Bebo spun off or sold?

AOL's new CEO, Tim Armstrong, is not keen on Bebo, judging by recent comments to interviewers. AOL acquired the social networking site in March 2008 for $850 million, long before Armstrong came on board. Since then, Armstrong has been working on formulating a new direction for AOL, and Bebo apparently is not part of the picture, according to TechCrunch's Michael Arrington:

"... Armstrong was asked where Bebo fits into that strategy. His answer, roughly quoted 'Bebo may be better off under AOL Ventures, with it's own P&L.'

Translation - AOL is looking to spin Bebo off into an independent company, and they'll retain an equity interest via AOL Ventures."

If Bebo is indeed spun off or sold, the question is when such a move would occur. An outright sale in the current recession seems unlikely, considering the smaller number of potential suitors and the difficulties social networks have monetizing content and audiences. The scenario described by Arrington may be easier to arrange. The more quickly it's done, the more quickly AOL can focus on the areas that interest Armstrong the most.

Prediction: An announcement that Bebo is to be spun off (i.e., no longer a direct subsidiary of AOL) or sold will occur on or before December 31, 2009. Confirmation must come from a statement or news article quoting AOL, Bebo, or another entity involved in the sale/spinoff.