Submitted by Marc Chiang12.03.2008
Thunderdome
Loading...
Categories
This prediction is closed and has been judged.
Judgment made on April 2, 2009: For the last three months of 2008, Apple sold 4.4 million iPhones worldwide to roughly 7.5 million units of Research in Motion's BlackBerry. This prediction did not come true, which the community got right. -- The Industry Standard
Apple’s popular iPhone device outsold Research In Motion’s BlackBerry brand for the first time ever in the third quarter.
On a worldwide basis, Apple sold nearly 6.9 million iPhones in the three month period ending September 27. That compares to 6.1 million smartphones sold by RIM.
But RIM is fighting back with the BlackBerry Storm, its first ever touchscreen smartphone, which is due to hit the North American market in the net couple of weeks.
Also, the Blackberry Bold was launched on election day. Furthermore, RIM is planning to launch its own applications store, similar to Apple’s, allowing users to download software designed by third-party developers directly onto their devices.
The crucial fourth quarter looks to be interesting. Apple sales have traditionally been strong in the fourth quarter with its consumer product focus. Corporate budgets are being slashed.
Is Blackberry going to play second fiddle to the Apple iPhone from here on? For this prediction to come true, iPhone sales (in units) must outsell Blackberry's combined sales (in units) for Q4'08 on a worldwide basis.
Price History
Prediction Statistics
| Betting Closes: | Feb 28 2009 | Current Consensus: | 8.71% | Total Bets: | 71 |
| Today's Change: | 0% | ||||
| Life Time High: | 81.00% | ||||
| Life Time Low: | 8.71% |
Comments
Turns out that Apple 3G did not outsell RIM blackberry's in the third quarter of 2008 afterall!
http://blogs.eweek.com/applewatch/content/iphone/rim_puts_apple_in_its_p...
@Marc, nice find. Apple generally have a strong 4Q due to holiday seasons and with 4Q launch into many other countries, this is still entirely possible.
I love when we bet against each other although you have the funds to drive me off the top 10!
@Marc, actually, I did not have an active on this prediction until you drove the % down for an ROI (almost 90%) that is worth the risk. So, I now have a token bet at a more reasonable entry point.
Jan 16 2009 Bet in favor at 53% odds S$299,965.43 <-- new token bet
Dec 04 2008 Cash out at 64% odds S$194,666.98 <-- cashed out to fund bets ending in 2008
Dec 04 2008 Bet in favor at 53% odds S$160,723.56 <-- initial token bet
BTW, I wonder if anyone would complain about the 10M iPhone shipped prediction, which according to the new Gartner report, has indeed been closed prematurely and may not actually be true at all.
David's token bet of $161K is less than 1% bet for you but almost a 10% bet for me. I am mostly out of Yahoo acquires AOL after a nice return. One of the very few times where I expected you lost some dough...
@Marc, some = 1.5M! Yet, with 5months+ to go, I can still see Bartz re-evaluating the benefits. Aside from the usual major properties, AOL also owns Weblogs, Inc which boasts a nice portfolio of web properties (including Engadget, wiith revenue of $30M (5x of the 2005 numbers) that captures quite a bit of "eyeballs".
http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/08/12/18/rim_nears_iphones_sales_wi...
After a symbolic victory over Research in Motion, Apple may have its fortunes reversed as the BlackBerry maker has almost exactly matched iPhone 3G summer sales during the fall.
I have fallen to 5th place! When I look into the reason there is a calculation error in valuing my most recent predictions. Arghhhh! The Standard's Predictive Market financial systems still has problems.
Apple just reported shipping about 4.363M units in 4Q of 2008. A lower and easier target for RIM to beat especially since RIM has provided guidance of a strong 4Q start.
Thanks David. Hope you did not lose much betting against me again.
Win some lose some. No one is perfect. BTW, congrats on breaking $3M. Very soon, you will break $5M for sure.
Thanks David. I am going to have to start learning from you now because probably transitioning from betting the farm on every prediction to a portfolio investment manager. The difference is that my objective is to earn a superior return to the index (market) while you and Bradley are the market!
@Marc, agree on the transitioning. Be advised that no matter what your networth may be, you may still run out of $ for betting as you spread your bets amongst numerous predictions. I had negative "available cash" before end of 2008 as I was completely vested in active bets (over $22M at the time). The market is the market. However, Bradley is the largest market mover. Despite my significant gains in the last few months, he is still not quite within reach.
@Marc, the calculation error you refer to above fixed itself when a chron job ran that night. The market is fine. Your portfolio was not damaged. Just wanted you to know we noticed the issue, looked into it, and it's OK.
@ Marc, when you talk about "Q4 08" do you mean RIM's Q3 fiscal '09, which ends Nov. 29, 2008 or RIM's Q4 fiscal '09, which ends Feb. 28, '09? Just wondering which quarter you are referring to.
Blackberry Storm is off to a bumpy start?
@Yi-Wyn Yen, for Q4-08 I mean calendar October1- December 31, 2008.
Q4 numbers are out reported by IDC but it lumped Apple and RIMM as Others vendors category (with 54M units shipped representing 18.7% market share). All we need is the breakouts of this category for Apple and RIMM for this prediction to be judged. Anyone with IDC subscription?
Readers: In the past 24 hours, we've published two pieces of commentary that I think you will find interesting:
Ian Lamont
Managing Editor
Apple official numbers is 4.36M in Q409 and RIM projected 7.5M-8M sold in Q409. This prediction is a sure bet to be closed unfavorably when actual numbers become available.
More indication that RIM outsold Apple
Yet another survey
Gartner reports shows RIM sold 7.4M units while Apple sold 4.1M units in 4Q08.
Here is official Gartner report
Market Share 2007 (%)
This prediction should be judged UNFAVORABLY now that data is available.
I agree. How is that done? I guess it requires the staff at TIS to push the button.
@Marc, you are exactly right. TIS just need to "push the button" for judgment.
http://madoff-losses-ma.uart.us madoff scandal
@TIS, why isn't this judged yet?
Gartner's report on 4Q sales
@TIS, 2 more weeks have passed. Judgment is way overdue.
@David, I think TIS is trying to lock up our funds so that they can earn interest while delaying the pay out. Banks do this all the time.
@David, @Marc, Happy April Fools! We'll "push the button" tomorrow when RIM reports its actual Q4 '08 numbers.
@Marc, this is nothing compared to the 15 weeks I had to wait for a judgment on the Ad spending will shift from impression to performance-based marketing in 2008. Not only did I have to wait nearly 4 months after bet is closed, when the judgment was made, it was the WRONG judgment!. It cost me about S$1M (S$650K bet and S$350K gain)!!!!! I am still awaiting TIS response to my protest.
Just to make it official, RIMM reports 7.8M units in Q4
Post new comment