Submitted by Yi-Wyn Yen01.09.2009
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This prediction is closed and has been judged.
Judgment made on Jan. 21, 2009: Oh, yes he can. President Barack Obama is photographed by Newsweek using his Blackberry. Based on this evidence, this prediction is ruled as not coming true, which the majority of the community got right.
Original prediction: Barack Obama is desperately trying to keep his Blackberry when he takes office on January 20.
The Secret Service and lawyers are advising Obama to not send email during his presidency for security reasons and for fear that his emails may be subject to subpoena. Obama argues that the Crackberry is the way he keeps up-to-date with everyone and said he is "still fighting" to keep it.
Prediction: Barack Obama will announce that he won't send email on his Blackberry or use his Blackberry during his presidency.
Price History
Prediction Statistics
| Betting Closes: | Jan 20 2009 | Current Consensus: | 24.05% | Total Bets: | 34 |
| Today's Change: | 0% | ||||
| Life Time High: | 86.99% | ||||
| Life Time Low: | 17.51% |
Comments
Like it or not, public record law will prevail and Obama will have go cold turkey on his crackberry after swearing in.
Sounds like Obama is losing the battle to keep his BarackBerry.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/12/technology/internet/12blackberry.html
I don't think the wording on this prediction is clear enough. Who is it that won't be allowing the President of the United States to use his Blackberry? In all likelihood, it will be a choice he makes (not imposed on him from someone else) at the advice of his staff, security personnel and lawyers.
The wording has to be clearer to say something along the lines of "Obama will announce or otherwise make clear that he will not be using his Blackberry for e-mail while in office."
A good article on this. Also, check out Presidential Record Act,
There are NSA certified wireless devices that have the strictest security and encryption requirements out there. An example is the General Dynamics' Sectera Edge PDA. There are several other examples but none of them are RIM products.
In the low likelihood that Obama will be provisioned with a personal wireless device, it will NOT be a Blackberry. His current Blackberry does not meet the scrutiny of the security requirements. The verbiage of the prediction is solely dependent on Obama keeping his current Blackberry upon taking the POTUS office. Having a replacement secure PDA or having no wireless device at all should render an UNFAVORABLE judgment.
Reference articles:
http://www.blackberrycool.com/2007/10/nsa-develops-military-grade-smartp...
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/01/13/tech/main4718015.shtml
???
NEWFLASH:
Obama dropped his Blackberry on hard airport tarmac. No words yet on if the Blackberry still works.
Also, according to this recent report, Obama's last day with his Blackberry is numbered
Obama refuses to surrender blackberry
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iiBUWryeRm-WiNJqPelBu...
Sometimes, the President does not get everything he wants. IMO, this is likely to be one of those instances. The fact that there are alternative devices that are certified by NSA means that he could still do all that he wanted including sending/receiving emails, just not from his unsecure Blackberry.
Personally, I think it is very irresponsible for him to use an unsecure device when there are alternatives to achieve what he needs.
You know the Blackberry is run by a foreign power with proximity to the Russians. Would not be surprised if Putin was reading Obama's emails now. The device has got to go as not secure enough. Should go for a Microsoft based device as they have much better security.
********************** Start political soapbox **********************
On re-reading the excerpts from the CNN interview, I find it arrogant and irresponsible for someone in the position of POTUS to behave. Why not reject the use of the secure transportation mode and relieve all those secret service agents protection while he is at it? To take on a POTUS means that there are sacrifices. In a way, I kind of wished that the airport tarmac had been more destructive to his Blackberry when it drops. In this age where high tech espionage does a whole lot more damage than conventional espionage, the new President should be more cognizant rather than being ignorant of potential implications.
********************** end political soapbox ***********************
Image 15 of this slideshow: http://www.newsweek.com/id/180602 shows Obama using his BlackBerry post-parade - i.e. as President of the United States. This prediction should be judged at 0% as a result.
Another confirmation ... http://www.engadget.com/2009/01/22/confirmed-obama-gets-his-blackberry-n...
"Prediction: Barack Obama will announce that he won't send email on his Blackberry or use his Blackberry during his presidency."
This was a *very* vague prediction and can be construed to have various meanings. In fact, Obama *WILL BE* forced to stop using his Blackberry at some point "during his presidency" and, as has been pointed out numerous times and by numerous sources (including this one on CIO.com: http://advice.cio.com/al_sacco/barackberry_look_at_what_will_replace_pre...), the new NSA-certified device *WILL NOT* be a RIM Blackberry.
For these reasons, I submit that this prediction was misleading, vague, and ambiguous and, as a result, should be reversed.
Full disclosure: I lost a ton on it. ;)
@Tony, I disagree. Barack Obama has consistently indicated his intention on retaining his Blackberry. The fact that he was using it after the parade when he has officially became the President meant that the opposite of the judgment criteria had come true thus the unfavorable judgment.
Disclosure: I lost $ too on this. I was so certain that he wouldn't be able to for myriads of security reasons.
@Tony, sorry you lost money but this judgment will not be reversed. Obama's press secretary confirmed that he has a BlackBerry. The president upgraded to a new, top secret PDA that is a Blackberry.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DNx0ANZQono
Disclosure: I too lost big $$$.
Fair enough, guys. The wording could have stated "at any point during his presidency" or something along those lines, but I digress.
@Yi-Wen, thanks for the link.
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