Submitted by Eric Hill10.09.2008
Thunderdome
Loading...
Categories
This prediction is closed and has been judged.
Between September 10, 2008, and October 9, 2008, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has shed over 2,650 points (-24%). On October 9, the Dow fell over 7% in one day, “posting one of [its] worst days in post-war history.“
Some have argued that fear has surpassed logic.
Let the community decide.
Prediction: Between October 10, 2008, and November 7, 2008, the Dow Jones industrials will rally +1,000 points above the opening mark during intraday trading in a single day. Note: This could close post US election results, assuming 1) a rally does not occur sooner, or 2) the election results are not in dispute at that time.
The Dow does not need to close with a 1,000-point gain, but merely to achieve it intraday in a single day. However, the +1000 points must be above the opening price for that day. An intraday spread (using the daily low vs. the daily high) will not count.
Place your bets below. (AP Image; click image to enlarge)
Price History
Prediction Statistics
| Betting Closes: | Nov 07 2008 | Current Consensus: | 3.39% | Total Bets: | 46 |
| Today's Change: | 0% | ||||
| Life Time High: | 48.75% | ||||
| Life Time Low: | 3.39% |
Suggest a Prediction
If a suggestion you submit to The Exchange is accepted, your account will receive S$25,000.00 Standard dollars
Suggest Predictions View all suggestionsMost Active Predictions
Free White Papers
- The Missing Link White Paper Driving Business Results Through Pay-for-Performance
- Changing the Game White Paper 4 Ways to Unlock Your Employees’ Performance Potential
- 9 Critical Reasons to Automate Performance Management
- Driving Success White Paper The Incredible Power of Company-Wide Goal Alignment
- Roadmap to Success White Paper Driving Bottom-Line Results with People Performance
RSS Feeds
Main Feed
Views & Analysis (all contributors)
Latest News (all contributors)
The Industry Standard News (no 3rd-party contributions)
Predictions
All Site Comments
Comments
Global meltdown. Nikkei 225 dipped almost 12% (18% drop in 1 week!). Indices everywhere are seeing the global onslaught. Might be a while before DJIA recovers. At todays close, it would take about 12% day gain to break the 1000pts. A rather herculean task in such a crisis.
What a vicious cycle...
A vicious cycle indeed.... DJIA down nearly 6% right now and had actually dipped below 8000 (intraday low of 7882). According to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_daily_changes_in_the_Dow_Jo..., the largest point gain ever occurred on March 16, 2000 at +499.19. The top ten is listed below:
Rank Date Close Net Change % Change
1 March 16, 2000 10,630.60 +499.19 +4.93
2 July 24, 2002 8,191.29 +488.95 +6.35
3 September 30, 2008 10,850.66 +485.21 +4.68
4 July 29, 2002 8,711.88 +447.49 +5.41
5 March 18, 2008 12,392.66 +420.41 +3.51
6 March 11, 2008 12,156.81 +416.66 +3.55
7 September 18, 2008 11,019.69 +410.03 +3.86
8 April 5, 2001 9,918.05 +402.63 +4.23
9 April 18, 2001 10,615.83 +399.10 +3.91
10 April 1, 2008 12,654.36 +391.47 +3.19
Let me be totally clear: to achieve a +1,000 day, that would mean you went +1,000 points over the open price. That does not include a gain of a 1,000 points after having lost, say, 800.
Today we witnessed a remarkable event.
Markets opened this morning at 8,568.67. That's our base line. Not long after the opening bell, markets plunged to 7,882.51. The panic was in full force. Later in the afternoon, stocks went as high as 8,901.28. That's over 1,000 points. But, it's only a +332.61 gain for the day even though the daily spread was much bigger due to the earlier huge losses. Had the day gone to 9,568.67 at some point today, and dropped back down, this would have been judged favorably.
Make sense? I'm assuming so, as the TIS market did not swing wildly north today. Just wanted to make that clear.
A little more on this...
From Yahoo! Finance (emphasis mine): "the Dow, which traded in a range of 1,019 points Friday, had its worst week ever,"
A range does not constitute a +1,000 day.
@Eric, glad you clear that up although the prediction verbiage is fairly clear. Although, I was gonna back up the truck if someone had decided to push it north today.
This has a possibility of happening, judging by the Dow's huge decline over this passed week and the plans to buy up equity, announced today. Yet, it's hard to imagine the index going all the way up to +1,000 points, from a single day's open to close. Let's see what happens on Monday :) ..I have some cash at stake here..
@Lev, possible? Yes but is it likely? Are you betting for or against?
@David, during these economic times, it is more likely than usual. My bet is "for" it, right now, and against the community consensus, so I have a little more to gain than to lose, in this prediction. Have you wagered anything?
@Lev, I have active "against" bets. I am expecting wild and large swings on a daily basis until the crisis is tamed (as seen on Friday Oct 10). However, +1000pts above open is a challenge in the given time frame. With multitude of countries now enacting bail out plans of their own (requiring passage through their own legislatures), it will take some time before any of these bailouts take real affect. The highest ever daily gain is about 15% which took place in 1933 when the DJIA was still below 100. It will take more than 10% to break the 1000 points mark today. The largest point gain in a day ever is tad below 500.
I also posted two new suggestions http://thestandard.com/predictions/suggestions/10-drop-dow-jones-industr... and http://thestandard.com/predictions/suggestions/10-gain-dow-jones-industr.... Can I count on your vote?
Dow Futures look week over the weekend. If this holds up, DJIA looks to shed another 200 pts after open on Monday (Columbus Day).
@David:
Sure thing, you've got 2 of my votes (both yeses :)
As far as the bailouts having effects on the market goes, large swings of +1000 gain in one day, I think, can only be achieved right after their announcement, and not as a result of an actual bailout. That's why I'm not too worried about the time it will take for bailouts to take their effect, in this context. Also, the 15% gain in 1933 was the change from the previous day's close, of $53.84, to the next day's close, of $62.10. I don't know how far above 15% did the change in the price go, during its intraday fluctuation, back then; but that is what's important in this prediction: it's highest inraday gain (from the open price).
A reversal is happening.... as government decides to assist banks globally ... Asia markets are looking up and DJIA futures is now at +235.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aLq.qzqPM9v0&refer=h...
On October 13, as of 12:08pm ET, +515.00 +6.09%. Half way there.
Looks like this one is for the record books as the highest point gain in a day +622.61 @ 3:01pm ET. Close but yet so far from +1000. With 1 hr to go, does it have enough momentum to continue or will traders cap their profits before close?
+685 with 30 mins to go before close. Doesn't look like it is gonna make +1000 today.
Wow! Over +800 pts ... under 10 mins to go.
Dow closed up 960+ pts, more than 11%, but those numbers aren't final yet.
Wow! Wow! Wow! It got to +973! at the very last 5 secs! So very close ....
+950 ...
History be damned. This almost happened. Thank you, England (and Europe)!! Let's hope this restores some confidence and the markets settle.
Why does this measure off of the opening price, rather than the previous-day close?
As this is currently written there could be a 1,000 point gain for the day and still have this prediction fail (today, for example, the market opened at 8,462.42, 9 points above the 10/10 close of 8,451.19. Those 9 points came very close to mattering here).
@Bradley, I had to base it off of something. My main concern was to not have this judged from a range after trading began. For instance, the market could open at 8k, then drop 200 points, then close at +8,800. I didn't want that to be the +1,000 swing.
I chose the open price because, from a layman's perspective, it's what I look at for any given market/stock. Open, High, Low. It's easy to calculate.
What's incredible is how incredibly close we got today. I'm still in a bit of shock. And now, after the Feds have injected $250B into 9 banks tonight, I honestly have no idea what will happen on Tuesday. Will people cash out? Invest (gamble) more?
It all feels like one crazy night at the casino.
Man, maybe this should be + OR - 1,000 points. What an intensely depressing situation. -508.23 (5.46%) as of 11:24am PT.
@Eric, if Dow closes bellow 500 point today, there might be another chance for it to rebound to a +1000 again! I was a little disappointed with the Monday's gain; but I see there is still hope left, for those few ...nonconformist betters lift in this prediction..
I was watching The Daily Show w/ Jon Stewart, on hulu yesterday, and he specifically said that Dow Jones went up one thousand point on Monday... he is a legitimate enough source for me, I thought.. :))
What a day (-738 points)!! In two sessions, DJIA almost lost all of the gains on October 13. I just posted a suggestion for a single day -1000 point loss (http://thestandard.com/predictions/suggestions/dow-jones-has-1000-point-...). Please vote.
@Lev, Jon Stewart was "rounding" up as part of his usual exaggerated sense.
@David, I was being facetious..
Shouldn't come as a surprise: Bernanke: Quick economic rebound not in cards.
Brace yourself. Tomorrow may yet be another one for the record book. Asian market plunged again with Japan (-10%), Korea (-7%), Australia (-6%), Singapore (-6%) China (-4%)
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15921552/
Brace yourself again. Global market dives again . Today will be a big down day again. Pre-market limit down hit breaker triggered. DJIA -550 before open.
It would really depend on who are President will be to know how high the stock market is going to go. Or maybe it won’t matter who, as long as after Election Day, it will be an emphasis on Bush finally leaving. I’m very excited to find out what will happen, as much as the hundreds of thousands of voters on Predicto.com. This gaming website is having a poll on whether the Dow Jones will close above 9,000 points on Election Day? I optimistically texted yes!
Almost +900pts today.
Post new comment