Submitted by Yi-Wyn Yen01.27.2009
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This prediction is closed and has been judged.
Judgment made on February 9, 2009: Amazon's new Kindle 2 is available for pre-order starting Feb. 9 with a shipping date of Feb. 24. In other words, the Kindle 2 is on sale, which 70% of the community got right. -- The Industry Standard
Original prediction: Bloggers are reporting that Amazon will introduce a new version of the Kindle, the electronic book that Oprah deemed her favorite new gadget.
Says Seattle Times blogger Brier Dudley, "Why else would the company be holding a big press conference with Chief Executive Jeff Bezos at the Morgan Library & Museum in New York on Feb. 9?" Hmmm. Interesting.
Prediction: Amazon releases its highly-anticipated next-generation Kindle for sale on Feb. 9.
Image: Atduskgreg's/Flickr
Price History
Prediction Statistics
| Betting Closes: | Feb 08 2009 | Current Consensus: | 70.06% | Total Bets: | 45 |
| Today's Change: | 7.81% | ||||
| Life Time High: | 88.08% | ||||
| Life Time Low: | 38.94% |
Comments
Okay, further confirmation from NYT.
WHY ARE THERE ONLY 5 BETS ON THIS PREDICTION?
"Amazon’s Kindle 2 Will Debut Feb. 9", reports the New York Times.
Leaked Photos of the New Kindle 2.0 posted online at "The Boy Genius Report"
The Los Angeles Times Reports:
"Is a Kindle 2.0 on the way? Amazon.com today set the stage for fingers to start tapping out online rumors about a new version of its e-book reader. The Seattle company sent out invitations for a Feb. 9 press event at the Morgan Library & Museum in New York. The last time Amazon held such an event was in 2007 to introduce the Kindle. 'We're fairly sure that it will be a new Kindle, one that will feature a color screen and a better battery life,' said Richard Doherty, a consumer electronics analyst with the Envisioneering Group."
WHERE ARE ALL THE BETS?
Curious - if Amazon reveals the Kindle 2.0 on February 9, but it doesn't actually go on sale until, say, the following month, some folks are going to lose money on this bet. I could see that distinction causing some hesitation.
Yes, it's almost certain that Amazon will reveal the Kindle 2.0. The prediction remains if it will go on sale that day, too. Keep placing those bets.
There is no problem with this prediction. The Kindle is ALREADY being sold on the Amazon website with a 4-6 week back order. When Amazon announces the updated Kindle 2.0 on Feb. 9th then a favorable judgment will be rendered. The fact that there is a delay in the shipping does not remove the fact that the Kindle 2.0 is BEING SOLD if it is in fact announced on Feb 9. Amazon customers who have already ordered online will have their order fulfilled by the K-2.0
@Edward, there you go again with an all-in bet. Just because Kindle 1.0 is orderable does not mean that Kindle 2.0 will replace the Kindle 1.0 hardware during order fulfillment. I have high confidence that Kindle 2.0 to be announced on Feb 8 press event. I don't have the same confidence that the hardware will be on sale as well. There is a significant possibility that the announcement may indicate a later sale date.
@ David Kuan,
I think that you are attempting to complicate things. It is not complicated.
Amazon does not advertise the Kindle as the "Kindle 1.0"
They are not going to sell the "Kindle 1.0" and the "Kindle 2.0"
The 2.0 is an updated "KINDLE"
Therefore, when they announce it, anyone who buys the KINDLE at amazon.com will be purchasing a KINDLE "2.0" as anyone who orders a kindle isn't going to have it shipped to them for another 4-6 weeks. They have sold out of the Kindle 1.0 - they are not going to manufacture 1.0s to fulfill the current pending back orders. When they ship the online orders in four to six weeks (1 to 1.5 months) they are going to be sending out the 2.0 updated KINDLE.
People can order online, therefore the KINDLE is already being sold.
When they announce the 2.0 this month, then this prediction is fulfilled.
Announced + On Sale = Favorable Judgment (Not Complicated)
@Edward, I am not saying it has no chance of happening. Agree that a Kindle is a Kindle. However, I would only agree with your statement if the following occurs:
1) Announcement is made on Feb 8 (as anticipated) otherwise the argument is moot
2) On Amazon page, the graphics, technical details and Product Descriptions are revised to reflect Kindle 2.0 info.
3) It is indeed orderable
So, yes. It is not complicated but I think all 1) to 3) must be true for favorable judgment.
As of now, the order page is still showing Kindle 1.0. Merchants will get into FTC trouble for sale of merchandise not accurately reflected. There are probably other advertising/marketing related regulations that need to be adhered to as well.
That said, Amazon could easily do the update on page to reflect new Kindle 2.0 (if indeed it is their intention that Kindle 1.0 is end-of-life. If that happens, good for you.
Oops! I meant to say Feb 9 for 1).
500,000 Kindle 1.0 sold according to Citi which is higher than the initial 380,000 estimate. Furthermore, the device has been sold out since November. This prediction is beginning to look more and more likely since Kindle 2.0 was supposed targeted for October '08 release.
Disclosure: I now have a sizeable position on this happening as predicted.
Amazon has UPDATED their Kindle webpage!
"Availability: Expected to ship in 3 to 5 weeks."
Last week, expected shipment had been listed at 4 to 6 weeks; this definitely strengthens the already strong suspicion that Amazon will unveil the Kindle 2.0 on Feb 9th.
@Edward, are you all-in again?
Readers: There is a related piece of analysis about this prediction at the following location:
Kindle 2.0 or 2.No?
Ian Lamont
Managing Editor
@David, to take some of the pressure from Edward, I feel obliged to mention that I have been quite active at betting on this prediction recently...
@David & @Lev,
I've placed a hefty bet in favor of this one - I'm confident that it is going to end in a favorable judgment.
@Edward, no pressure on you at all.
@Lev, LOL!!!
BTW, I am also a guilty party driving it back up (approx S$1M worth). Were you the one that drove it down to the 30%+ (around Feb 2) coz I got in at the bargain %. Then again, I may be throwing away this S$1M if Bezos doesn't come through on Feb 9.
@David, I have been betting on this from the early on, with mostly "for" bets. I took some S$ out when I noticed more advantageous opportunities elsewhere. But at this point, if Bezos doesn't come through, it will be a very unfortunate situation for me. Even though my bet doesn't match yours in value, it more than compensates in proportion to my net worth. :-)
@Edward, I have some confidence in this one, too; but I'll keep my fingers crossed, just in case.
FEBRUARY 6, 2009 – FRESH KINDLE NEWS TODAY!
According to Stephen Windwalker (a Kindle book author), those customers who have bought an original Kindle, but not yet had it delivered because of the supply delays, will be offered an upgrade opportunity to the new Kindle 2 version for around 10% more . The current Kindle retails for $359 (dropped from its $399 launch price) that would put the Kindle 2 at around $395 for those waiting.
Just posted a prediction suggestion for the pricing of Kindle 2.0
Well.. I got cold feet (too much $ at stake). I still think the Feb 9 will be the announcement of Kindle 2.0. However, my hunch is now saying that the sale date is NOT Feb 9 but later.
PC World reports: Leak: Amazon Kindle 2 Pictures and Pricing
Crunch Gear headlines: Purported Kindle 2 images and price leaked
Looks like the Kindle 2.0 will be immediately orderable on the Amazon site, with a shipping availability of 2 to 4 weeks. Note, the current Kindle page has been updated AGAIN by Amazon with the note: Expected to ship in 2 to 4 weeks. This is all part of the hype, it is going to be announced on Monday - there are too many stories, photos, leaks out there. If it wasn't going to happen, Amazon would have made it clear already that it is not the Kindle 2 announcement.
@David,
You should get back in on this one while the community consensus is still low. Logically you know that Amazon is going to capitalize on the Hype that their announcement creates. They're going immediately post the Kindle 2 on their site to take orders and the page will say: "Expected to ship in 2 to 4 weeks." If it can be ordered, it is being sold. I really think that you are going to regret this one (hopefully you didn't waste money betting against it).
@Edward, my hunch has proven me right more times than not. Sure enough, the reported date is now February 24 and not Feb 9. I expect the consensus to drop further given the extended coverage on the 24th date without any dispute. So, will you stay all-in?
The new Kindle 2.0 does look sweet. If only they do away with the physical QWERTY keyboard and somehow make a touchscreen keyboard, it would be even sweeter.
@David,
I am staying in 100%
The 24th is the SHIPPING availability date - this does not preclude the ability for consumers to place orders online prior to the 24th.
If Amazon puts a page up tommorrow to allow consumers to order/buy the Kindle 2.0, then we will see a favorable judgment.
It is absurd to think that Amazon is going to make a super hyped-up announcement Monday and NOT have a page up online to start taking orders for the Kindle 2.0
If it is available to be ordered (even if it is 2 weeks prior to shipment), then it is being sold.
1) It will be announced on Monday, Feb. 9
2) Amazon will have a Kindle 2.0 page online to allow consumers to place orders on Mon., Feb 9
Therefore,
Favorable Judgment is Imminent.
One last thought.
The prediction is that Amazon will release the Kindle 2 for sale on Feb 9.
All Amazon has to do is make it possible for pre-orders to be placed = released for sale.
The consensus with regard to Feb 24 relates to shipment availability, not ordering availability.
@David
I highly suspect that you are looking to drive the community consensus down a bit further before you possibly jump back in on this prediction. According to your comments in the Kindle 2.0 or No? article, you got in Feb 2 at below 40%. You sold off early Feb 7 when it was at around 87%.
If you can get it down to around 40% again and jump back on board at the last minute, well, you'd have made a pretty penny off this prediction.
My recommendation to the community is to buy in now while it is low. If you are in - DO NOT SELL, you are going to lock in the losses that David's reversal has caused. I am 100% positive that Amazon is going to make it possible to order the Kindle 2 on Feb. 9!
THINK: Logically, does it make ANY sense for Amazon not to play off the hype that is going to come with Monday's announcement? They will certainly make the Kindle 2 available on their site the same day (Feb 9) - and they will begin shipping out on the 24th! The fact that it will be available for order on Feb 9 means that the prediction is fulfilled.
If Amazon doesn't post a pre-order page for Kindle 2 on the Feb 9th, the day of its announcement, I will start seriously wondering what was going through the managers' minds when they picked that strategy. It just does not make any sense not to accumulate your pre-orders as early as you can. So, judging by how successful Amazon has been for the past decade, I assume that they will not make such a silly mistake, now.
@Edward, I hope you are right. But your suspicion on me driving the % down is wrong. Here is my bet history on this (full disclosure):
Feb 07 2009 Bet against at 48% odds S$199,975.84 <-- When I see article with Feb 24 info
Feb 07 2009 Cash out at 71% odds S$1,212,627.66 <-- When I got cold feet again on a hunch
Feb 04 2009 Bet in favor at 70% odds S$200,190.10 <-- Added as rumor sentiments increases
Feb 02 2009 Bet in favor at 61% odds S$199,941.11 <-- ROI still ok for additional bet
Feb 02 2009 Bet in favor at 47% odds S$349,963.48 <-- Got in at bargain %. Significant ROI
Feb 01 2009 Bet in favor at 70% odds S$149,995.72 <-- Added as rumor sentiments increases
Jan 31 2009 Bet in favor at 75% odds S$99,995.52 <-- Change of heart. Decided a small token bet
Jan 28 2009 Cash out at 84% odds S$309,893.00 <-- My original hunch of later sale date
Jan 27 2009 Bet in favor at 54% odds S$199,972.98
As you can see, "ROI vs Risk" plays a significant role on my betting decision. With the news about Feb 24 out, the risk went way UP thus making the bet not as attractive at it was previously. The last token bet (ROI of 90%) is made based on gains on cash outs of this bet so risk is minimal.
IMHO, an all-in bet is way too much risk to outweigh the potential ROI (a 99% networth risked at 30%+ potential gains).
According to Amazon.com's Search Tool. The Top-Searches related to Kindle include:
kindle 2.0 release date
kindle 2.0
kindle 2
kindle 2 0
With regard to Availability. It is Important to note the language that Amazon uses on their current Kindle page:
-Please ORDER KINDLE NOW to reserve your place in line.
-We prioritize orders on a first come, first served basis.
There is no question that when we see them announce tommorrow that they are going to allow people to order the same day (putting the shipping date at Feb 23 (2 weeks). And it is likely we will see the same type of language on the Kindle 2 page as the language above.
"This item will be released on February 24, 2009.
Pre-order now!"
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00154JDAI/ref=amb_link_83626371_2?pf_r...
Why was this judged correct? Kindle 2.0 is not on sale as of Feb 9th.
Of course it is. You can buy it today, therefore it's on sale. The fact that it can only be shipped on the 24th has nothing to do with the fact that it is on sale.
@Edward, congrats on your S$100k gain!
@Lev, thanks. Awesome! It was only logical that if they announced they were going to make it available same day!
Since there is no exception placed on pre-order or shipping date, I am in agreement with TIS judgment.
@Edward, twice you stuck to the guns and came out ahead with all-in bets. Very gutsy!
@Lev, I assume you came out ahead quite a bit as well.
Congrats to all who won $ on this bet. Despite my last "against" bet, I still came out ahead overall :)
@Yo, starting Jan. 9, Amazon has begun taking your hard-earned money if you place an order for the Kindle 2. I could see you having a stronger case if Amazon was a brick-and-mortar store and you couldn't get your product that day.
@Lev: You can buy a transgalactic spaceship (from me) today. It will be available by 2109, but I will take your money today.
So does that mean we've entered the era of private transgalactic spaceships, which are now available?
I don't really see the difference between online and offline store. We know Wii is available, even though it's very unlikely that my local Best Buy has it today.
See my point above in reply to Lev - what kind of pre-order gap would you tolerate to consider the product available, when it was just announced? 14 days? 28 days? 3 months? 6 months? 12 months? 10 years?
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