Submitted by Terrence Brown04.15.2008
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This prediction is closed and has been judged.
Judgment made on January 12, 2009: Google runs mobile operating system Android but has yet to introduce its own PC-based OS.. -- The Industry Standard.
Original prediction: It seems every day Google is coming up with new ways to impact our daily lives.
Therefore, one could reason Google's Android cellphone OS was simply the beginning as Google looks towards home and business computing (and not purely running software inside a browser window).
One potential growth market could be a more fully developed OS.
This is a prediction that Google will announce plans before the end of the year to release an open source operating system - i.e., one that can be fully operational on a desktop computer and serve as a basis for that computer - not simply Android as it currently stands running on a PC, nor an emulator, but a real-deal OS. (Let us not mince words.)
If this comes true, this operating system will be viewed as a direct threat against Windows and OS X.
The intended goal need only be announced by Google publicly, that it also be open source based, and reported by the mainstream media in the US some time in 2008. Rumors do not count. It needs to be official.
This prediction will close bets on Dec. 24, 2008, and be judged on Dec. 31, 2008.
(Ed. note: Prediction has been modified by The Standard edit staff.)
Price History
Prediction Statistics
| Betting Closes: | Dec 24 2008 | Current Consensus: | 11.41% | Total Bets: | 63 |
| Today's Change: | 0% | ||||
| Life Time High: | 61.06% | ||||
| Life Time Low: | 11.41% |
Comments
Google is great at bringing carefully planned, methodically disruptive technology into our lives, but I think they would fair better if they surprised us with a web OS, rather than a desktop based, open source solution. A direct threat to Microsoft's core product is not a conceivable victory (but then Google advertisers would be happy). However, if Google were to go full court on something like a web based OS, it just may raise some interest, and create a stir. I think I may bet on this one, since the odds are high. This is definitely something to watch for.
Isn't this what Linux is? I don't get it.
There has been a lot of rumors around other products from Google, like a Gbrowser (why not to buy Moziilla Firefox instead?) and GoS, but they seem noise to me. Google is not interested in anything than advertisement. In act, they did not succeed in creating another kind of disruptive apps: neither Gmail, nor GDocs and Spreadsheets are more than advertisement extensions.
In fact, if they were trying to compete in Operating System platforms with Microsoft, and bearing in mind most of Google new applicactions came out of buying other companies, I feel is most likely that Google try to acquire Red Hat or other Linux distribution provider than trying to create a new GoS from scratch or to develop their own Linux distribution.
Even if Google does have plans for an open source OS, they aren't going to be able to announce it this year - maybe mid-2009. Not enough street rumors have surfaced this year to make an '08 announcement feasible.
Haiku OS has been supported by Google in their Code Drive they had. Perhaps Google will take over, or maybe they already have.
Doesn't gOS already exist?
I'll bet against this, because Google must believe in the decline of the PC as we know it and it would be foolish just out of jealousy to fight Microsoft on their turf.
Is Android going to be open source? Because it's coming, and it's going to be on more than just phones (supposedly).
@Eric, Absent of extension of Android into PC environment, this prediction may be considered a done deal. Nowhere in the prediction does it require the criteria to be Google to be like a Microsoft selling OS for PCs, mandate a completely brand new OS nor restrict Google from collaborating and enhancing an open source OS.
In the recent LinuxWorld conference (Aug 4-7), Google is collaborating with open source developers to enhance Linux OS with applications targeting low-cost Linux PC (i.e. netbooks, etc). See http://www.pcadvisor.co.uk/news/index.cfm?newsid=102679 and
http://www.linuxworld.com/news/2008/080608-google-pushing-software-to-lo...
As such, it would meet all the required criterias:
1) The enhanced Linux OS is fully operational on a desktop computer and serve as a basis for that computer
2) The enhanced Linux OS will be a threat to MacOS and Windows.
3) Announcement made publicly and before end of year
If that isn't enough, as indicated by Kaj, Good OS (gOS) already exist and is the nifty Linux distribution powering Everex gPC (http://www.walmart.com/catalog/product.do?product_id=7754614#Specificati...). Google and Good collaborated to pre-load Google's Gadget mini-applications on GOS Gadgets 3. This is already happening.
All the rumors about Google OS .... is really a web browser instead
http://googlesystem.blogspot.com/2008/09/google-os-is-actually-browser-g...
http://www.eweek.com/c/a/Linux-and-Open-Source/Googles-Sergey-Brin-Denie...
As referenced by http://www.thinkgos.com/cloud.php, gOS has gone Cloud! Does it meet the criteria for this prediction? No, since it isn't developed by Google although it is packed with lots of GoogleGadgets, iGoogle, etc.
Did not happen. Unfavorable judgment can now be rendered.
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