AAPL closes below $140 on July 20, 2009?

The price of Apple, Inc. stock remained in a $10 range from the beginning of June to early July, never closing above $144. As of this writing, it is below $137. Will AAPL manage to break out in the next few weeks?

Despite analysts' "overweight" consensus and average target price of $160, there is still a lot of uncertainty surrounding the company's business. On July 21, Apple will release its quarterly earnings, but there are factors weighing on the stock. Besides the ongoing recession and the impact on consumer spending, Apple has a few lagging product lines -- Mac desktop sales dropped 22% in the last quarterly earnings report, and even laptops showed signs of revenue weakness as consumers gravitated toward cheaper MacBooks. In addition, while Steve Jobs is back at work, there are lingering concerns over his long-term health outlook and reported SEC "interest" in whether the company misled investors early in the year, before Jobs announced his leave of absense.

Prediction: AAPL closes below $140 on July 20, 2009.  

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