Submitted by David Kuan11.11.2008
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This prediction is closed and has been judged.
When Ebay initially purchased Skype for $2.5B, it had the grandiose plan of integrating its capabilities into its online auction business to faciliate buyer/seller communication.
It was generally perceived at that time that Ebay had overpaid in the Skype acquisition by a long shot. Now, it appears, Ebay should "auction" off Skype and right it's sagging business.
PREDICTION: A favorable judgment can only be made if any of the following occurs by the end of June 2009:
- Ebay formalizes its intention by announcing its plan to sell of Skype (brand and/or assets)
- Ebay announces sale of Skype (brand and/or assets)
- Ebay spins off Skype
Place your bets below (Photo: liewcf)
Price History
Prediction Statistics
| Betting Closes: | Jun 30 2009 | Current Consensus: | 6.30% | Total Bets: | 41 |
| Today's Change: | 0% | ||||
| Life Time High: | 48.75% | ||||
| Life Time Low: | 6.30% |
Comments
@TIS, please change the bet closing date to June 30, 2009.
Got it, thanks!
@Eric, if you could fix the year (2009 instead of 2010) as well, that would be great :)
GigaOm speculates that a spinout/sale opp for Skype has passed:
http://gigaom.com/2009/01/21/skype-shows-signs-of-slowing-growth/
@Garrick, not according to eBay Q4 2008 earnings conference call Q&A:
Perhaps eBay is considering spinning off its profitable businesses as its core business ‘matures’:
Q: Considering the trend of your depiction for '09, is there a point where a more drastic measure, I'm not talking necessarily just about a spinoff with PayPal, but, just a recap of the whole business, I mean, the alternative formats business is doing great. PayPal seems to be doing very well. The core business seems to be now maturing. Is there a point where a recap kind of becomes to be a “must” if shareholders are to make money in the stock?
A: PayPal continues to move towards ubiquity on the web through increased penetration on eBay, and an increasingly expanded footprint beyond eBay. PayPal extended its international presence with 45% of revenues coming from outside the US. In key operating metrics, global active PayPal accounts grew to 70 million, an increase of 23%.
Skype is a great standalone business… A year ago… I was uncertain of the synergies between Skype and the other parts of our portfolio, and certainly today, I still think it's a great stand alone business… Skype-to-Skype minutes last Q4 were growing at 26%, today they are growing at 72%, primarily because more and more users are adopting this [free] product in tough economic times... SkypeOut minutes have gone from 7% last Q4 to 61% growth this Q4, and that said, it's a $600 million run rate with 20% margin.
I think we are now confident that the synergies between Skype and the other parts of our portfolio are minimal. So, we are going to continue to run and operate the business. It's not a distraction currently and at such time when we have further announcement to that, we'll let you know.
That said, it does sound like it is a possibility for a spinoff given minimal synergy.
Translation: So if anyone is interested in buying Skype for a reasonable price, please email me at JDonahoe@ebay.com or skype me at johnnyd2005!!
More rumblings today:
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/technolo...
Doesn't sound like Google is going to buy Skype. But eBay is still interested in selling the Internet telephony service. Cisco perhaps?
Ebay announced plans to spin-off Ebay via IPO in 2010. Can an UNFAVORABLE judgment be made now (since it missed the judgment date)? Or will a buyer offer a more attractive offer by closing date?
@Resveratrol, as the prediction was originally stated, it was intended to exclude spin-off announcement. Note that despite the recent announcement (which was apparently based on decision made immediately after acquisition). Should a more attractive "exit" becomes available (e.g. ex-Founders offers enough $ to buy back), EBay still retains the rights to change its mind on spin-off.
Judged. No announced spinoff or sale, and plans to do a Skype IPO are under threat:
http://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/stories/2009/06/29/daily27.html
Ian Lamont
Managing Editor
The Industry Standard
twitter.com/the_standard
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