Submitted by Eric Hill10.08.2008
Thunderdome
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This prediction is closed and has been judged.
Judgment: Tragically, this prediction came true today. At this writing, intraday trading on the Dow hit 8,969.22 -288.88 -3.12%. Judged at 100%.
Original prediction: Despite having passed the recent bailout/rescue plan, and the Fed ordering an emergency rate cut by a half point, the US and world markets are still incredibly volatile.
As of this writing, the Dow is down -188.45 at 9,258.66. In the last 30 days, the Dow has shed more than 2,000 points.
Prediction: Will the Dow drop below 9,000 during intraday trading between now and October 31, 2008? It does not need to close under 9,000, but merely go below 9,000. After hours trading will not be considered for judgment.
Let the community decide. Place your bets below.
Price History
Prediction Statistics
| Betting Closes: | Oct 31 2008 | Current Consensus: | 95.69% | Total Bets: | 28 |
| Today's Change: | 33.44% | ||||
| Life Time High: | 95.69% | ||||
| Life Time Low: | 50.00% |
Comments
What a rollercoaster day. An early crash followed by attempt to recover until the very last minute, a complete collapse.
The prediction is framed as "Will the Dow drop below 9,000 during intraday trading between now and September 31, 2008?" Perhaps the date should be October 31, 2008.
@Tay, thanks for catching that. Fixed.
9:06am PT, October 9: 9,152.41 –105.69 –1.14%
I think it will be very close to 9g today but not below.
Just like changing course of a very large ship, it takes time. The "rescue plan" has still not been implemented and it's associated benefits will take time for folks to see. Right now the market is moving based upon fear and uncertainty (e.g.; irrationalism) Let the plan's effects gain a foothold and we'll see early this week's nosdive start to pull back up on the stick.
I'd like to believe that, Mike, but many believe this to be based on fear *and* reality. The bailout/rescue plan for $700B may only touch the surface. I've been reading reports that it could go beyond $2 trillion.
The sub-prime mortgage crisis which has frozen credit markets has evolved into a full blown, once in a hundred years, worldwide financial disaster.
Complicated unregulated “instruments” (mathematical algorithms developed by scientists to try and make any bad loan still make money, which obviously didn’t work) and “credit default swaps,” which are at the heart of this crisis, could involve nearly $60 trillion. That’s not a typo. That’s 4 times the size of the U.S. debt.
The credit swaps are insurance-based in everything but name, because if they were called insurance, they would have to be regulated. So, the mortgage securities were terrible investments sold to people who couldn’t afford them, and the swaps were “insurance” sold and traded to cover them. What happens when people can’t pay their inflated mortgages that have lost their value? The banks holding the notes and the places that sell the insurance can’t keep up, thus everything implodes.
The "bailout/rescue" was mainly for psychological effect, and so far it hasn't seemed to work.
The NASDAQ has dropped 500 points in the last 30 days, over 1,000 points in the last 12 months. Public companies are going to be forced to let more people go, just like eBay did yesterday. Right now, the Dow is where it was in mid-2003.
It's a vicious cycle. While I find the plan frustrating and distasteful like everyone else (especially the pork-filled version that was passed), I think we all want to find something, anything, to work. And sooner rather than later.
at 11:51am PT, Dow is at 9,078.98 –179.12 –1.93%. It's getting close. (sigh)
It seems like there is no end in sight. How about a 8000 dip prediction for November?
Dow is now at 8961.10 as of 13:06MDT.
I don't think it will take until November for the Dow to dip below 8000. It's 13:51MDT and the Dow is showing just above 8600 on my ticker.
I think a more interesting prediction at this point would be how long before it gets back above 10,000. We can incrementally bet on the way down, but it would be more difficult to predict when it will be back up.
How about we do both?
With a prediction like this - who looses?
Did anyone bet against this?
Seems like the over/under for this should have been a little different - say 7,000?
8,579.19 -678.91 -7.33% with 15 minutes to go before closing. Horrifying.
@Cushing, when I created this yesterday, I had no idea it would drop this fast. I was expecting to see some rockiness, but the bet seemed, at best, a 60/40 proposition when I wrote it. In fact, yesterday seemed like a fairly quiet day until the last hour of trading or so when it suddenly dropped almost 200 points.
Today crushed everything. I'm still stunned.
I was going to do an 8k prediction today, but now that seems too probable to me.
Seriously, maybe a prediction that Google will drop below $300 is too easy... Think about that for a second.
Hi Eric - Thanks for the reply - I am sure you didn't think this was going to go down today... (or was the DOW reacting to this prediction... coincidence?)
Just in case I am that mighty, I made a prediction in the other direction. ;)
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