Submitted by The Standard08.18.2008
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This prediction is closed and has been judged.
Judgment on September 23, 2008: T-Mobile officially announced the release date for the HTC Dream/G1 today as October 22, 2008, as The Standard's community predicted. T-Mobile is also taking pre-orders. Judged at 100%. -- The Industry Standard
Original Prediction: Engadget broke the news today that the FCC approved HTC’s request for short-term confidentiality. Venturebeat then unearthed the documents on the design attachments on the FCC's website.
On the site, the attachment from HTC titled “conf reg” states, “We are requesting the commission to grant short-term confidentiality request on the following attachments until Nov. 10th, 2008.”
While rumors have speculated for some time on the release of the fabled “Googlephone,” one could make a strong case that the HTC Dream is in fact that legend turned reality.
This is a prediction that T-Mobile’s HTC phone, The Dream, will be released in the US on or before November 10, 2008, and that it will be running the Google Android mobile OS. The Dream must be available for ordering online or via the T-Mobile retail outlets by November 10, 2008, for a favorable judgment.
Price History
Prediction Statistics
| Betting Closes: | Nov 07 2008 | Current Consensus: | 99.26% | Total Bets: | 44 |
| Today's Change: | 4.00% | ||||
| Life Time High: | 99.26% | ||||
| Life Time Low: | 50.00% |
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Comments
This one will (potentially) lock up money for a long time, with a closing date of Sept. 18 and a judgment date as late as Nov. 10.
Good catch! TIS should push the bet closing date out to a better date such as Nov 1.
That was an error on my part. Thanks for catching that, Bradley.
@TIS, does pre-sale ordering (to get on a waiting list) qualify as meeting the criteria even though the device is not officially launched?
That's a tough question. I think when we all see the "launch" we should all know it. My guess is if there was a pre-order somewhere, T-Mobile/HTC/Google would have made an announcement prior to that. This is too important a device for all parties to try and sneak it in under the wire.
@Eric, personally, I think pre-sale ordering should NOT count, Due to hype and pent-up demand, pre-sale ordering can occur before product is ready for launch. An announcement can be made without specificity on date such as "You can pre-order now and will be shipped when the product is launched (currently targeting November)". This happens quite often for games and gaming consoles where pre-order can happen months if not weeks before launch. I think the launch date by Nov 10 is the critical criteria that must be met (online ordering or at retail locations are subject to the launch date).
Depending on decision on pre-sale ordering .... this can be judged as early as September 17 (pre-order) or Oct 13 (launch date) ... there are plenty of activities on the "leaked" T-Mobile pre-order/launch info today. Here is one example
You're scaring me with today's move David....
Unless, of course, that was Kevin making a big play.
@Bradley, I do not have any position on this prediction since Aug 28. So, any swings on this in the last few days are NOT caused by me.
Mmmmm. Probably Kevin then.
It took over a million to (mostly) reverse today's dip.
Wonder if he's seen news somewhere or was just playing for a huge score.
The only news was T-Mobile launching HTC Dream in UK around November. There was a blog entry (for a site that normally reviews handsets) which alluded to an October timeframe. Still, you never know what HTC is up to with their gag order on specs and possible logistic issues plus stability of Android SDK. As you have indicated, there is enough volume now that it takes a lot to move it a bit. At near 90% and no guaranteed certainty, the Risk/Reward may not be there for me to participate any longer. I did get in early (54%) though before cashing out (79%).
For those who haven't heard it .... official announcement from T-Mobile slated for September 23rd. Although unlikely, there is still a chance that T-Mobile announcement may miss the Nov 10 target. Could be a chance for a huge score for those betting against. The question is, do you have the guts?
Looks like an short ROI on this prediction. Links to the September 23 date in previous comment
http://www.informationweek.com/news/internet/google/showArticle.jhtml?ar...
http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersEdge/idUSN1230844220080912?pageNum...
http://androidcommunity.com/android-imminent-t-mobile-key-partner-confir...
September 23 confirmed
http://www.thestandard.com/news/2008/09/16/t-mobile-android-phone-hit-st...
Yeah, I saw that news today a few hours ago. This is looking pretty dang solid. The release will be early October, if the sources are correct.
The Microsoft ZunePhone will be out during this period also!
The iPhumb is a dead duck!
http://fakesteveballmer.blogspot.com
Phone is now showing up on T-Mobile website (customer portal). Ordering is imminent.
http://www.engadget.com/2008/09/19/g1-appears-on-t-mobiles-site/
This is a done deal. Officially available Oct 22 at $179!
http://www.engadget.com/2008/09/23/live-from-t-mobiles-android-event-in-...
http://www.engadget.com/2008/09/23/t-mobiles-g1-gets-release-date-and-pr...
Existing customers can get it TODAY !!!!!!
http://www.crunchgear.com/2008/09/23/t-mobile-g1-launch-liveblog/
Ordering at T-Mobile website starting today ...
http://www.t-mobileg1.com/pre-order-g1.aspx
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