Submitted by Ian Lamont05.13.2009
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This prediction is closed and has been judged.
The price of Apple shares have risen sharply from their March lows ($83.11 on March 9) amd there's some question about how much higher they can rise considering the uncertainty surrounding CEO Steve Jobs' health and Apple's top-secret product roadmap.
But Apple's World Wide Developers Conference, slated to start on June 8 and end on June 12, will provide Apple with a chance to show off what it's been working on in several key areas -- and let investors know that it is continuing to innovate, even as Jobs has taken a greatly reduced role running the company during his leave of absence.
Jobs is not scheduled to return from his leave until late June, but his capable executive team will be leading the keynote on June 8. OS X Snow Leopard and iPhone OS updates will be front and center, but there's also been a lot of rumors about potential hardware announcements -- see our predictions about an Apple e-reader and Apple tablet. The conference ends on June 12 -- long enough for analysts, pundits, and consumers to digest any developments or product announcements.
Prediction: Investors will react positively to the announcements at Apple's 2009 World Wide Developer Conference in San Francisco, driving up the price of Apple (AAPL) shares to close at or above $135 between June 8 and the end of trading on June 12. The price hasn't closed at that level since last September, and at the time of this writing is hovering around $120.
Price History
Prediction Statistics
| Betting Closes: | Jun 07 2009 | Current Consensus: | 83.89% | Total Bets: | 26 |
| Today's Change: | 0% | ||||
| Life Time High: | 83.89% | ||||
| Life Time Low: | 27.89% |
Comments
Some players have a lot of money against this bet, despite the fact that the stock is currently around 128, or about $8 above its price on May 13 when I created the prediction.
Or am I missing something? Is there some sort of development that we should know about?
Ian Lamont
Managing Editor
The Industry Standard
twitter.com/ilamont
@Ian, The prediction is judged based on price on the day of the WWDC. Historically, AAPL rises in anticipation of the event but drops on day of event. Given that expectations of new iPhones has somewhat subsided for WWDC, my guess is that it is not as likely as one would think.
David: You are correct -- the price has generally been on a downward trend around the last two major Mac conferences (Macworld in January, and last year's WWDC). AAPL declined at the start both. However, for each of those two events, the price actually had upticks several days after the start -- to more than $185 on June 10, 2008 (about $4 above its June 9 close) and $92.7 on January 8 ($1.69 above its January 7 close.) Then, the price continued its downward slide.
An interesting aside on Apple's share price right before major events: The potential for hedge fund manipulation, driven by rumors from fund managers:
http://www.thestandard.com/news/2009/03/13/jim-cramer-reveals-fomenting-...
Even if Cramer were right, I would imagine that fund managers are a bit more cautious, in light of the fact that this method was exposed and there's a new SEC administration which has talked a great deal about cracking down on abuses.
Ian Lamont
Managing Editor
The Industry Standard
twitter.com/ilamont
Morgan Stanley analyst raised Apple to "overweight" and lifts estimate to $180:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aVcCnEvOt12I
The comment about iPhone demand is interesting.
Ian Lamont
Managing Editor
The Industry Standard
twitter.com/ilamont
Judged. AAPL declined slightly today, but still closed well above $140.
Ian Lamont
Managing Editor
The Industry Standard
twitter.com/the_standard
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