Submitted by Eric Hill09.26.2008
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This prediction is closed and has been judged.
Judgment: After the historic bail-out bill failed to pass the House today, House Minority Leader John Boehner said the chamber would not vote again on Monday. CNN reports that a new vote may (or may not) come on Thursday at the earliest. It will now be impossible for the time requirements of this prediciton to be met. Judged at S$0. -- The Industry Standard
Original prediction: While the Bush administration and lawmakers worked through the week to try and agree on the specifics for bailing out the U.S. financial system, the markets have remained unsteady. As each day passes, news headlines put global markets in a bipolar relationship with the bears and bulls.
The original goal was to see an agreement, at least in general terms, by Friday, September 26, 2008. The hope was to build a solid consensus before the NYSE’s opening bell on Monday, September 28.
What the administration can not stress enough is that bipartisan support is key, but speed to act is paramount.
Prediction: Will President George W. Bush sign the bailout package into law by the end of September?
Let the community decide. Place your bets below.
Price History
Prediction Statistics
| Betting Closes: | Sep 30 2008 | Current Consensus: | 2.19% | Total Bets: | 30 |
| Today's Change: | -30.99% | ||||
| Life Time High: | 50.00% | ||||
| Life Time Low: | 2.19% |
Comments
How likely can this be? For this to be judged favorably, the following must occur ...
1) Agreement in principal achieved at both US House of Congress and US Senate.
2) Details of the agreement are hashed out and a final legislative plan be generated for final vote at both US House of Congress and US Senate.
3) Votes to be taken and confirmed.
4) Approved bill sent to the White House
5) Prez Bush stage a very public signing of the approved bill into law.
IMO, I can only see 1-3 happening by end of September with the signing happening before end of next week (no later than October 3.
Original bill was 3 pages .. now over 102 pages and will continue to grow before a deal is reached ... just gets more and more complicated
Latest .... Senate HOPES to have agreement in principal LATE Sunday. That would only meet step #1.
'Breakthrough' reached on bailout deal
Latest based on http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26884523/
1) Agreement in principal achieved at both US House of Congress and US Senate (DONE).
2) Details of the agreement are hashed out and a final legislative plan be generated for final vote at both US House of Congress and US Senate. (Tentative 9/29 for Congress and 10/1 for Senate)
3) Votes to be taken and confirmed. (Tentative 9/29 for Congress and 10/1 for Senate)
4) Approved bill sent to the White House (no earlier than 10/1)
5) Prez Bush stage a very public signing of the approved bill into law (no earlier than 10/1)
This looks like a done deal (for UNFAVORABLE judgment). US Senate won't vote on it until October!
US Congress version of the bill can be found at http://a.abcnews.go.com/images/Business/AYO08C04_xml515pm.pdf. US Senate version will be drafted based on approved US Congress version.
From http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26933269/
Even if the bailout is passed — the House votes on Monday, and the Senate later this week
From http://abcnews.go.com/Business/Economy/story?id=5904056&page=1
Earlier the Democratic Chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, Barney Frank, said the House would "definitely" begin debate Monday on the rescue package. A House vote could follow the same day, with the Senate possibly voting by mid-week.
From http://www.reuters.com/article/americasRegulatoryNews/idUSWBT00987620080... and
http://www.forbes.com/reuters/feeds/reuters/2008/09/28/2008-09-28T180112...
U.S. Senate to vote at earliest mid-week on bailout
@David: So how much are you clearing on this one? 3mm+?
I definitely picked the wrong weekend to go away....
@Bradley, I only have a modest bet (about $700K) on this This would only net me $379K (less than a 50% return). Not bad for an ROI of 5 days though.
Sep 29 2008 Bet against at 25% odds S$199,932.61
Sep 29 2008 Bet against at 30% odds S$199,955.88
Sep 28 2008 Bet against at 45% odds S$99,989.20
Sep 27 2008 Bet against at 41% odds S$99,989.58
Sep 26 2008 Bet against at 44% odds S$99,942.84
Wished I could have put much more on this. My deductions (see Comment #1) on this prediction was almost right on the money.
As of 11am PT: 207 yeas, 226 nays. Time has expired. But, they haven't used the gavel yet. Could be hours while some arms are twisted. Right now, however, looks like it won't pass. Dow dropped -680 at one point, dropping the DJI 10,522. Incredible day.
Gavel used. 228 against 205 for. House rejected the bailout plan!. Might as well judge this now. There is no way a bailout plan be signed into law tomorrow.
And this took place after the huge Dow drop. The possibility of breaking 10,000 just went up!
Still surprises me how far just a bit of money will move the percentages here. Then again I also figured you'd done more of the 25->6% move as well.
@Bradley, nope. The 25%->6% was done courtesy of Marc Chiang. I did consider piling on but decided to let others in on the "free" ride.
Sometimes I wonder if I could keep comments to myself to prevent my analysis prejudicing others' bets. It probably resulted in opportunity loss.
Of all the top 10 gainers last month, it looks like Chris Sternal-Johnson has the lead at around 55% followed by Marc at around 44% for September. I am about S$2M shy from breaking 50%. Overall, September was a light on expiring bets.
@Bradley, I think part of what you're describing goes directly to the fact that some portfolios in this market have simply become enormous, a la Warren Buffet. One or two people can literally make, or tank, a stock in a matter of minutes.
Did you know many of the fat cats who circulate from board to board and from job to job throughout the financial industry, are also members of the Bilderberg Group and or the Trilateral Commission? When someone takes your money and steals your car, it makes an impression. When they belong to such secret political cliques, it leaves an indelible impression. Many elected officials even belong to these cabals, hence the secrecy. When Bill Clinton eased banking restrictions, he dished out $8-billion dollars for community reinvestment loans. When the financing schemes fell through, as is their wont whenever 30-million Mexican nationals buy inflated properties and default, it left banks in the lurch. Hillary Clinton counted on the loan giveaways to buy votes. Interestingly enough, had Hillary secured the nomination; she, instead of Barack Obama would preside over the bailout. So, where’s that $8-bilion plus dollars? Where’s Hillary? The Global Initiative people (code speak for car thieves) took my money; they stole my car. If you or I did half the things these people have done, we’d be serving consecutive life sentences. Wise up, get angry, and let the bubble burst. Remember, Ben Stein says you’re going to be just fine. You have my word on it too. Gentlemen, I want my money back: http://theseedsof9-11.com
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