Industry Standard Predictions

Nvidia Tegra smartphone from Samsung or Motorola by Nov. 30?

Ian Lamont — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 14:08:36 -0700

The mobile arena is one of the few bright spots in the tech economy. Last year, Intel's Atom processor was a smash hit as millions of consumers migrated to low-cost netbooks powered by the Atom. This year, all eyes are on the smartphone market, as heavyweights Apple, RIM, and Palm drive innovation with new or upgraded devices, and chipmakers work on the next generation of processors that will be able to deliver even better performance and graphics in smartphones.

One of the most eagerly anticipated mobile chips is Nvidia's Tegra. The company claims the chip will be able to deliver HD video playback, Flash acceleration, and 3D user interfaces while using very little power (see demo below). According to Nvidia, netbooks and other Tegra-equipped devices should be available in the second half of 2009.

Smartphones will reportedly be part of the Tegra product blitz. In an interview described by a columnist on TheStreet.com, Mike Rayfield, the general manager of Nvidia's mobile business unit, said he "expects the company's Tegra chip to debut in a phone from one of the top five cell-phone makers as early as the fourth quarter of this year." Rayfield declined to name the manufacturer, but TheStreet.com said unnamed experts think that Samsung or Motorola "are probably the most likely."

Prediction: A Samsung or Motorola smartphone (i.e., a mobile phone that can also be used to browse the Internet, watch video, and send email using a small QWERTY keyboard or touchscreen) powered by Nvidia's Tegra chip will be launched on or before November 30, 2009. An announcement of a future product or preorders will not suffice -- the device must be available for immediate sale to members of the public in any country or territory on or before that date. A news article, press release, or store/carrier announcement of availability will be used to judge this prediction.

Video: Nvidia's Vice President of Mobile Content Neil Trevett demonstrates a 3D user interface running on the Tegra APX 2600 development platform.

CTO compensation will decline at least 3% in 2009 salary survey?

Ian Lamont — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 13:23:15 -0700

Computerworld's annual salary survey has tracked IT compensation since the mid-1980s. Last year, chief technology officers who responded to the survey reported a modest 1.5% rise in total compensation, the second-lowest showing among the senior IT management categories.

The results could have been much worse, had the survey ended later in the year. The results were reported in November 2008, but the actual survey was conducted in May, June and July -- months before the bottom fell out of the U.S. economy.

For the 2009 salary survey, senior-level IT managers are feeling the pain. Layoffs have spread through the economy as revenues have slipped, companies shutter underperforming brands, and firms file for bankruptcy protection. IT Projects are stumbling, and the use of tech freelancers is rising as firms put off hiring full-time employees. There is a glut of talent in the job market, which puts downward pressure on salaries. Moreover, bonuses and salaries have been reduced as companies tighten their belts and attempt to ride out the recession.

Prediction: The average CTO's "total compensation" listed in the 2009 Computerworld Salary Survey will show a decline of 3% or more from 2008. This represents a drop of nearly $5,000 from $165,304 listed in 2008. Survey results will be released in November 2009.

Image: Tracy O, Flickr/creative commons license

"New Ma.gnolia" relaunches by September 20, 2009?

Ian Lamont — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 11:13:53 -0700

In late Jaunary, the bookmark-sharing website ma.gnolia suffered a "catastrophic" failure that took the service offline. The data could not be recovered. Founder Larry Halff decided to shutter the service, but according to a message left on the front page of the site, Ma.gnolia will re-open as a "by-invitation community bookmarking service" by the of the summer.

Prediction: Ma.gnolia re-opens on or before September 20, 2009. Judgment will depend on an update to the front page of the website by that date, and/or information revealed on the Ma.gnolia Twitter feed that indicates a revamped version of the service is once again available.

Google Voice opens to the public by July 22?

Ian Lamont — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 15:05:25 -0700

In mid-June, there was a flurry of speculation about the imminent public launch of Google Voice, a free service that provides call forwarding to a single number, transcribed voicemail messages, conference calls, cheap international phone service, and free national phone calls. While Google Voice has been open to a limited group of beta testers for months, the rumor of an imminent public launch turned out to be premature.

However, a Google Voice product manager named Craig walker did weigh in on the rumor via Twitter. He said the team was "cranking 24/7" to get the product out the door, but indicated it would not happen in a matter of days.

Certainly, there are many potential problems for developers to address, ranging from security concerns to architecting the service to scale to millions of users. But the fact that Google has been working on the product for years, and opened it up to beta testers months ago indicates that a wider launch can't be too far off.

Prediction: Google, which had a limited rollout of Google Voice in March, is getting close to launching the service to the wider public. This predictions states that it will be opened to the U.S. public on or before July 22, 2009. An invite-only system (similar to what was used for Gmail when it was launched) will not suffice for a favorable judgment -- it has to be easy for any U.S. resident to sign up for Google Voice and start using the service.

Google launches a real-time microblogging search service?

Ian Lamont — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 14:20:08 -0700

There's been growing speculation that Google is preparing to launch its own "microblogging search engine" to compete with Twitter's own search functionality. Much of the speculation centers on some Google code that a blogger claims to have found in June. While Google already indexes Twitter posts, it's not real-time and it is not integrated into existing products, which has prompted some users to take matters into their own hands.

The Standard has an existing prediction about Google acquiring Twitter, but market players clearly believe it won't happen -- community consensus now stands at 10%. Media reports have also cast doubt on this rumor. Might a new search product centered around Twitter and other microblogging services be a better way for Google to leverage the surging interest in this medium?

Prediction: Google launches a real-time service based on microblogging content such as Twitter on or before September 30, 2009. The service does not need to have its own branding (i.e., it can be an extension of existing products such as Google's search engine, Google News or Google Trends) but it must be made clear via some sort of official announcement or product functionality that Google is offering near real-time indexing and presentation of microblogging content.

News Corp. (NWS) shares close below $9.50 on August 14?

Ian Lamont — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 06:23:19 -0700

Rupert Murdoch's media empire may be profitable but it's shaping up to be a grim summer for News Corp., owing to uncertain revenue prospects for key properties, continuing management and staff shakeups, and a critical advertising picture.

The situation at MySpace embodies many of the challenges facing the company. In April, the company replaced several key executives as the social networking site's growth stagnated. Layoffs are rumored to be in the works, and there is also concern over the coming expiration of a large ad deal with Google.

Traditional media properties are also under pressure at News Corp. and elsewhere. The newspaper advertising market is "horrible," say experts, and newspapers' online ad revenue has declined sharply. Television advertising, another important revenue generator for News Corp., is also faltering. News Corp.'s television unit reported FY 2009 third quarter operating income of just $4 million, a decline
of $415 million versus the same period in 2008, "due to decreased operating results at
the Fox Television Stations, FOX Broadcasting Company and STAR." The company blamed weak financial, auto, and movie advertising trends. At least one of those trends is likely to continue, as the nation's auto industry is restructured and thousands of dealerships close their doors. Consumer spending, which drives many ad campaigns, has contracted since last year, and will likely remain down as the economy remains in a recession and millions of people remain out of work. Mudoch himself acknowledges that the national unemployment rate is likely to rise to 11%.

There are some bright spots for News Corp., however. Murdoch claims its movie business is doing well, and one analyst believes that the negative perception of several News Corp. businesses are "unjustified," considering the company's positive cash flow projections.

Prediction: News Corp. class B shares (NWS) will close below $9.50 on August 14, 2009, owing in part to continued weakness in the global advertising market and uncertainty over several important properties, including MySpace.

Image: Rupert Murdoch in Davos, Switzerland, earlier this year (flickr/World Economic Forum, creative commons license)

Video game software sales for July decline at least 20%?

Ian Lamont — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 11:13:05 -0700

NPD's latest monthly figures for the U.S. video game industry have revealed some alarming trends, as sales for hardware, software and accessories plummeted double-digit percentage rates from the same month last year.

According to NPD's estimates for May, sales of video game software declined to $449 million, compared to $540 million in May 2008 -- a drop of 17%. Accessories declined 25%, and video game hardware declined 30%, although the portable hardware category showed strong sales thanks to Nintendo's newer DSi and DS Lite models.

Clearly, the theory that video games are a cheap form of entertainment and are thus relatively shielded from the recession is being tested in the current economic environment. While NPD noted that some new titles are coming out in June, including a new Sims title, Tiger Woods and Transformers, it's far from certain that they will be enough to stop the downward slide in gaming software sales, especially as people put off buying the hardware necessary to play new titles.

Prediction: July 2008 game software sales for the U.S. market were $591.1 million, a rise of 41 percent over the previous year, according to NPD. This prediction states that July 2009 game software sales will be $473 million or lower, representing a drop of at least 20%. NPD figures for July (which will probably be released in early or mid August) will be used to judge the prediction.

DOJ indicates antitrust lawsuit over Google books deal?

Ian Lamont — Thu, 11 Jun 2009 06:26:08 -0700

The U.S. Justice Department has turned up the heat on Google's Book Search settlement with authors and publishers over antitrust concerns. In early June, the DOJ sent civil investigative demands to the parties involved. Now observers are waiting to see if the DOJ will file a suit against Google -- or use the threat of one to get Google and the other participants to rework the settlement.

The case dates to 2005, when the Authors Guild and the Association of American Publishers accused Google of massive copyright violations for not seeking permission from rights owners to scan and index books as part of Google's program to digitize university book collections. The groups sued Google. Last October, Google announced a settlement to end the lawsuits in which it agreed to pay $125 million and legal fees, establish a book rights registry, and pay royalties to authors and publishers, in return for Google providing online access to titles and a way for institutions to buy subscriptions. The settlement has yet to be approved by the court.

Critics say the settlement gives too much power to Google, and also question the control of "orphan works", or books that are under copyright but whose owners can't be located.

Prediction: On or before September 15, 2009, the U.S. Department of Justice threatens to file, or files an antitrust lawsuit that names Google. The lawsuit must involve Google Book Search in the context of antitrust statutes, and the news must be made public. Either the DOJ, Google, or one of Google's partners in the settlement must confirm the lawsuit or threat of a lawsuit before September 15. If the DOJ indicates to Google that it will file a lawsuit before this date, but the news is not revealed until after, the judgment will rendered negative.

NetApp prevails in bidding war with EMC over Data Domain?

Ian Lamont — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 07:28:54 -0700

Following last month's announcement that NetApp would buy backup storage vendor Data Domain (NASDAQ:DDUP) for $1.5 billion in cash and stock, a bidding war has broken out with NetApp rival EMC Corporation (NYSE: EMC).

EMC's surprise, all-cash offer of $1.8 billion forced NetApp to increase its bid to $1.9 billion. While Data Domain's board accepted the revised NetApp offer, EMC is not giving up. EMC Chairman and CEO Joe Tucci sent a "love letter" addressed directly to Data Domain's employees, which claims that it has the largest storage-focused R&D budget "in all of IT" and pledges that EMC would respect Data Domain's corporate culture if it acquired the company. Some Data Domain shareholders are also objecting to the NetApp deal, alleging "breaches of fiduciary duty and other violations of state law" on the part of Data Domain's board.

But there are also questions about EMC's motives in making a hostile bid. NetApp's Chief Marketing Officer believes that Data Domain's product lines and markets are more complimentary to NetApp than EMC, and suggested that EMC was making an offer "just to impede our progress." At least one analystconcurs, noting that EMC already has de-duplication technology that a Data Domain acquisition would bring.

According to a June 4 article, the NetApp and Data Domain deal will take 60 to 110 days to close, "subject to customary closing conditions including regulatory approval."

Prediction: NetApp's proposed acquisition of Data Domain closes by September 15, 2009. The criteria for judgment includes a confirmation from one or both of the companies in the form of a press release or a press report that the deal has closed by this date. An SEC filing that describes an expected closing date will not suffice for judgment.

Oracle announces definite plans to get into the netbook/mobile Internet device market?

Ian Lamont — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 14:32:19 -0700

The technology industry was taken by surprise earlier this week, when Oracle CEO Larry Ellison made some unexpected comments about his company's hardware plans. As described by one source,

... Ellison broadly hinted that Oracle would get into the consumer electronics business, offering netbook-like machines that would compete with the Acers, HPs, Dells, and Lenovos of the world.

Another source reported Ellison making the following remark:

"I can see lots and lots of Java devices, some coming from our friends at Google," said Ellison. "But I don't see why some of those devices shouldn't come from Sun/Oracle."

Ellison did not give any details, and many observers did not take the comments seriously considering Oracle's historical roots as a provider of enterprise software.

Nevertheless, there are several factors that would make Oracle consider a move into the consumer hardware arena, including Oracle's planned acquisition of Sun Microsystems, which brings new hardware and software skills and technologies into the Oracle fold. Ellison clearly sees huge potential in Java -- at his speech to the JavaOne attendees in San Francisco on Tuesday, he pledged to develop Java applications for phones and netbooks, saying "There will be computers fundamentally based on Java and JavaFX, not only from Google but also from Sun."

Prediction: On or before December 31, 2009, Oracle will announce plans to develop a mobile Internet device similar to a netbook (i.e., a keyboard and screen no larger than 12.1 inches, and a processor with roughly the same power and processing speeds found in Intel's Atom family), or a platform for such devices that combines an operating system and SDK along the lines of Google Android or Intel Moblin that is not a next-generation version of Java ME. The criteria for this prediction coming true are an Oracle press release or named Oracle employee quoted in the press stating that Oracle has definite plans to develop such a device and/or platform.

Image: Larry Ellison, 2005 (Eddie Awad/Flickr, creative commons license)

Dell announces intention to acquire or merge with Palm or Acer in 2009?

Ian Lamont — Fri, 29 May 2009 13:46:18 -0700

Even though Dell had a tough first quarter, it is sitting on nearly $10 billion in cash and equivalents and is "looking for opportunities" to expand its business through acquisitions, according to a Dell executive.

The executive quoted in the IDG News Service article is Steve Felice, president of the company's small and medium business unit. Felice refused to name the companies under consideration, but the article said unnamed observers believe that Palm or Acer are potential targets.

Michael Dell recently said that his company is interested in "smaller-screen devices", which could mean smartphones or some other sort of mobile device. Palm is getting ready to launch its new smartphone, the heavily hyped Palm Pre, and Acer has a strong netbook line as well as a huge footprint in the PC market.

Prediction: Dell announces its intention to acquire or merge with Palm or Acer on or before December 31, 2009. The acquisition/merger does not need to go through by that date, and indeed may be derailed by regulators or some other unforseen factor. However, Dell or one of the companies involved needs to make a public announcement about its intention to take part in a merger or acquisition, in the form of a news release or statement to the press by the end of the year.

Image: Dell Studio 15 laptop (Dell.com)

Four new U.S. Android mobile phone models available by Thanksgiving?

Ian Lamont — Thu, 28 May 2009 12:20:35 -0700

While the smartphone market sizzles with new products and platform updates from Palm, BlackBerry, and Apple, there is also interest in Google's Android platform. However, there have been few actual Android phones to date.

That may change this year. Andy Rubin, senior director for Mobile Platforms for Google, told the New York Times that the company believes there will be between 18 and 20 phones worldwide using the Android operating system by year's end. He did not identify carriers or manufacturers.

This leads to the question of how many will be available to consumers in the United States. The New York Times blog post said Rubin believes carriers will be slower to adopt Android in the United States owing to a desire to design more distinctive phones, but it did not say how many phones he thinks will be released for the U.S. market out of the 18-20 total.

Rumors and reports indicate that a handful of carriers and manufacturers have plans for Android releases, including T-Mobile (the G2/Magic, see video below) and Samsung but there are no confirmed release dates as of this writing.

Prediction: By Thanksgiving 2009 (which falls on November 26 this year), there will be four new Android mobile phone models available to U.S. customers. The phones must be distinct models, as opposed to variations of the same phone or an update of T-Mobile's G1 phone. In addition, they must be available to buy or get as part of an existing carrier contract by Thanksgiving 2009, as opposed to announcements or presale availability.

Video: A Vodafone Android G2 demo model (Source: Gizmodo)

Android G2: HTC Magic Hands ON from Gizmodo on Vimeo.

Yahoo announces a major social networking service, acquisition, or partnership by December 1?

Ian Lamont — Wed, 27 May 2009 14:47:54 -0700

This year's All Things Digital conference featured a fascinating on-stage interview of Yahoo CEO Carol Bartz by Kara Swisher. Besides delving into Bartz's short history at the company, the talk also covered some potential strategic moves. According to AllThingsD's account, Bartz said Yahoo was "very interested in social."

Of course, this is not the first time Yahoo has talked about big social networking plans. But what makes this different is Bartz's drive to execute quickly and decisively on reforming the company, and her stated desire to turn Yahoo into users' "home on the Web."

Prediction: Before December 1, Yahoo will announce plans to create a new social networking service, acquire an external social network, or partner with another social networking company. Criteria: The service will not be an expansion of Yahoo 360 -- it will be branded differently. The service must also be targeted at Yahoo's entire U.S. userbase (and possibly international users, too) not just a subset of users, such as business users. There must be an official announcement from Yahoo or another company involved with the product, or it must be revealed by a named Yahoo executive in a media interview or article.

Image: Yahoo

Twitter-based TV program details announced by October 1?

Ian Lamont — Tue, 26 May 2009 13:34:38 -0700

An article in the Hollywood trade publication Variety has revealed a new partnership to make Twitter -- one of the hottest Internet media phenomenons -- the focus of an "unscripted TV skein."

Reveille and Brillstein Entertainment are behind the deal, which Twitter co-founder Biz Stone calls "a lightweight, non-exclusive, agreement." The show is further described in the Variety article as "putting ordinary people on the trail of celebrities in a revolutionary competitive format."

While the concept and executive producers have apparently been worked out, other details are notably lacking -- such as what the show will be called, where it will be shown, and when it will air. But pressure will be on to reveal some of these details soon, before the Twitter buzz fades.

Prediction: The producers of the Twitter-based television program will reveal the general start date (i.e., month or season) and channel on which it will be shown by October 1, 2009. The announcement must come from the producers, the cable or broadcast television channel (or Internet site), or Twitter, or be made by a named executive at one of these organizations and quoted by a media outlet. However, the name may not be revealed in the announcement.

An iPod touch with a camera?

Ian Lamont — Fri, 15 May 2009 15:01:46 -0700

There have been a lot of discussions about hardware improvements for the next-generation iPhone, but what about the iPod touch?

An increase in capacity is one obvious area for improvement, but a French source (described on AppleInsider) brings up another intriguing possibility: A camera for the iPod touch.

It's a natural fit. The iPod touch has a great photo viewing application, and the ability to use email or the Facebook app to share photos would be a huge hit. The rumored September release date makes sense, too -- that's when millions of students are getting ready to return to school with new gadgets to show off to friends.

Prediction: Apple will release a new iPod touch with a camera (still or video) by September 15, 2009. An announcement before September will be accepted, but Apple has to be specific about the date in the announcement.

The iPhone's AT&T exclusivity extended to 2011?

David Kuan — Thu, 07 May 2009 15:35:58 -0700

AT&T's exclusive deal to be the carrier for the iPhone in the United States has been a boon to the company. In the second half of 2008, AT&T gained more than four million new iPhone subscribers.

But the exclusive deal is reported to end in 2010, according to "people familiar with the matter." If AT&T wants to keep its grip on the next-generation versions of this revolutionary device, it needs to convince Apple to extend the exclusivity arrangement.

It's going to be tough -- Apple wants to get its products in the hands of more people, and many customers are too loyal to another carrier, unable to get good AT&T coverage, or wary of AT&T's reputation. There has been a lot of interest in our prediction about a Verizon iPhone being announced by the end of June 2009, as well as an earlier prediction around MacWorld 2009.

On the other hand, AT&T has shown it will go out of its way to work with Apple's demands on the iPhone. The latest rumor: AT&T will drop the monthly service plan price by $10 when a new iPhone model is reportedly released next month. Another potential reason for Apple to agree to extend its exclusivity deal with AT&T is the cost associated with developing and rolling out an iPhone that works on other carriers' networks (see discussion here and here).

Apple would also have an incentive to announce such an extension soon rather than later: Too many potential customers are waiting on the sidelines, hoping that Apple will open up to other carriers such as Verizon. By making it clear that AT&T is the exclusive iPhone partner for longer, there will be a strong incentive for the holdouts to come in from the cold.

PREDICTION: Reports say that AT&T is in talks with Apple to extend its exclusivity agreement for iPhone from 2010 to 2011. The key criteria for this prediction is that a formal announcement by AT&T and/or Apple will be made that states AT&T's iPhone exclusivity has been extended to some point in the year 2011. For favorable judgment, the announcement must be made by the end of August 2009.

Note that an announcement of an expiry date in 2011 will not count as a favorable criteria unless it is made clear that this date is an extension of the original expiry date of the exclusivity arrangement.

Amazon lowers price of Kindle DX by at least 20% by October 31?

Ian Lamont — Wed, 06 May 2009 13:24:34 -0700

Amazon's new large-screen Kindle e-reader, the Kindle DX, has a problem: At nearly $500, it's an expensive platform for reading magazines, newspapers, and textbooks.

Concerns about price have been addressed by several early newspaper and educational partners. Some newspaper readers will be able to get a discounted price for the Kindle DX when it goes on sale this summer, but only through long-term subscription programs that are described as "pilots" in the Amazon announcement. Another "trial" is being set up at a handful of American universities to put Kindle DXs in the hands of students, but officials from Pace and Case Western who were quoted in the New York Times said only 40 or 50 students would get the devices, and they wouldn't have to pay anything for them (the schools and Amazon would cover the costs, according to the article).

That leaves the question how many members of the public at large will be willing to pay $489 out of pocket for the Kindle DX. The smaller Kindle is a hit (currently listed as the number 1 bestselling item in Amazon electronics), but at a list price of $359 it's much cheaper than the DX. According to one informal survey, the Kindle appeals to older customers, who likely have more disposable income than the average college student.

Pricing is a tricky business for gadget manufacturers. Even in good times, manufacturers sometimes discover they have priced an item too expensive. Apple found this out the hard way when it set the initial version of the iPhone at $599, and then abruptly cut the price by 1/3 in September 2007, just a few months after launch. In a sustained recession, consumers will be even more sensitive to price.

Prediction: Amazon will announce it is dropping the list price of its Kindle DX reader by at least 20% (i.e., $392 or less) by October 31, 2009. By this time, the company will have several months of sales data and will have time to gauge its reception on college campuses. It will also be preparing for the all-important 2009 holiday shopping season, as well as the start of spring semester classes in January 2010. Another pressure point: Large-screen e-reader competition from Plastic Logic (whose device is expected in early January, 2010) and potentially even an Apple e-reader.

This prediction is for an announcement of a Kindle DX price cut by October 31, 2009. The actual change in price for consumers may come at a later date.

Mobile spam act signed into law?

David Kuan — Fri, 01 May 2009 08:32:44 -0700

The FCC adopted rules to prohibit unsolicited commercial e-mail messages to wireless devices in the 2003 CAN-SPAM Act. However, the ban does not cover SMS messages.

Now, a new act has been proposed. The "Stop M-Spam Abuse as a Sales industry Habit Act of 2008" (H.R. 5769, also known as the SMASH Act of 2008) would require the Federal Trade Commission to "issue regulations to revise the Telemarketing Sales Rule to explicitly prohibit, as an abusive telemarketing act or practice, the sending of any electronic commercial message containing an unsolicited advertisement to a telephone number that is assigned to a commercial mobile service and listed on the FTC's do-not-call registry."

The act already has some early bipartisan support and the Obama administration has shown its willingness to quickly target commercial practices which hurt consumers, such as its call to reform the credit card industry. On the other hand, marketers and the telecommunications industry may push back against any regulation of SMS messaging, and may enlist sympathetic members of Congress to scuttle the bill, water down its provision, or delay its enactment.

Prediction: The SMASH Act will be passed by both houses of Congress and signed into law by October 31, 2009. The language will eliminate or severely restrict the ability of marketers to send unsolicited commercial SMS or text messages to mobile phones. However, some limited exceptions -- such as messages from companies that have existing relationships with consumers or nonprofit organizations -- may be written into the bill.

Image: Amazon.com

TechCrunch announces its touchscreen tablet available by the end of October?

David Kuan — Fri, 24 Apr 2009 12:57:05 -0700

TechCrunch has been teasing readers with pictures and video of a prototype touchscreen Web tablet (also known as the "CrunchPad" or "Crunch Tablet") for several months. The most recent photos, released in April, show a slim, Atom-powered device that has an on-screen keyboard and even packaging.

The CrunchGear post brags that "it's real and it's spectacular," but a new hardware launch in a market crowded with sub-$400 netbooks, iPod touches, and the Kindle 2 will be a challenge. Manufacturing, distribution, and sales all have to be worked out before launch can occur.

PREDICTION: TechCrunch will formally announce by the end of October 2009 the launch of a tablet computer. This is just an announcement; the actual product launch can take place after October 31.

Image: CrunchGear

Former HP CEO Carly Fiorina formally announces run for U.S. Senate?

David Kuan — Thu, 23 Apr 2009 10:07:11 -0700

Former HP CEO Carly Fiorina has made waves in recent years, not only as a female technology leader, but also for stumping for Republican John McCain in the 2008 presidential campaign. Now her political aspirations are aiming much higher. Fiorina has said that she is "seriously considering a race in California". All indications are pointing to a run against Democrat Barbara Boxer, the incumbent California senator, in the 2010 election.

Other California politicians have also been discussed as potential opponents to Boxer -- most notably Republican Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, who is running up against term limits for his current post -- but Fiorina's business experience might shine more brightly, compared to local politicians who were burned in recent budget fights in Sacramento.

Prediction: Carly Fiorina formally announces a run for the California Senate by the end of 2009.

Image: CarlyFiorina.com

Dell announces a smartphone in 2009?

David Kuan — Tue, 21 Apr 2009 14:16:27 -0700

Recently, Michael Dell alluded to potential plans for Dell to add smartphones to its product portfolio. "It is true that we are exploring smaller screen devices," he told reporters in Tokyo. "We don't have any announcements to share today but stay tuned as when we have new news we will share that with you."

However, there are many who are skeptical about a Dell smartphone. Besides the strong competition from RIM's resurgent BlackBerry line and Apple's game-changing iPhone, carriers may also lack interest in a Dell smartphone.

Regardless, Dell has a huge marketing, manufacturing, and distribution footprint, not to mention existing relationships in the tech industry which it could leverage for such a launch.

Prediction: Dell will announce a smartphone by the end of 2009. An official announcement from Dell -- either posted on its website, or a quote from a company executive in the mainstream media or trade press -- is required for a favorable judgment. The definition of "smartphone" is a mobile phone that can also perform email and other more advanced applications, such as Web browsing.

Facebook files for IPO by end of 2009?

David Kuan — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 21:42:58 -0700

Facebook chief financial officer Gideon Yu is leaving the company, a move that signals the company is positioning itself to go public.

The social networking site, which recently passed the 200 million user mark, reported that it is on track to increase revenues by 70 percent this year. Could an IPO be around the corner?

Prediction: Facebook files for IPO by the end of 2009.

Image: Marcopako/Flickr

Google Chrome browser reaches 2% market share?

Yi-Wyn Yen — Thu, 19 Mar 2009 11:07:24 -0700

Google quietly rolled out a new beta version of Chrome, just two days before Microsoft launched Internet Explorer 8.

Since Google's entry into the web browser market last September, Chrome's share has not budged higher than 1.3%, according to NetApps Market Share. Google has been aggressively marketing Chrome by blasting web ads and launching a blog dedicted to the new browser.

Prediction: Google Chrome hits a 2% market share by August 1, 2009. NetApps Market Share will be used to judge this prediction.

President Obama introduces second stimulus package?

Yi-Wyn Yen — Mon, 16 Mar 2009 12:06:12 -0700

President Barack Obama is concerned that public sentiment is souring on bailouts for financial institutions. The latest outrage centers on $175 million of U.S. taxpayers' money spent on bonuses for American International Group executives. AIG received a $170 billion bailout from the federal government.

Obama has signaled that another bailout on top of the $789 billion stimulus package appoved in February will be necessary to stabilize the U.S. banking system. But the backlash against Wall Street may make it increasingly difficult for Obama to win over public approval and Congress.

Prediction: President Barack Obama introduces a second stimulus package by October 1, 2009.

Image: AP Photo/Gerald Herbert

Apple launches a netbook in '09?

Yi-Wyn Yen — Wed, 11 Mar 2009 10:16:49 -0700

Apple is working on its next big thing. What's not clear is what Apple is developing. Some speculate that Apple is getting into the growing netbook segment based on a tip that Taiwanese manufacturer Wintek is supplying touch panels for the Cupertino-based company. A netbook is a scaled-down version of a laptop.

Others suggest that Apple is making a super-sized version of its iPod Touch with a bigger screen to watch movies, play videogames, and read e-books on.

Prediction: Apple unveils a new netbook in 2009. An announcement from Apple by Dec. 31, 2009 that the company will sell netbooks will be sufficient for a favorable judgment. Apple does not have to sell netbooks in '09 for a favorable ruling. The product must be formally categorized as a netbook.

Image: Simon Varwell/Flickr