Submitted by David Kuan07.14.2008
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This prediction is closed and has been judged.
Judgment on August 13, 2008: From David Kuan, the creator of the original prediction, "The spirit of the prediction when I suggested this is the price that the consumer will have to deal with (prior to any sales tax or shipping/handling or warranty protection). As such the price of $249.97 satisfies the criteria for judgement." We believe that to be the case as stated, and also that this type of pricing will become more and more commonplace in the weeks and months to come. Judged at 100%. -- The Industry Standard
According to Blu-Ray.com, Blu Ray adoption is faster than that of DVD.
Prices for the player have also been declining. Currently, the cheapest Blu Ray player is around $320. Gizmodo indicates that prices will linger around $300.
This is a prediction is that there will be a model of Blu Ray player (new) sold at regular retail pricing below $250 by November 28, 2008 (the day after Thanksgiving) in the U.S. retail market. Note that Blu Ray players for computers do not count towards this prediction. Also, door-buster deals do not count.
Prediction Statistics
| Betting Closes: | Nov 28 2008 | Current Consensus: | 98.59% | Total Bets: | 37 |
| Today's Change: | 11.60% | ||||
| Life Time High: | 98.95% | ||||
| Life Time Low: | 50.00% |
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Lowest priced new BD player as found from www.pricegrabber.com shows one at $295.98 (sold by retailer http://www.landtelectronics.com/item_detail.php?item_id=120522&pg=1 located in Brooklyn, NY). I would not be surprised to see it drops by $50 by day after Thanksgiving.
Same model sold at even cheaper price of $269.99 (http://www.naptronics.com/servlet/the-1231/Samsung-BD-dsh-P1400-Blu-dsh-...).
http://www.tgdaily.com/content/view/38372/113/
"Factory Refurbished" Does this really count as "new", as required by the prediction?
@Bradley, My bad. The Naptronics one was refurbished.
However, the LandTeletronics one is new at $295.98(http://www.landtelectronics.com/item_detail.php?item_id=120522&pg=1).
Amazon dropped the retail price to $298.76 last December for this same model in Dec 2007(http://www.engadget.com/2007/12/08/samsungs-bd-p1400-blu-ray-player-sink...). I would expect this same model to go under $250 (a mere $50 drop) 10 months later (October 2008).
Today's pricing:
New Magnavox Blu-ray Disc Player, NB500MG9 $298 @ WalMart
http://www.walmart.com/catalog/product.do?product_id=9864613
Chinese manufacturers get into the BD players game. Several models announced at SinoCES. That means sub-$250 BD players are coming sooner than later!
Chinese BD player (BDP-0800) wholesale price @ 202 posted since March '08 for ordering(http://www.busytrade.com/products/info/742471/Blu_Ray_Disc_Player.html). Should appear at Retail before Thanksgiving.
Another article saying Blu-Ray players rolls out of production by August 2008 (http://www.cdrinfo.com/Sections/News/Details.aspx?NewsId=23747)
Blu-ray players are definitely gonna drop by November, everything does...
With the threat of cheap, Chinese manufactured Blu-ray players looming on the horizon, companies like Sony, Samsung and LG have begun to reduce the price of their entry-level Blu-ray Disc players. According to DigiTimes, retail prices in the US have by dropped by an average of 25%, bringing the price of BD players below $300. This is months before holiday shopping pricing.
New BD-P1400 @ $289.98 http://www.taaffephoto.com/item_detail.php?item_id=117348
Getting closer .. $279.99
Another one @ 279.99
$279.99 with free shipping at Amazon
This is a done deal. Today's price drop to $249.97
http://www.tigerdirect.com/applications/searchtools/item-details.asp?Edp...
@David, in your prediction you state, "sold at regular retail pricing below $250". The Sylvania model technically sells for the "original" price of $349.99, with a $100 "instant savings". Also, from what I can tell, it is impossible to buy online without a minimum warranty charge of $39.98 - an obvious gimmick, meaning you can't buy the machine for $250, but really $289.98. A tad disingenuous from the retailer's standpoint. What they really seem to be doing is selling the unit for $60 off.
When you said, "sold at regular retail pricing below $250" didn't you imply that the "original" price would be $249.99? So, really, at least currently the Amazon deal is a better one.
Actually, I just tried to buy one. When you "Add to Cart" you can actually bypass the warranty by clicking on a tiny "no thanks" link. But my question still stands - does "sold at regular retail pricing below $250" imply that the "original" price should be $250? I'm just asking.
MSRP is generally a suggested pricing to retailer and does not usually translate to a regular retail pricing. Both Amazon and TigerDirect shows the MSRP of $349.99. Amazon retails it with a savings of $65 and TigerDirect retails it with savings of $100.02.
The spirit of the prediction when I suggested this is the price that the consumer will have to deal with (prior to any sales tax or shipping/handling or warranty protection). As such the price of $249.97 satisfies the criteria for judgement.
Just in case there is no doubt that judgment was made appropriately, we are not yet at Thanksgiving and BD-player prices has now sunk below $200!!!
http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/09/21/sonys-bdp-s300-1080p-blu-ray-player...
http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/09/22/samsungs-bd-p1500-blu-ray-player-di...
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