Yahoo's forthcoming Flickr video announcement has been widely reported after a few comments Stewart Butterfield made at Sunday's birthday party.

CNET's Josh Lowensohn thinks that the service, now rumored for over a year, stands more than a fighting chance against. . .well, too many incumbants to count.

YouTube has an approximately 34% market share as of March 14, 2008, according to comScore, whereas Yahoo! video only has 3.2%. It has been reported that Flickr Video will not replace Yahoo Video, unlike Yahoo Photos, which was folded into Flickr.

This is a prediction that must meet two (i.e. both) condiitons in order to be judged favorably:

1.) Flickr video (or equivalant service regardless of name) equals or eclipses Yahoo! Video's 3.2% market share within its first 6 months of service

2.) The combined online video market share of Yahoo! sites (all offerings i.e. Flickr video + Yahoo! Video) exceeds 6.4% within 6 months of the Flickr video launch

A judgement on this prediction will be made using comScore metrics. Only if the neccessary metrics are not available via comScore wil the editors look elesewhere for the requisite numbers, in which case they will provide their sources when making the judgement. If Flickr video does not launch by May 1, as expected, then the expiration date of this prediction will be revised accordingly.