DOJ indicates antitrust lawsuit over Google books deal?

The U.S. Justice Department has turned up the heat on Google's Book Search settlement with authors and publishers over antitrust concerns. In early June, the DOJ sent civil investigative demands to the parties involved. Now observers are waiting to see if the DOJ will file a suit against Google -- or use the threat of one to get Google and the other participants to rework the settlement.

The case dates to 2005, when the Authors Guild and the Association of American Publishers accused Google of massive copyright violations for not seeking permission from rights owners to scan and index books as part of Google's program to digitize university book collections. The groups sued Google. Last October, Google announced a settlement to end the lawsuits in which it agreed to pay $125 million and legal fees, establish a book rights registry, and pay royalties to authors and publishers, in return for Google providing online access to titles and a way for institutions to buy subscriptions. The settlement has yet to be approved by the court.

Critics say the settlement gives too much power to Google, and also question the control of "orphan works", or books that are under copyright but whose owners can't be located.

Prediction: On or before September 15, 2009, the U.S. Department of Justice threatens to file, or files an antitrust lawsuit that names Google. The lawsuit must involve Google Book Search in the context of antitrust statutes, and the news must be made public. Either the DOJ, Google, or one of Google's partners in the settlement must confirm the lawsuit or threat of a lawsuit before September 15. If the DOJ indicates to Google that it will file a lawsuit before this date, but the news is not revealed until after, the judgment will rendered negative.