Submitted by Ian Lamont05.28.2009
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This prediction is closed and has been judged.
While the smartphone market sizzles with new products and platform updates from Palm, BlackBerry, and Apple, there is also interest in Google's Android platform. However, there have been few actual Android phones to date.
That may change this year. Andy Rubin, senior director for Mobile Platforms for Google, told the New York Times that the company believes there will be between 18 and 20 phones worldwide using the Android operating system by year's end. He did not identify carriers or manufacturers.
This leads to the question of how many will be available to consumers in the United States. The New York Times blog post said Rubin believes carriers will be slower to adopt Android in the United States owing to a desire to design more distinctive phones, but it did not say how many phones he thinks will be released for the U.S. market out of the 18-20 total.
Rumors and reports indicate that a handful of carriers and manufacturers have plans for Android releases, including T-Mobile (the G2/Magic, see video below) and Samsung but there are no confirmed release dates as of this writing.
Prediction: By Thanksgiving 2009 (which falls on November 26 this year), there will be four new Android mobile phone models available to U.S. customers. The phones must be distinct models, as opposed to variations of the same phone or an update of T-Mobile's G1 phone. In addition, they must be available to buy or get as part of an existing carrier contract by Thanksgiving 2009, as opposed to announcements or presale availability.
Video: A Vodafone Android G2 demo model (Source: Gizmodo)
Android G2: HTC Magic Hands ON from Gizmodo on Vimeo.
Price History
Prediction Statistics
| Betting Closes: | Nov 20 2009 | Current Consensus: | 95.03% | Total Bets: | 44 |
| Today's Change: | 3.35% | ||||
| Life Time High: | 95.03% | ||||
| Life Time Low: | 47.50% |
Comments
Two Android phones from Motorola by the end of the year, according to the WSJ:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124568278404137309.html
If the G2 comes through as well as one of the Samsung phones, that will be enough to judge this prediction favorably.
On the other hand, does the Pre, a $99 iPhone, and continuing wins by BlackBerry give Android carriers pause for thought?
Ian Lamont
Managing Editor
The Industry Standard
twitter.com/the_standard
Question? How is a device that is the same hardware except with some tweaks in firmware to cater to different carriers be counted?
According to Motorola to debut Android phones in Verizon and T-Mobile
"Motorola-made Android phone that Verizon will launch is that it will have hardware similar to the T-Mobile device."
David: That's a good point, and I overlooked that in the article.
However, the phrasing of the prediction says "distinct" models, and that's what I'll use to judge the prediction. If it's a situation where the same hardware is offered by two different carriers -- like the BB Curve 8900 being offered by AT&T and T-Mobile -- that will count as one model, not two.
Ian Lamont
Managing Editor
The Industry Standard
twitter.com/the_standard
Here's a website that lists available, upcoming, and rumored Android phones-
http://phandroid.com/phones/#available
You have to do a bit more digging to determine availability in the U.S.
The list looks pretty thin. I think if this prediction is going to be judged positively, the next few months -- especially September and October, when products have to be primed for the school and holiday shopping seasons -- will be key.
Ian Lamont
Managing Editor
The Industry Standard
twitter.com/the_standard
There are fresh rumblings about a Sony Ericsson Android phone: http://www.trustedreviews.com/mobile-phones/news/2009/07/22/Sony-Ericsso...
Yes, I saw this report, but it appears to be for the UK market:
http://www.thestandard.com/news/2009/07/23/sony-ericsson-google-android-...
Ian Lamont
Managing Editor
The Industry Standard
twitter.com/the_standard
Tmobile has released the myTouch.
1 down, 3 to go.
I think Sprint is releasing at least the HTC Hero and maybe another device before Thanksgiving.
Rumors also exist about another carrier(s) picking up Motorola's multiple Android units.
And as there are few other Android phones in Europe it is likely at least 1 shows up in the US.
The other carrier won't be AT&T according to http://www.thestreet.com/story/10591263/1/att-opted-out-of-motorolas-and...
Dearest Predictors,
Are we agreed that so far we have-
1) T-Mobile myTouch currently available
2) Sprint HTC Hero to be released on October 11, 2009
3) Motorola CLIQ to be released on November 2, 2009 (preorders begin October 19)
Anyone know of a fourth Android phone which would complete the prediction criteria?
Don't know of one, but I think one of the Korean manufacturers looks likely.
Ian Lamont
Managing Editor
The Industry Standard
twitter.com/the_standard
twitter.com/ilamont
Verizon and Google will be making formal announcement on 2 Android-based phone debut very very soon.
Confirmed at least 4 Android-based phone debut (Samsung Galaxy, HTC Hero, HTC Magic and HTC Dream.
Checking now ....
Ian Lamont
Managing Editor
The Industry Standard
twitter.com/the_standard
twitter.com/ilamont
The partnership is confirmed, yes, but the devil is in the details as far as this prediction goes. As Tay noted earlier, there are three phones with confirmed availability before Thanksgiving, but we need to know when the new Verizon Android phones will be available in the U.S. (it's not clear if some of those Korean models are coming here at all -- it seems that the news relates to European releases) .
If you see any other links that can confirm a fourth Android phone by the prediction judgement day, we're in business!
Ian Lamont
Managing Editor
The Industry Standard
twitter.com/the_standard
twitter.com/ilamont
Advertisements for the Motorola Droid for Verizon have begun. The release date is not stated directly-
http://phones.verizonwireless.com/motorola/droid/
however according to PC Mag, it has been decoded as 10/30/2010-
http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2354388,00.asp
The stars are aligning for a favorable outcome.
Droid (for VZ) is all hyped for 2010 introduction so it won't contribute to this prediction.
The ad I saw wasn't clear on release. Would it make sense to hype it now, in the runup to holiday season, if people won't be able to buy it until next year? Or do you think the idea is to prevent people from buying other gadgets?
Ian Lamont
Managing Editor
The Industry Standard
twitter.com/the_standard
twitter.com/ilamont
News about launch of Samsung Behold II by T-Mobile will seal this prediction. No exact date but T-Mobile said "in times for the holidays".
See http://www.cnet.com/8301-19736_1-10367136-251.html
Re: my previous post-
"has been decoded as 10/30/2010"
should have been
"has been decoded as 10/30/2009"
Sorry for the error.
from Gizmodo: Motorola Droid Probably Going on Sale November 9th
http://gizmodo.com/5386954/motorola-droid-probably-going-on-sale-novembe...
Thanks Kuba. Interesting ...
Ian Lamont
Managing Editor
The Industry Standard
twitter.com/the_standard
twitter.com/ilamont
This prediction is going to happen.
Sprint, Tmobile and Verizon will all have android handsets and we will see more than 4 (other than the G1). Do I hear another prediction we should start ;-) ? There is no chance they will hold back for the holidays and with Apple not releasing a new phone prior to the holiday season this might be a year many people opt to get a new phone other than an iPhone.
I need to see the Cliq and the fourth device on sale by the prediction date, and it's done. It would be crazy for Verizon not to follow through quickly on the Droid ... but whether it will be an "iPhone killer" remains to be seen.
Ian Lamont
Managing Editor
The Industry Standard
twitter.com/the_standard
twitter.com/ilamont
@Ian - I was careful to not say "iPhone Killer" - and could see that being another separate prediction. But the real issue is what is the definition of "killer". I would have to answer when(if) the Android OS overtakes the iPhone OS as most popular handset OS for smartphones. (one report has that occurring in 2012)
Tangent - prior to the iPhone what was the leader in smartphones? Palm? Windows?
Back on topic:
http://now.sprint.com/android/index.php?pid=3&id12=UHP_Masthead_101109_A...
Tmobile - Cliq coming
Sprint - Samsung Moment coming
Vz - Droid coming (and 3 HTC phones?)
So the rumor has it at 6 phones - one will drop before the date of this prediction.
Motorola Droid on sale next week
Based on David's link which confirms availability before Thanksgiving, I have judged this prediction.
MyTouch and Hero (see Dave's link, above) are available now, and the Cliq has been confirmed as well.
Thanks everyone. Looks like Android is finally getting some legs!
Ian Lamont
Managing Editor
The Industry Standard
twitter.com/the_standard
twitter.com/ilamont
Phew, good thing since I dumped 90% of my momo on this back in July -- sound, logical financial decisions ftw. ;-)
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