Submitted by Garrick Hileman09.18.2008
Thunderdome
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Betting closes on Mar 31 2009
The U.S. housing market has taken a beating. According to the S&P/Case-Schiller Home Price index, home values in twenty major metropolitan areas have declined by over 18% from their peak in Q2 2006
In the nation’s technology capital, Bay Area* home prices have fallen 26.8% since their peak in May 2006.
The big question is when will single-family home prices stabilize?
Prediction: The Case-Schiller San Francisco metro area index figure will continue to decline through March 2009.
For this prediction to be judged favorably, the Cash-Schiller index figure will need to decline each month from the previous month’s figure through March 2009.
*Note: The Case-Schiller San Francisco metro area includes homes from the following counties: Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, San Francisco, San Mateo
Let the community decide. Place your bets below.
(Photo credit: Associated Press)
Current Community Consensus 34%Prediction Statistics
| Betting Closes: | Mar 31 2009 | Current Consensus: | 34.30% | Total Bets: | 59 |
| Today's Change: | 0% | ||||
| Life Time High: | 62.25% | ||||
| Life Time Low: | 32.08% |
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Based on futures contract traded at CMEX, the index will decline through September but will uptick in October or November. Looks like an ROI of about 2-3 months for an unfavorable judgment. Do you trust my analysis? Bet favorable at your peril :)
Wow! Was it what I said that caused the drop of 13%?
Hmm.. home sales up 13.6%! http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D939E5SO0&show_article=1.
Home sales are going up a bit (in some places) as prices fall.
July numbers are out. Down 1.8%
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/CSHomePrice_Release_09304...
Moody's just issued a report saying the bottom won't come until 2010:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/26959206
"The U.S. housing market will continue to struggle until at least next summer, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, which is meeting this week in San Francisco." -- SFGate
Good lord I hope the declines continues, these house prices have ruined San Francisco and turned it into a sick resort for the shallow and empty
Latest report out with August number ... San Francisco led the month-by-month declines at -3.5% with 20 city composite at record decline of -16.6%.
http://www.smartmoney.com/breaking-news/smw/?story=20081028090224
See my first comment on this prediction .....
IMO, we are now within ROI of 1 or 2 months for an unfavorable judgment as monthly decline begins to moderate. Expect to see a monthly decline that is LESS than the previous month decline for September or October numbers. So far, PaperEconomy has been very accurate in its analysis. It shows monthly declines in 2008 including a large dip in August with a reversal beginning with September numbers.
Disclosure: I now have an AGAINST bet for this prediction
How will this translate to the Case-Schiller index? Regardless, it is a sign of bottoming if not recovery.
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