Submitted by Eric Hill09.15.2008
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This prediction is closed and has been judged.
The unfolding crises in the U.S. housing and credit markets have led to an unprecendented crisis in the U.S. economy, sending shockwaves to world markets and causing the failure of some of Wall Street's biggest financial firms.
The incredible velocity of the financial news coming from Wall Street and Washington came to a climax today, September 15, 2008, as the Dow plunged over 500 points with Lehman Brothers filing Chapter 11, Bank of America acquiring Merrill Lynch, and A.I.G. requiring massive handouts to stay propped up. The Dow closed below 11,000 for only the first time since July of 2006.
As the Dow shed over 4% in one day, the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) saw it’s worst losses in seven years.
A dire economic environment could ultimately sour consumer confidence, investor confidence, consumer spending, venture funding, online advertising – all of which would have a detrimental impact on the tech market and Internet businesses and startups.
Prediction: Will the Dow drop below 10,000 during intraday trading between now and December 31, 2008? It does not need to close under 10,000, but merely go below 10,000. After hours trading will not be considered for judgment.
Let the community decide. Place your bets below.
Price History
Prediction Statistics
| Betting Closes: | Dec 31 2008 | Current Consensus: | 85.20% | Total Bets: | 93 |
| Today's Change: | 26.54% | ||||
| Life Time High: | 85.20% | ||||
| Life Time Low: | 24.05% |
Comments
As of this writing, the Dow is down ––338.06 to 10,720.96.
We lost over 500 points on Monday. The 52 week low is 10,660.14, which we are flirting with today.
The next few days should influence this prediction heavily, one way or the other.
Dow is down –449.36, to 10,609.66. Scary times. Obviously, AIG isn't the only securities insurance firm out there. Good Q&A here on the current economic turmoil.
This one is still too close to tell. At close, the CBOT Dow Jones Index futures are still above 11,000.
Contract Open High Low Prev Settle Chg
DJ Industrial Average Index
Sep '08 10750 11090 10750 10959 11052 93
Dec '08 10740 11085 10730 10949 11045 96
Mar '09 11044 11044 11044 10936 11044 108
Jun '09 11057 11057 11057 10959 11057 98
- Sentiments are definitely negative.
- Technical analysis shows support around 10,000 (head and shoulder) and the psychological support.
- Fed may still commit to another emergency cut in rates (despite voting a couple days ago to not change).
Disclosure: I currently do not have a position on this prediction.
I heard a comment today that, had AIG been allowed to go bankrupt, it could have touched $1 trillion. That would have set off a chain reaction worldwide, and the concept of a Depression in the US would have been talked about more and more, not just a recession (which we're obviously in right now after 8 months of job losses). If housing prices still have another 5-10% to lose, we're still going to be riding this wave for awhile, I fear.
Bush is attempting to put the last finishing nails in the coffin before McLiar gets elected. However there is the chance the dow could regain a few points and he will fail. Have no fear. mccain will finish off our economy after lying his way into office. Gas prices will surge. The dow will reach new lows below 8000. Houses will be nearly free, yet no one will have the money for one. We'll also be far to engrossed in a war that mccain will swear he can WIN at all costs. Yep, things are going great...
As for the dow. Expect it to dip below 10,000 within 2 months, BEFORE 2009. Watch out when it hits 10,000, because it will automatically fall another 500 points or more at first as that is a mental line most don't want to see crossed. I admit, there's always plenty of chances of a turn around. It's just a matter of when.
@marstimes, care to register and bet some money (play money) on that?
What a swing today! 13% wortth! A positive 2% swing early which were lost down to negative 4% swiing before market roared back with a near positive swing 7% to end the day with a net 3.87% (410.77) change to Dow which broke back the 11,000 mark. Looks like the CBOT futures were good indicators of trader's sentiments. With global banks getting in the action, the global meltdown may not occur. Still, this is a prediction with an intraday criteria. This could still swing down below 10K or it may not. I suspect the consensus will straddle near 50% for a while. As for Dow, I expect profit taking to drag it down tomorrow.
The consensus % on this prediction swings just like Dow. I suspect there will be a few more swings left on this bet before settling down.
Guess I was wrong about profit taking on Friday. Maybe Monday it will happen. :)
Profit taking on Monday and post-weekend blues caused Dow drop by over 200.on intraday.
Post-weekend blues is right.
More and more, even hard-core conservative intellectuals are asking if Paulson's approach will work. If the government buys all of these "junk" mortgages, and if they buy them at rock bottom prices, housing prices will continue to fall. This means that they'll actually have to pay for these mortgages at higher prices in the hopes that the market will stabilize. It's very dubious, and no one really knows if it will work. And we, the taxpayers, get to pay for everything. If this isn't a complete rebuke of deregulation and government intervention, I don't know what is.
Whoever is in charge of the next administration, they'll essentially have their hands completely tied. No money for universal health care. No money for tax breaks for individuals or corporations. It could, however, accelerate the withdrawal from costly wars in the Middle East.
Once the shock wears off, the anger will soon follow.
Perhaps, this is the second installment of the "Shock and Awe" dance. A simple two step dance ...
1) "Shock" the system with $700B to bail out corporate greed and other grease monkeys ....
2) "Awe"-shucks, we screwed up again .... repeat from step #1
Did you hear that Lehman tops execs has a $2.5B bonus coming up despite it went belly-up and being picked up by Barclays? Huh? What?
Wall Street Waltz ... 1 step forward then 2 steps back. Market is tanking again. Dow off near 400 points and dipped below 11K again.
Indeed, I find it odd that investors seem to be encouraging a "shoot from the hip" solution without much oversight. Sometimes I feel like the Dow is akin to a daily Gallup poll, but it doesn't always follow logic very closely. It's quite manic-depressive.
Barrons used the term "Shock and Awe" as well to describe yesterday. http://online.barrons.com/article/SB122212298912164951.html?mod=googlene...
Slip sliding away ... Dow down 105 pts thus far .... http://finance.google.com/finance?cid=983582
Bailout plan stalled at the Senate where pay limits and equity are being proposed by Democrats and avoid the knee-jerk rush to rubber stamp the plan.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&add...
and http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/rescue-plan-hits-speed-bump/story....
Recession imminent absent of timely bailout according Bernanke.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26850571/
Double see saw day. Almost recovered on the 2nd wave before crashing yet again before closing down 161 pts.
Looks like bail out approval is imminent. Market responding favorably.
Looks like the agreement has been made over the main outline of the bill.
"House and Senate negotiators emerged from a closed-door meeting today and said they have reached basic agreement on a massive financial rescue plan that they hope to pass soon."
Dow down 300 points today. Another turbulent day with the markets.
Just knee-jerk anxiety awaiting for the bailout vote and possibly some profit taking.
Down plunged -700 at one point today, and it's down -635 right now. 10,508.57
This seems quite feasible as of this very second. 500 points isn't that huge of a leap on days like today, in times like this.
Ouch! Down by 750 intraday!
Holy crap! Dow closed at intraday low of 10,365.45 (down 777.68 almost 7% drop). This is going to set a global chain of stock crashes.
Following suit in the Latin American market ...
Brazillian market sheds 13%
Argentinean market sheds 8.8%
Closed prior to US Dow crashes ..
Nikkei225 down 1.26%
Hang Seng down 4.29%
Strats Times down 2.08%
FTSE downs 5.3%
DAX down 4.23%
CAC 40 down 5.04%
I suspect Asian and European markets to shed some more in their next trading day and US to continue to slide absent of a bailout plan.
Yep.. the carnage has continued in Asia as it opens for trading (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26949764/)
Nikkei down another 4.6^
Seoul's Kospi down 3.5%
Hang Seng downs 5.5%
Taiwan index down 6.1%
Australia down 4%
New Zealand down 4%
European markets will follow suit with the downward spiral. I have the feeling that Dow will break 10K intraday tomorrow.
Looks like a little bargain hunting is taking place. Stock futures are showing a little uptick at open (a +1% on Dow). For the day, I still think that negative pressure remains.
Dead cat bounce over. Profit taking to follow. There has been no change in the fundamentals and volume does not support sustain bounce.
Food for thought ... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aqB2tptFv8zg&refer=u...
I'm a little surprised by today's movement on this. The Dow closed at 10,325. That's not that far away from a favorable judgment on this prediction. A lot are worried that the "bail out" won't work. From the reports I've read, the $700 billion figure came almost out of thin air. $500 seemed too low, and $1 trillion seemed too high. I'd be willing to bet (no pun intended) that this is just the first "bail out". We'll surpass the $700 billion mark.
The prediction has been judged. The Dow dropped well below 10,000 around 10:30 am this morning.
Ian Lamont
Managing Editor
The Industry Standard
I believe that the dow will dip to 6000 within the next two years. I believe this based on the following facts;
1.) Near the begining of 1990 the dow was at aproximatly 2590
2.) It has been 18 years and the dow increased almost 5 fold
3.) The GDP and the US population increase does not support the dow increasing by these numbers.
4.) At best case the dow average should be only around 4100 points (not even considering the housing crunch).
Do your research you will see that the markets are over priced and this is just the market correcting itself.
When You Gonna Wake Up?
By Bob Dylan
God don't make no promises that He don't keep.
You got some big dreams, baby, but in order to dream you gotta still be asleep.
When you gonna wake up, when you gonna wake up
When you gonna wake up and strengthen the things that remain?
Counterfeit philosophies have polluted all of your thoughts.
Karl Marx has got ya by the throat, Henry Kissinger's got you tied up in knots.
When you gonna wake up, when you gonna wake up
When you gonna wake up and strengthen the things that remain?
You got innocent men in jail, your insane asylums are filled,
You got unrighteous doctors dealing drugs that'll never cure your ills.
When you gonna wake up, when you gonna wake up
When you gonna wake up and strengthen the things that remain?
You got men who can't hold their peace and women who can't control their tongues,
The rich seduce the poor and the old are seduced by the young.
When you gonna wake up, when you gonna wake up
When you gonna wake up and strengthen the things that remain?
Adulterers in churches and pornography in the schools,
You got gangsters in power and lawbreakers making rules.
When you gonna wake up, when you gonna wake up
When you gonna wake up and strengthen the things that remain?
Spiritual advisors and gurus to guide your every move,
Instant inner peace and every step you take has got to be approved.
When you gonna wake up, when you gonna wake up
When you gonna wake up and strengthen the things that remain?
Do you ever wonder just what God requires?
You think He's just an errand boy to satisfy your wandering desires.
When you gonna wake up, when you gonna wake up
When you gonna wake up and strengthen the things that remain?
You can't take it with you and you know that it's too worthless to be sold,
They tell you, "Time is money" as if your life was worth its weight in gold.
When you gonna wake up, when you gonna wake up
When you gonna wake up and strengthen the things that remain?
There's a Man up on a cross and He's been crucified.
Do you have any idea why or for who He died?
When you gonna wake up, when you gonna wake up
When you gonna wake up and strengthen the things that remain?
Copyright Special Rider Music 1979
World stock brakedown - yes . 50% of the stock owners in the USA are private investors - in Europe it is "only" 40% most of these stock investments are loaned and "geared" investments what will happen when they discover the failure and sell out which is already happening now! ?
BEAR Market and potential bankrupcy for lots of stock owners ( many of them for loaned money) that will sell out in panic thats what we for sue see now. -
This and the psycological facfum from the media on how much we are in the bear market can cause another " Wall Street Crack" like in 1939 + the fact that the Chinese,(80% of the stockholders in China are private) South American and other I- contrries oveheated economy could push the wold economy into a castatrophy
I keep track of Dow Closing every (market Day obviously) Day and I know that every market day in 2008 up UNTIL 6 October 2008 the Dow closed at over 10,000 points. On 6 October 2008 Dow closing dropped below 10,000 points and remained below 10,000points For the CONCLUSION of 2008. THIS is the truth. Other sites have lied.
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