Submitted by Eric Hill10.29.2008
Thunderdome
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News149027Salesforce's
This prediction is closed and has been judged.
Early judgment on December 23, 2008: Completely under the radar on December 22, 2008, Apple quietly made eBooks available in iTunes by oddly labelling them as "apps" in the App Store. One might predict a future major iTunes category of Books to be created, but for now, eBooks are officially "apps". We have wondered for some time if the App Store will some day get a total rebranding as its wares' tentacles reach into more and more markets. In any case, this prediction has been judged as having come true. -- The Industry Standard
Original prediciton: Amazon has sold digital books (eBooks) for over five years now with an operating margin of 15% - 20%, compared to 4% - 5% for physical books. While actual sales figures on eBooks are nearly impossible to come by from Amazon, it’s expected to be a growing market, much like the conversion from music CDs to MP3s and the like, albeit at a much slower pace.
Google has announced their own plans to sell digital books.
Apple can’t be far behind.
Prediction: Between now and the end of Macworld 2009 (January 5-9) Apple will offer, or at least make an official public announcement to offer, eBooks for sale via iTunes.
Price History
Prediction Statistics
| Betting Closes: | Jan 05 2009 | Current Consensus: | 81.00% | Total Bets: | 18 |
| Today's Change: | 45.57% | ||||
| Life Time High: | 81.00% | ||||
| Life Time Low: | 35.43% |
Comments
The prediction criteria has been met for a favorable judgment.
Apple is now officially selling eBooks through the App Store in iTunes (as of December 22) with price ranging from $8.99 to $25.99. Just like songs and movie downloads, Apple makes a percentage of each sale. In this case eBooks sold via App Store in iTunes, it is 30%.
http://www.mobclix.com/appstore/search/scrollmotion/1/releasedate/page/1
Super great find, David! Totally under the radar release. I KNEW this would come to pass some day. With the next iTunes release, I'll expect a "Books" category in the left navigation will show up.
Really nice find here. Thanks!
Hm... that really should be a prediction: "Books to become main category in iTunes?"
I believe this was judged incorrectly. There have been apps which just display a book ever since the app store came out. Here's the link for Wizard of Oz, released on July 5th:
http://itunes.apple.com/WebObjects/MZStore.woa/wa/viewSoftware?id=284928...
If this was the basis of what you consider an ebook, then this prediction should be invalidated instead of judged as true. It was already a fact that these were for sale before this prediction was created.
Apple has not yet made ebooks available - these are 3rd parties creating a basic wrapper app around the text of a book. The prediction was that Apple would start selling ebooks, not that someone could drop text into an app and offer it up for sale on the existing app store. For this to be judged as true, Apple would need to release an ebook reader (similar to Stanza or eReader) and sell the books to fill that app's library.
The basis of this judgement can't be the fact that there is a Books category in the App Store either - since Apple added that in July, after folks complained that all of the eBooks that AppEngines was releasing were filling up the store pages. Here's an article from July 16th showing the Books category:
http://www.lockergnome.com/digged/2008/07/16/app-store-gets-books-catego...
The article which David linked to has nothing to do with Apple's sales of these books which have been going on for a long time. In my opinion, this can go one of two ways:
1) The prediction is invalidated completely, since these "ebooks" have been for sale since July
2) The prediction is reopened until we see if Apple releases actual ebooks (with a single reader app and individual books for that app are sold in iTunes alongside the Audiobooks).
Re-reading the original prediction, it seems like it was made and approved based on someone not realizing that Apple already does what you're now judging it by. When I saw the prediction (and bet on it) it was because I was sure you already knew about the 35 pages of books on the App Store, and were instead making a prediction about a true ebook experience on the iPhone.
@Kevin, this is my perspective ....
1) There was nowhere in the prediction verbiage that mandates a "single reader app and individual books for that app".
2) The verbiage also did not explicitly mandate that the eBooks be provided by Apple (rather than 3rd party).
3) All Apps in the App Store are approved by Apple. The fact that ScrollMotion managed to secure deals with major publishers negates the need for Apple to do same on its own. It is an even sweeter deal that the Ebooks are bundled as Apps and all Apple has to do is to ensure that the Ebook content is acceptable and let the App Store engine and billing relationships do its magic (making Apple $).
The source you found actually confirms that the prediction criteria has indeed come true. There is a Books category within iTunes App Store and that Ebooks are being sold. The fact that the prediction has become true prior to be being put into play does not make the criteria not met. There has been at least 2 predictions in such a situation (that I am aware of) that were put in play (one of which I lost $ on)
I have learned to never to assume or read too much into the prediction verbiage. When there is doubt, I would ask for clarification prior to making a bet. The way this prediction had been set up, it was meant to cover Ebook sales via iTunes without specificity or explicit constraints.
This makes the whole prediction market look pretty amateur if we're going to allow people to submit predictions that are already true, have them approved for betting, and allow them to stand just because of loose wording. What is the value of the market if a bogus prediction is allowed to stand? I didn't lose much S$ on this, but the principle of how this is being judged based on 6 month old existing applications is wrong.
Anyone who has used the App Store knows that there have been these 'book' applications for months - the only unique thing about this prediction would be if Apple actually released an ebook reader application and sells the books in the store, like they do for Audiobooks.
People were pulling in podcasts with 3rd party podcast apps long before Apple started to support them in iTunes, but noone would claim that Apple offered official podcast support until the real functionality was added to iTunes. This is no different than that.
@TheStandard can you please chime in here and make a call? Am I crazy? Did y'all really not know that hundreds of these book apps have been for sale since the app store was released, and I just misinterpreted this prediction when I thought it meant you were proposing that Apple would start selling real eBooks?
@Kevin,
First and foremost, MERRY CHRISTMAS! =)
So, are you saying that prior to December 22, 2008, I could go into iTunes, find the "Books" category and buy eBooks? The title of this (simple) prediction was "Apple to *sell* eBooks..." which they are obviously now doing. This wasn't about the ability of the iPhone to use eBook apps (on your old jailbroken phone) or newer eBook apps available since the App Store opened. It was a prediction that Apple would officially start to sell eBooks, which it appears that they are now doing. My guess is that this is going to balloon into a larger, more robust offering in 2009. Wouldn't having the Books category in iTunes be considered an officially sanctioned move here?
And Merry Christmas to you as well. =)
Yes, since July you could go onto the App Store and click the Books category and purchase these book apps. They added that Books category in mid-July:
http://www.lockergnome.com/digged/2008/07/16/app-store-gets-books-catego...
The prediction said that Apple would 'offer' or make an 'announcement to offer' eBooks. Since that category and these book apps had been out since July, I interpreted the prediction as Apple actually selling proper eBooks, instead of the makeshift book apps that folks have been selling for 6 months.
If you meant for it to just be these book apps, then I misinterpreted it and am OK with losing the small amount I bet on it. But I think you need to seriously consider the implications of putting up predictions that are already true, and then allowing people to bet on them and then judging them based on the existing functionality.
As far as Apple offering these book apps for sale, here's Wizard of Oz, which went on sale on July 5th:
http://itunes.apple.com/WebObjects/MZStore.woa/wa/viewSoftware?id=284928...
If that is indeed the case, then David and I must have missed the boat on this one when we noticed all of the books release dates to be December 22 or 23. I don't see a single book in the iTunes store older than that.
That being said, Apple's "release dates" are highly dubious. Any recent update overwrites the original release date, so it can be nearly impossible to tell how new something is (go look up the birth date of the NYTimes app in iTunes and you'll see what I mean).
If anyone else believes they lost this bet unfairly, let me know. Kevin, I'll take a look at your portfolio and reimburse you the original amount you wagered.
Eric
I dropped S$200k on it yesterday expecting that the prediction was looking for something new. I was aware that Apple had previously made a point of rejecting books for anything remotely approaching adult language but did allow other books.
I don't believe I lost this bet unfairly. I lost because I couldn't be bothered to go research it.
For predictions which are over before they begin it would be ideal if they are rejected and never made into predictions. Barring that (which in the real world we have to), it's worth it to close it out when the mistake is discovered. I'm okay with either the solution that they be rolled back or settled, but the decision should be consistently applied to all such situations.
Right - so, what I'm trying to say is that when David alerted me to the dates in iTunes, it appeared the eBooks were new. If what Kevin is saying is true - and I'm sure it is - somehow these were in iTunes the whole time, but with old dates that got made into new dates, for some unknown reason.
Currently, rolling a prediction back is a bit challenging technologically. I can give you your money back, but I can't easily take David's away today without writing a bunch of custom scripts. The expense isn't really worth it.
We need a better system to handle situations like this, but until then...we work it out on a case by case (or person by person) basis.
In retrospect, I could have waited until tomorrow to judge this prediction, but since the comments were quiet after David dropped his note, I was unaware of the potential controversy.
Let me be clear - the eBooks in iTunes appeared new due to their dating scheme, and were available for immediate purchase. When I wrote this, I was really looking for a more robust acceptance of eBooks to battle Amazon/Google, but the dates fooled me, I suppose. Had I waited on judgment, I might have gotten in trouble, too.
Solution - we focus on building a "suspended" or "halted" switch that can freeze a bet until we know more. We might get slammed for using it too much (and, it will stop people from last minute Cash Outs), but I would rather be in that situation than this one.
Seasons Greetings and to all a Happy New Year!!!!!
@Bradley, I concur with your comments
"For predictions which are over before they begin it would be ideal if they are rejected and never made into predictions. Barring that (which in the real world we have to), it's worth it to close it out when the mistake is discovered. I'm okay with either the solution that they be rolled back or settled, but the decision should be consistently applied to all such situations."
I, however, was unaware of any eBooks being sold already around July '08. None of my earlier research had provided that indication. No one has alerted TIS and community that the prediction may have been moot for the duration that it was put into play. My initial bets on this prediction were "Against". The information submitted for 'Judge Early' was acknowledged by many other sites (even those articles seems to suggest that this would become mainstream eBook sales for Apple) , I re-read the prediction verbiage (several times) to make sure that it would qualify, in my opinion. Only then did I cashed out my "Against" bets and placed significant "For" bets instead.
That said, I had lost S$ on this Cafescribe prediction with no rollback even though the prediction was already moot when it was put into play. So, the action on this prediction is consistent with the Cafescribe prediction resolution.
@Eric, in addition to the "suspend"/"halt" capability, I suggest creating the option of "nullify" (which can be used for prediction in "Suspend"/"Halted" state. The "nullify" action will essentially negate all active bets (does not apply to any past bets cashed out) with no gain/loss. Technically, I am not sure how much effort it would take to do that via custom script but it should be fairly easy since the bets are frozen.
Hey everyone, sorry for the delay on resolving this. We're busy closing out all of the end-of-year predictions, in addition to Macworld, as well as adding a lot of new content today. I haven't forgotten about this one, and will address it as soon as possible.
Thanks for understanding.
Eric
@Eric, take your time. I do see Yi-Wyn Yen fairly active today. Is she one of the new firepower addition to TIS you alluded to in Team Blog posting?
You got it, David. ;)
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