Prediction judgment: The official press release from Entertainment Software Association (ESA) has been issued, making this prediction true. "The 2009 Electronic Entertainment Expo (E3) will take place from June 2-4, 2009..." The community was correct. Judged at 100% -- The Industry Standard
Original prediction: E3 is not what it used to be.
The change in size, format and visibility has made E3 a lackluster event. Several companies have decided to skip the event altogether, and others have voiced their disappointment with the current format.
Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter issued a statement in July echoing sentiments from EA’s John Riccitiello, Ubisoft’s Alain Corre and Acclaim’s Dave Perry in saying that E3 is, well, dead.
“In our view, E3 is headed for extinction, unless the publishers and console manufacturers wake up to the fact that nobody cares about the show anymore,” said Pachter.
The prediction is for E3 to be modified heavily or cease altogether in 2009.
An official announcement that qualifies the format change or cancellation prior to end of March 2009 is needed for favorable judgement. Qualified format changes must include at least one of the following:
1) Change date of event back to Spring (between March 1 - June 15)
2) Attendance size to accommodate at least 10K attendees.
Lack of an official announcement by end of March 2009 will render an unfavorable judgement.
| Betting Closes: | Feb 27 2009 | Current Consensus: | 97.07% | Total Bets: | 27 |
| Today's Change: | 5.39% | ||||
| Life Time High: | 97.07% | ||||
| Life Time Low: | 50.00% |
Comments
I'll finance it!
http://fakesteveballmer.blogspot.com
Penny Arcade Expo (PAX) just hauled over 58K attendees. A proposal has now been submitted to ESA to open E3 to the public (which would most likely satisfy criteria 2). There are also indications from developers to potentially skip E3 altogether and participate in PAX instead. There are now more pressure for ESA to do something different for E3 or discontinue E3 to just focus on "E for All".
http://news.bigdownload.com/2008/09/03/will-e3-2009-be-open-to-the-publi...
http://www.planetxbox360.com/article_4548/Will_the_Penny_Arcade_Expo_Rep...
E3 2009 to be held on June 2-6 and opened to public with attendance of up to 40K
http://www.thestandard.com/news/2008/10/20/video-game-industry-revamps-i... and http://blog.newsweek.com/blogs/levelup/archive/2008/10/20/scoop-expanded...
FYI, the ESA has not yet released their statement confirming this. Newsweek Update: "Post a story, and all of a sudden, more sources jump out of the woodwork, to say nothing of similar stories from competing outlets. We've spoken with four additional sources since our original post went live, and it appears that our original source's statement that there would be an extra two days specifically set aside for the public--Friday June 5th and Saturday June 6th--may have been incorrect. We're working to pin that down, and as soon as we find out, we'll whip up another post. Separately, we're also looking to gather information about what criteria the ESA will use to admit a broader audience than it has to the previous two E3s, and to find out--as one journalist asked us privately and as many fanboys would like to know--whether the infamous booth babes of years past will make a comeback of their own. Stay tuned."
As long as the first week of June date remains accurate, it is sufficient for a favorable judgment.
ESA has an official press release (http://www.theesa.com/newsroom/release_detail.asp?releaseID=38)
Washington, DC – October 22, 2008 – The 2009 Electronic Entertainment Expo (E3) will take place from June 2-4, 2009, at the Los Angeles Convention Center (LACC), the Entertainment Software Association (ESA) announced today. The expanded E3 will welcome all qualified computer and video game industry audiences, including international and U.S.-based media, analysts, retailers, developers and business partners to preview the latest in interactive entertainment and technology.
“Video games are the fastest growing and most compelling sector of the entertainment industry. And, this upgraded event will reflect the growth, innovation and excitement of our industry,” said Michael D. Gallagher, CEO of the ESA, which represents US computer and video game publishers and organizes the annual event. “The breadth, scope and quality of the changes made to the show will make E3 the must-attend event of the year.”
“The E3 Expo will be the pre-eminent North American gaming show next year. The new, larger event is better for industry leaders and for serious gamers,” commented John Riccitiello, CEO of Electronic Arts.
After conducting both qualitative and quantitative research, ESA officials stated changes were necessary to better meet the needs of both exhibitors and attendees— these changes include increased booth sizes, increased qualified audiences, and an intensified focus on reinforcing the high-octane growth, innovation, and captivating entertainment that are driving the computer and video game industry.
“The video game business will be twice as big in 2009 as it was in 2006 when we had the last real E3 Expo - so get ready for some fireworks!” said Laurent Detoc, president of Ubisoft North America. “The changes made will ensure that the 2009 E3 Expo conveys the best of what makes us proud as entertainment leaders.”
ESA also said IDG World Expo, whose principals have operated E3 since its inception in 1995, will produce the event with the ESA.
The event will be open to ESA members and non-members alike. Organizers noted they are expanding the list of companies eligible to participate. Companies involved in console, PC, online, and mobile game publishing and developing, qualified business partners, as well as makers of video game hardware and peripherals can exhibit.
Additional details, including registration, hotel and travel accommodations, and media credentialing, will be forthcoming in the next few weeks and will be available at www.e3expo.com.
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