Submitted by Yi-Wyn Yen02.23.2009
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This prediction is closed and has been judged.
Judgment made on March 6, 2009: What a nailbiter. Though the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell below 6500 in intraday trading, the DJIA surged above that mark five minutes before the close and ended at 6626.94 for the worst week in trading this year. Last-minute community betters got this right. -- The Industry Standard
Original prediction: The stock market is on a downward spiral with concerns that President Obama's stimulus package won't do enough to fix or save the banks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has dropped 735 points, or 9%, for the past six trading days since Feb. 13. The bottom seems nowhere in sight.
Prediction: The Dow closes below 6500 by March 9, 2009. The last trading day that will count for judgment is March 6.
Price History
Prediction Statistics
| Betting Closes: | Mar 06 2009 | Current Consensus: | 9.98% | Total Bets: | 96 |
| Today's Change: | -38.77% | ||||
| Life Time High: | 84.55% | ||||
| Life Time Low: | 6.30% |
Comments
March 2 closing date: INDP 6763.29
@Yi-Wyn, date should be March 2nd (not 3rd).
You're right. I'm getting ahead of myself. Cross your fingers for March 3 that it rises.
I suspect the 6500 support be tested given there are little positive news out there.
I'm surprised that the consensus swung so sharply down since the Dow closed at 6726.02 on March 3rd.
I am surprised too. Market sentiments are negative. The seesawing of index today were due to daily speculators. World markets continues to spiral downwards. Pre-market indication is showing DJIA to slide further.
Just curious...why March 9th out of all days?
I wanted this prediction to ride 2 weeks of trading, which means the last day of trading would be March 6 close or before the markets open on March 9.
This is gonna be close. As of this writing, DJIA is down nearly 230 points and stand at 6645.
6,563.30
–312.54
–4.55%
Way too close for comfort.
Oh man, the sky is falling.
Unemployment reports today says 8.1% which is higher than expected 7.9%. Stocks should continue to slide.
Let us hope it does.....we need to bottom out sooner than prolong this agony. The sooner we hit bottom, the sooner the economy can mend itself....without the failed attempts of the government.
Wow, 6529.85 with about three hours left of trading.
DJIA is skirting 6500 right now with downward pressure.
Almost... 1-day low 6,512.72
A mere 13 points away for a second there.
In what year was the last DJIA close, below 6500?
@Chuckjav, I think you're talking somewhere around October of 1996 (it was on an upward trend back then). On January 2, 1996, it was around 5587.
Dow last fell below 6500 on Jan. 2, 1997 closing at 6442.49.
Late mini-surge to 6,541.79 with 2 hours left. I may lose this bet (and, I hope I do).
Intraday low is 6500.70 according to Google Finance page. 6500 is a support. If that breaks, we should see more significant slide thereafter.
6,500.70 is the low so far for today.
6500 support has just been broken at 2:44pm EST.
Question now is, will it *close* below 6500? Yeesh!! This is horrible.
Seem to be an awful lot of optimists (or snipers) waiting for the Dow to close. Consensus still sitting at 41%.
@David, it has to CLOSE below 6500 to be judged favorably.
@Eric, yes, seems like a lot of optimists out there awaiting for last minute bargain hunting (which could still happen).I have $1M 'against' bet on this but this is cutting it too close.
@Yi-Wyn, I understand judgment is based on closing index value. Absent of bargain hunters, this is a guaranteed close under 6500 (given where it is currently).
@chuckjav, the last time DJIA was below 6500 is 1996.
Thanks for the information....BTW, Yi-Wyn Yen's March 09 prediction of DJIA below 6500 - was Awesome; Damn Near Nailed-it to the Day!
Yi-Wyn is the REAL market prognosticator.
@Chuckjav, I think it's not "damn near" - I think it's right on the money (unless there's a last minute surge). Amazing timing on this one. Can't tell you how many times I've refreshed the markets page on NYT.
Oh! It just popped to 6,502.77!!
@David, it's unbelievable how close this prediction is! I have an "against" bet at 80% on this and a feeling that it will go up before 4p.m.
@Eric, keep that finger on the F5 key! :))
This is a done deal. Bargain hunters saved the day for the optimists and resulting in the DJIA with a net gain at end of trading day.
this is crazy... just lost 45k :(
whew.... cashed my "for" bet out at 78%... about 30 seconds before it dropped to 24%
lucky you .... :-/
- S$39,163.80
All-in-all, I made 444k on this one. This was one of the best predictions I have had a chance to bet on. Nicely done, Yi-Wyn!
Thanks everyone. That was exciting, even though I lost $3K. Gah.
@Lev, good job for sticking to your guns on this one. I think Edward B trumped you on the Top Ten with his 888K.
@James, lucky for you that you cashed out right before (and I mean a few seconds before) I flipped the bet from FOR to AGAINST.
@Edward Beckham, you are so darn lucky on this one. You almost lost your shirt AND pants on this one with your yet another all-in bet. But congrats on your 888K win!
This is one of the most volatile prediction thus far. I flipped on this prediction TWICE for a net of S$333,611.24. Had the prediction gone FAVORABLE, I would have net over $1M.
Oh man, that's why Edward was in and out of the leaderboard these past few days!! That explains it! It was all b/c of the insane volatility!!
@Edward, congrats!! ;-)
I had to step away from the computer at the worst possible moment. I could have really scored on this, but ultimately lost over $600k (1/3 of my net worth) due to bad timing. Que sera sera.
@Eric sorry about your loss but you ultimately are the administrator the SQL DB and can perform some "magic" :).
Now, onwards to the next prediction . DJIA breaking 8000, I actually had a FOR bet for the 6500 and the 8000 predictions concurrently. Guess I was only an immediate term pessimist but project a recovery to 8000 within 2 week. Will the 8000 prediction be just as exciting?
@David, LOL! Now that you mention it, where'd that fresh $50M come from in my account? ;)
@Eric, that was probably courtesy of the TIS bailout or stimulus or rescue plan!
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