revenue estimates upwards; the company now expects revenue for the third quarter to hit $9 billion (plus or minus $200 million). That's significantly higher than the earlier expectation of $8.5 billion (plus or minus $400 million).

What's driving the optimism? Rising chip sales are one factor, as well as strength in certain categories of processors (such as Intel's Atom, which powers the popular class of cheap laptops known as netbooks). There's also a belief that consumers and SMBs are preparing to upgrade their computers, as the economy pulls out of the recession and Microsoft readies its new Windows 7 operating system for an October release.

On the other hand, Intel's expected revenue is still well below the third quarter levels for 2008. Last October, Intel recorded net revenue of $10.2 billion for the quarter, 13% above the company's projection for Q3 2009. Moreover, signs that the economy is pulling out of a recession have to be taken in context: Many millions of people are still unemployed, buried in debt, or otherwise unable to purchase the new gadgets and gear powered by Intel technology.

Prediction: Intel's third-quarter revenue for 2009 is at least $9 billion (not rounded up). Results are scheduled to be announced on October 13.