Submitted by Bradley Baker05.30.2008
Thunderdome
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This prediction is closed and has been judged.
Judgment on July 2, 2008:
The record is official, which the community correctly predicted. Paid out at S$100. --The Industry Standard
Original Prediction:
This is a prediction that Mozilla and Firefox 3 will be successful in their attempt to get a Guinness World Record set for the most downloads in one 24-hour period.
For this prediction to be judged a success two criteria must be met:
* Guinness must accept the attempt as an official Guinness World Record
* At least 3 million downloads of Firefox 3 must take place during "Download Day"
This prediction will close on "Download Day" and be judged approximately a week later when the results of the Guinness World Record attempt are made public.
From Mozilla's FAQ:
What is Download Day? Download Day is our attempt to set a world record for the most software downloads in 24 hours and will occur on Firefox 3 launch day.
When will we find out if we’ve officially set the record? This will take approximately a week after our attempt date. Our judges and Guinness World Records™ need to review our download logs and validate our record attempt.
Do we have to reach a specific number of downloads in order to set the record? This is the first record attempt of its kind so there is no set number. We'd really like to outdo the number of Firefox 2 downloads on its launch day, which was 1.6 million. Let's shoot for 5 million--the sky is the limit!
Will I be able to find this record on the Guinness website or in the printed version of the book? We hope so! Guinness World Records™ receives many record attempt requests and can't accommodate everyone. Let's catch their eye by working to make this a spectacular record with millions of downloads and great, zany Download Fests.
(Ed. Note: The prediction close date was adjusted due to Mozilla's announcemnt that Download Day is June 17, 2008.)
Price History
Prediction Statistics
| Betting Closes: | Jun 17 2008 | Current Consensus: | 64.57% | Total Bets: | 47 |
| Today's Change: | 0% | ||||
| Life Time High: | 81.76% | ||||
| Life Time Low: | 45.02% |
Comments
Need to adjust the closing date to June 17th.
What if it sets the record, but with less than 3 million downloads?
@Shiv, it is clearly stated that BOTH criteria must be met for a favorable judgement.
Oops, I had misread it as Guiness accepts this an attempt to set a record..
If Mozilla keeps backfiring, this could get really interesting. 32 minutes into Download Day and I'm still getting directed to FF2. ?!? From Kevin Railsback, "All they need is a simple page, all cached, with a link to an Akamai download URL that will geoload it all." I expected slow response times, but not an all out fail.
FF2 had 1.6 million in its opening day in 2006. The market share of Firefox has grown since then. This lack of service that Eric Hill mentioned equated the dedication Firefox users have to the product. I would wager as a side bet that it will have 3 million by 7pm EST.
@Michael, I agree with Eric that a sign of Firefox users dedication would be a slow response time due increase download activity. What we are seeing is a failure to even connect to Mozilla which does not bode well to the Guiness Record attempt (unless the starting time is clocked when successful download is first registered).
I just downloaded it as of 12:03pm PT. Turns out we had the closing date dialed nearly to the second! I bow down.
Mozilla announced on their blog that they will be clocking the record from the time that downloading began, not at 10 AM PST.
Wow - I don't know about the rest of you, but FF3 is super, super fast. I'm not exaggerating. Wow!
I was thinking about "record" part of this. Couldn't Microsoft say they had x amount of users download SP2 or SP3. Or even the Tuesday patches.
At any rate spreadfirefox say 1,721,682 downloads as of this post.
I still see Download pointing to version 2? Spreadfirefox site also shows 579137807 downloaded? Thats over 579 million? Weird!
You can get the official count at http://www.spreadfirefox.com/en-US/worldrecord
It seems to be around 1.2 million at the moment, with an average of 12k downloads per minute.
Total Downloads: 3,000,072 and growing...
it's halfway thru download day and they've already passed the mark, up to 3,909,302... almost at 4. ...That's just rad.
Current Downloads is 4,861,313 it will touch around 6 Million soon. Hope we could find word firefox in genius books of records.
FireFOx! A Better Browser
The first part of this prediction has but fulfilled at 12:58 PDT, with 5 million total downloads worldwide.
At the time of this comment, Iran has surpassed China, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Poland, and Russia (among others); with Iran count of 178,728 and China count of 127,526. That's quite interesting.
The real interesting part is the fire-fox hating Greenland crowd. 87?! really? New Caldonia had more than you!
7,554,307
How long does it take to verify server logs? ??
I figured that $ will be frozen on this bet for a while in order to validate server logs as well as getting the nod from Guiness Record. Decided to cash in my winnings :)
Mozilla is reporting that confirmation has been received from Guinness for 8,002,530 people.
http://blog.mozilla.com/blog/2008/07/02/were-official/
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