Submitted by The Standard06.19.2008
Thunderdome
Loading...
Categories
This prediction is closed and has been judged.
Judgment on July 18, 2008:
After watching this exciting horse race go back and forth for several days, we have finally crossed the finish line. And, the winner is: the Industry Standard community. You correctly predicted (nice going, Kevin Railsback!) that this would indeed not occur in the allotted timeframe within the specific rules that were given. Most importantly in the judgment, no carrier other than AT&T has been verified on a 3G iPhone when the prediction closed. Judged at S$0. – The Industry Standard
Original prediction:
The first iPhone firmware needed over two months to be jailbroken, the second and third were done in a matter of days, and later versions within a few weeks.
This time hackers are getting a head start with the iPhone 2.0 beta firmware released along with the SDK.
While the need to jailbreak an iPhone may be lessened by the appearance of the App Store, there still will be plenty of programs that will not want to follow Apple’s rules to qualify for the store. Also, of course, demand for using the iPhone on other networks will only increase with a new, cheaper iPhone.
In order for this bet to be judged favorably, the iPhone 2.0 firmware must be fully jailbroken. That is, a jailbroken 3G iPhone should be able to have non-Apple approved applications and use other carriers besides AT&T. It must happen within one week, from the July 11th store availability through July 18th.
Judgement will occur after the week has expired, or earlier if the event occurs and is confirmed in the main stream media.
Prediction Statistics
| Betting Closes: | Jul 18 2008 | Current Consensus: | 9.98% | Total Bets: | 178 |
| Today's Change: | -26.61% | ||||
| Life Time High: | 92.06% | ||||
| Life Time Low: | 5.47% |
Most Active Predictions
Suggest a Prediction
If a suggestion you submit to The Exchange is accepted, your account will receive S$25,000.00 Standard dollars
Suggest Predictions View all suggestionsFree White Papers
- The Missing Link White Paper Driving Business Results Through Pay-for-Performance
- Changing the Game White Paper 4 Ways to Unlock Your Employees’ Performance Potential
- 9 Critical Reasons to Automate Performance Management
- Driving Success White Paper The Incredible Power of Company-Wide Goal Alignment
- Roadmap to Success White Paper Driving Bottom-Line Results with People Performance
RSS Feeds
Main Feed
Views & Analysis (all contributors)
Latest News (all contributors)
The Industry Standard News (no 3rd-party contributions)
Predictions
All Site Comments
Comments
@Standard, need clarification on the verbiage of "use other carriers besides AT&T". Is it the intention that this is a prediction that a jailbroken iPhone 2.0 can be used in another US wireless carrier? If so, it almost means it can work in T-Mobile which has only started rolling out their HSDPA enhancement to their infrastructure. This almost make this criteria more challenging to meet (i.e. harder to prove).
The ability to use other networks doesn't necessarily mean it has to use their 3G network... the new iphone still has 2G compatibility. Basically for this prediction to be made true, you need to be able to plug in a non-AT&T sim and make calls, not cruise the web.
@Chris, agree on 2G compatibility. But to be truly jailbroken, it should be able to use a non-AT&T 3G network. That is why I am asking for clarification. If the prediction had been stated as the use of a non-AT&T (i.e. T-Mobile) SIM in the iPhone 3G, then there is no room for misinterpretation.
So, while the title just says "jailbroken within a week", what the details imply is that this prediction is for both Jailbroken and Unlocked. My iPhone is jailbroken, but I've never had any desire or need to unlock it, they're two different things.
Jailbroken = can run 3rd party apps
Unlocked = activated without AT&T, can put in other GSM SIMs
Since this prediction says it must be both jailbroken and unlocked to be judged as true, I'll be betting against. Since even with an unlocked iPhone, it won't work on T-Mobile's 3G network (different frequencies), I don't think there is going o be enough impetus to do a full unlock within a week. It has historically taken more time than that with just the 1.1.x updates.
Of course that's just my opinion - maybe I'll be wrong and lose my shirt. =)
@Kevin, I see you have just piled up a large against bet (driving the % significantly lower). You're echoing my original request for clarification (which did not happen).
A few technical notes to point out though ....
Jailbroken - this is something that has been proven time and time again that the calibers of jailbreakers are top notch and has been able to render the support for 3rd party app.
Unlocked - there is a phenomenon called transhipment ( amajor pain in the @#$ to wireless carriers) where handsets are pruchased at discounts, re-provisionied and re-programmed (in the case of wireless) to work with a SIM from a different carrier and be able to operate in that operator's network. Transhipment devices are then sold at higher prices due to demands (see eBay for example of the supply of unlocked devices for sale). As for frequencies, those can be tweak through manual programming. None of unlocking steps requires a firmware re-flash. The folks that do transhipment are also fairly adept.
So, technically, both are doable. It is questionable if it can be done in 1 week however.My original question still stands, iPhones debut around the world on July 11 and AT&T is just one of the carriers. The statement of "other than AT&T" is therefore vague since it is not qualified for US market only. It is also unclear as to whether it requires both voice and 3G data to work on a non-AT&T network.
@Kevin
As the details imply, yes it must be both jailbroken AND unlocked within one week.
@Kuan
As I clarified earlier, unlocked only means the ability to make calls on another carrier besides AT&T, not use data. This will be judged based on the U.S. market, due to the fact that Apple will be selling unlocked iPhones in Italy and France, per their law.
@Chris, thanks for the clarification.
http://news.cnet.com/8301-13579_3-9980676-37.html?tag=cnetfd.mt
I could see this news actually going either way, unlike the author. The new software could be successful, or as one commenter notes, could be distributed on BitTorrent and make unlocking the phone a one step process.
@Chris. Thanks for the find. I see this as increasing the chances of the prediction to be judged favorably. Ready made utlity that are distributed has a high chance of being leaked. The fact that distribution is done before launch means the jailbreaking efforts may have a headstart.
this stock has been fluctuating wildly throughout its life. The time starts friday morning at 8am.
Actually, the time may have already started (since some luckly blokes have gotten their hands on it (we have all seen the unboxed pix from Europe). So, hackers/crackers may already be at work at jailbreaking the 3G iPhone.
http://www.ipodtouchfans.com/forums/showthread.php?t=77156
Looks like the 2.0 firmware already jailbroken, so its a pretty good forward step, now it needs to be unlocked on the 3G phone for calls, which may take longer
I use unlocked & jailbroken 8GB iPhone 1.1.4 (1st Generation iPhone).
If I upgrade my iPhone firmware to 1.2, will it make my iPhone locked or bricked?
Is it safe for me to run iTune 7.7 and update my firware of my older versio of the unlocked iPhone?
Thanks for your clarifications
@Ramchi, it might be better to post the question to the iPhone Dev Team directly. You can find them at the hackint0sh IRC network at irc://irc.osx86.hu/iphone-dev . Otherwise, you might end up with an expensive brick :)
As suspected, the in-store acrtivation tool has made it to BitTorrent. Link available here. The countdown has started.
http://gizmodo.com/5023971/iphone-os-20-unlocked-yes
old phone, but the new hardware on the 3G will make it a whole different story
I fully agree that they'll be able to unlock it, eventually. But I also don't underestimate the Apple hardware engineers. They've had a lot of time to come up with a much more robust encryption and signing mechanism in the new iPhone 3G radio firmware.
The jailbreak and unlock of first-gen iPhones using the 2.0 software was a given, they've been able to do that since the first beta leaked out. But that doesn't mean they'll be able to crack the iPhone 3G's new chipset within a week. It could happen, but I'm willing to risk it to see. It'll be fun to watch. =)
Having owned Apple products of various sorts I've long held the suspicion they maintain only the most basic due diligence with regard to copyright and software protections as long as it is not their money on the line. They only play at being a software company.
Granted, that's easier for me to say now the prediction's over .5 .
Right, which is why jailbreaks and getting around the iTunes DRM is farily easy. However, when it comes to the unlocking that cost them a lot of lost revenue last time around, and I'm sure they had to put forth a pretty serious effort this time to keep that to a minimum.
Of course, other than the cool factor, there isn't a huge need for unlocking the like there was the first time around. You're either going to activate in store (and have the contract to deal with anyway) or you have to pay the $599 price and they unlock it for you.
Since it's up over 50%, now's the time to bet against to make the real big bucks. I should have reserved some cash to do so. =)
@Kevin, i admire your conviction as well as your large bet on this. While I agree with the added focus on securing the new iPhone by the Apple designers, they were also working against an extremely tight production schedule to supply and launch it worldwide. The amount of due diligence therefore has to be balanced with other aspects (e.g. software). I also do not second guess the caliber of the "hackers" around the world who all want to claim (for fame) to be the first to jailbreak and unlock the iPhone 3G.
That said, I have exercised my winnings and stay on the sidelines to see how this will fare but may make another play should the odds turns attractive relative to risk. :)
MacRumors.com appears to say that it's been done already - before the phone is even out in the USA.
There are plenty of news about Unlocked phone outside of US. The reason for that is that the arrangement between Apple and the carriers to meet regulatory constraints mandates the phones to be sold UNLOCKED at non-discounted pricing. That does NOT meet the requirements of this prediction. The criteria is that an iPhone 3G sold in the US (locked to AT&T carrier) can be JAILBROKEN (to use 3rd party app) and UNLOCKED (able to use T-Mobile SIM).
That said, at the moment, the Jailbreaking by iPhone Dev Team has yet to be verified. To me, it would seem like the best/fastest possible way to unlock the phone is through dissecting the activation utility and mod it to be an unlocking utility (as the unlocking part of the code is already in the utility).
OK OK. My arm was twisted. At 86%, I am in with an against token bet (risk is worth it now). Recent news has been on 1st Gen phone unlocking/jailbreaking with iPhone 2.0. We have YET to hear anything about iPhone 3G unlocking/jailbreaking.
iPhone 3G unlocking to be harder
:) David, you should have bet this morning, at 92%. It's interesting to notice how many lamers around the web forums are 99% sure that it will be done on the first day. As for me, it's been a nice ride :-)
@Lev, I see you have done nicely yourself last few days. I wished I have seen it at 92% today but alas there is no alert notification that can be set (eg when a prediction dips below or rise above a certain %).
Yet another pessimistic perpective on unlocking
David, yep, unfortunately there is no such alert service (unless you're willing to create a smart client which would do this for you..) As far as the article goes, news writers love to go to the extremes! The fact of the matter is, crackers do this more for the sake of cracking, rather than because there is high demand for it. The higher the challenge, the higher the urge.
David, yep, unfortunately there is no such alert service (unless you're willing to create a smart client which would do this for you..) As far as the article goes, news writers love to go to the extremes! The fact of the matter is, crackers do this more for the sake of cracking, rather than because there is high demand for it. The higher the challenge, the higher the urge.
Been reported that they have been unlocked and jailbroke by mac rumors, CNET, PC world and many others. That's why it went to 90% and above. Looks like many of you are losing money on this. Better start flip flopping before its judged.
One story says the iphone has to be activated at the store but they didn't expect so many problems with the itunes servers. Mac Rumors has reported "Apple is having major delays with their iTunes activation servers and a number of people have reported that Apple has simply let them go home to finish the activation process. Overnight, U.K. customers had similar problems with activation." This should be judged. Judgements need to be made quickly or have the betting close earlier if they can not be judged quickly enough. Making it too easy to simply read the news to make a judgement that should of been done sooner.
Try this, if you have the nerve:
As of writing this, the consensus is 77%. Bet against. As the week proceeds, people who have bet in favor will cut their losses and begin to cash out. This will increase your cash-out value. Hold on as long you dare, then cash out with a profit. The only risk, which is admittedly huge, is that the iPhone may actually be jailbroken. However, if you time it right, you can then bet in favor before the prediction is judged - getting an even bigger profit.
(I would jump in the fray, but all my cash is tied up. Guess I'll just spectate from the sidelines)
@Cade, check those articles from MacRumor, CNET, etc. If you read it carefully, it talks about jailbreak. Any unlocking was still done on 1st gen iPhone. At this time, there is NO verifiable iPhone 3G in the US that has been jailbroken and unlocked. If I am wrong, then please post the URL that indicate otherwise. Folks in US are still reeling from the disasterous launch with failure to activate and lots of waiting. Think they would risk their phone to some unlocking utlity (which doesnt exists yet)? How many are willing the risk of a new "brick"?
I have flip flopped this several times (for and against) and came out ahead. This prediction % will continue to flip flop and as such presents opportunity to make a little $. It is all about risk/reward ratio to maximize ROI. That said, many will be losing plenty of $ regardless of which judgement prevails.
@Lucas, I am in agreement that bets should have been closed on Thursday to prevent last minute play based on confirmed news. Generally, I propose closing bet at least 1 week before judgement.day.
@Lev, how did you like your new iTouch (courtesy of Standard)? I am still waiting for my Kindle :)
David, it was the perfect timing actually. I thought about buying one for a while, and now I don't need to! Yourself? Exited about the Kindle? :D
Yeah should of been closed and as far as the jailbreak working on a 3g iphone. It's the same hardware except for the 3g and GPS. And is thought that the leaked 2.0 software that Mac Rumors made available was for the 3g version of the phone which worked on the 1st gen. phones. Software is almost identical cause the hardware is identical. Expect the pwnage software after the weekend which will work on 1st gen. phones,3g, and ipod touch.
@ Shiv I tend to stick with my predictions and expect them to be closed at the right time rather than circling like a buzzard in the sky as people make bad choices on a prediction that should of been closed days ago. I have done ok this way :)
Oh what I've outlined is just speculating. You're talking about solid investing, which is undeniably superior. No, I'm suggesting something for people with a little extra cash to play with. The reason all my cash is tied up is because its staying there till the end of the bet.
@Lucas, this prediction hasn't met all of the requirements to be closed yet at this point. In order for us to judge this prediction early, we need solid verification that someone has been able to get the iPhone to work on a carrier other than AT&T. There is no single article out there that can actually verify this at this time that we know of. We're watching this very closely. If you know something we don't, please post the link. It's half-way there. Thanks!
FYI guys, we're looking into building an alert system like this for all predictions. Let us know what you think.
If I am not mistaken, this prediction is not even 1/2 way to closure. What has been put out is some news about iPhone Dev team having been able to jailbreak IPhone 2.0 on 1st gen iPhone. The article at http://news.cnet.com/8301-17938_105-9987979-1.html?hhTest=1 talks about 1st gen! Check the video at http://www.modmyifone.com/forums/news/230451-2-0-3g-iphone-jailbreak-vid.... The utlity is for 1st gen iPhone or iTouch with firmware 1.1.4 or 2.0.
@Lucas, we have no proof that hardware for iPhone and iPhone 3G are identifical. In fact, I am guessing that Apple has done some changes to make unlocking more challenging, improved integration with GPS chip, GPS antenna and enhanced battery.
@Lev and @Eric, just got the Kindle!
@Eric, something like Yahoo alerts would be nice (be able to send via SMS to mobile, email, or IM. Another add-on to consider is an alert within Standard (where upon login, a popup after successful signon or refresh).
@ Eric, why stop there? What about being able to automatically buy or sell when certain parameters have been met. e.g if you have x amount of available cash and the consensus drops to 50%
P.S. You don't have a networth anymore?
http://www.iphoneinfused.com/ppc.cfm?gclid=CNrGwO6OvZQCFRLoxgodmFa5Rw
Says 3g shows a 3g phone and dock.
@ eric How about a widget with alerts? Possibly with growl notifications for OS X users.
@Lucas, I am looking at the video and it is still showing a 1st gen phone being unlocked. I do see the claim that it includes the ability to do on 3G but there is still no hard proof as yet (that I see).
@Lucas, I am looking at the video and it is still showing a 1st gen phone being unlocked. I do see the claim that it includes the ability to do on 3G but there is still no hard proof as yet (that I see).
Reading the FAQ from http://www.iphoneinfused.com/support.cfm, it says:
Q: How can I check my iPhone's Firmware Version?
A: You can check what firmware is preinstalled by going to the emergency call, entering *3001#12345#* then pressing "Call". Under Versions you will find what revision firmware is on the phone out of the box.
03.12.06_G is firmware 1.0.0
03.14.08_G is firmware 1.0.1 and 1.02
04.01.13_G is firmware 1.1.1
04.02.04_G is firmware 1.1.1
04.02.13_G is firmware 1.1.2
04.03.13_G is firmware 1.1.3
04.04.05_G is firmware 1.1.4
Hmm... not iPhone 2.0 :)
A few more links ...
http://iphonejtag.blogspot.com/2008/07/iphone-3g-unlocked.html
http://www.itwire.com/content/view/19419/1103/
At 90%, I am willing to place an against bet that there will be an unquestionable proof that this prediction has come true by this Friday.
Trouble brewing in iPhone 3G hacking land
blog.iphone-dev.org
Just as soon as I placed an against bet ... someone else placed another dropping it to 75%. Guess I have to take my winnings again :)
It seams like the iphone.dev team already unlocked and jailbroke the 3G and what they are doing now is fixing the potential glitches that might come up when an unexperienced user tries to use the PwnageTool 2.0. It's a QA issue, really! :)
Here's an excerpt from their blog: "We are testing it to make sure it’s as glitch-free as we can make it. We want to avoid releasing something that turns expensive phones into pretty looking paperweights."
So, the question is, will they be able to release a bug-free version by Friday... ))
Post new comment